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区域经济差异识别及预警研究

Study on Identification and Early Warning in Regional Economic Disparities

【作者】 张彻

【导师】 邱力生;

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 , 政治经济学, 2010, 博士

【摘要】 区域经济差异是世界普遍存在的问题,一直为国际国内专家学者、政府所关注。20世纪中后期以来,世界南北经济差距不断扩大,国内东、中、西区域经济差距也呈上升走势。21世纪随着经济全球化、网络化及知识经济的快速发展,世界区域经济差异仍不会消除,而中国区域经济虽因政府实施区域经济协调发展战略、出台系列推进区域经济协调发展的产业、科技、投资、税收及金融政策,但区域问经济差距的缩小尚待时日,区域间的差异化发展态势仍将持续,研究我国区域经济差异的识别及预警,切合我国实际,具有较强现实意义。区域经济差异的形成有国家政策层面的外因,根本取决于区域内资源要素相互作用的内因。基于分工与协作及市场经济利益驱动原理,区域生产要素内生集聚与分离,形成不同的要素群落及区域板块;区域科技创新的突变会推进区域板块的形成及差异加剧,区域板块的演进呈现生物及生物群落演进的相似特征。世界及我国发展历史表明,不同区域板块经济差异是必然存在,而且板块间经济差异遵循先扩大后趋于缩小的循环反复规律。因此,进行区域经济差异识别,构建区域经济差异评价指标体系及评价模型,设计区域经济差异预警系统及确定差异标准态,以此探索区域经济协调发展的路径具有理论价值。随着区域经济理论研究的不断深入,区域经济差异的研究成果日益丰富。目前国内外学术界主要从区域经济差异的形成成因、现状评价、应对战略措施等方面做了大量研究,取得了丰硕的研究成果。论文在这些研究成果的基础上,依托经济学、区域经济学、产业经济学理论知识,借鉴生态科学、系统工程等理论方法,以“区域经济差异识别及预警研究”为题,进一步探索区域经济差异形成原理,梳理并设计区域经济差异识别指标体系及模型,构造区域经济差异预警系统,寻求区域经济协调发展的路径等,丰富和完善区域经济学理论和方法。论文从区域经济差异角度研究区域经济问题。首先,对区域经济发展的生态科学原理进行探索,揭示了区域经济形成的生命周期、生物群落原理和区域协调发展的生态原理。其次,界定了区域经济差异,给出区域经济差异识别的指标体系及识别的方法模型。第三,对区域经济差异的合理利用进行研究,围绕区域经济差异预警,给出了区域经济差异合理阀值,供决策者利用。第四,以我国区域及四大区域板块为例进行实证研究,揭示了我国区域经济差异现状及四大区域板块区域经济差异现状。第五,借鉴国外如美国,巴西,印度的区域差异与协调发展的经验和措施,启示我国区域的和谐发展。最后,探索性研究了区域协调发展的路径模式,结合中部实际给出了中部区域协调发展的战略及对策建议。论文共分七个部分。第一章绪论部分指出了论文选题的背景及研究的意义,认为区域经济差异是客观存在、不可避免的,也是区域经济发展过程中不可回避的问题,只有科学的分析、识别区域差异并有效的加以利用才是上策。第二章是区域经济发展的生态科学原理,探索了区域经济发展的生命周期原理、生物群落原理和区域经济协调发展的生态原理。第三章是区域经济及区域经济差异相关文献综述,对国内外区域经济发展、区域经济差异有关理论研究进行了回顾,分析总结,主要包括区域经济差异发展战略理论、区域差异成因理论研究、区域经济差异评价理论等。第四章是区域经济差异及识别,在界定区域经济差异的基础上,给出了区域经济差异的识别指标及模型。第六章是区域经济差异预警分析,给出了区域经济差异状态监测、预测系统,通过一定的模型方法对区域经济差异发展状态进行评价,对区域经济差异变动及其趋势进行预测,确定区域经济差异的警限,对区域经济差异偏离正常、合理、适度状态的警情进行预报,对区域经济差异过大可能引发的重大经济、社会和民族问题提前发出警报,以预防可能出现的警情;主要包括区域经济差异预警系统设计、区域经济差异的监测系统研究、区域经济差异预警标准的设定、区域经济差异预警、区域经济差异监测与预警系统的运行管理。第五章是我国及四大区域板块区域经济差异实证分析,主要考察了我国及四大区域经济差异现状,对我国及四大区域板块经济差异进行了评价及走势分析。第七章是区域经济协调发展的路径,给出了区域协调发展的点线面路径、软硬路径。政府是区域经济宏观调控的主体,通过政策联动促进区域经济协调发展,属于“软”路径;“硬”路径主要是指基础设施的建设,为区域协调发展提供便利的交通、物流、信息化发展平台。“软”路径与“硬”为区域经济协调发展提供了保证;区域经济协调发展的“点”路径为资源要素共享,产业分工协作、衔接与转移为“线”路径,城市群、圈、带一体化发展为“面”路径。据此给出了中部区域经济协调发展战略。

【Abstract】 Regional economic differences are the world’s a common problem, has been the international and domestic experts and scholars, the government concerned. Since the late 20th century, with expansion of the world economic gap between north and south, economic disparities also showed widening that the domestic eastern、central-china and western regions. As the 21st century, economic globalization and regional economic and technological integration, networking and the rapid development of knowledge-based economy, the world will not eliminate differences in the regional economy, in the short term there is still growing that China’s regional economic disparities, despite the Government’s implementation of regional economic coordination development strategy, published series to promote coordinated regional economic development industry, science and technology, investment, taxation and financial policies, inter-regional economic disparities narrowed still to, inter-regional differences of development trend can not be eliminated, research of China’s regional economic disparities related issues, with China’s reality and has strong practical significance.The formation of regional economic disparities in national policy-level external factors, the fundamental elements of the interaction depends on the resources of the region’s internal.Based on the division of labor and cooperation and market-driven principles of economic interests, regional endogenous factors of production is concentration and separation, the formation of the different elements of community and regional plate; regional scientific and technological innovation and the mutation that would advance the regional differences in plate formation and intensification, regional plate showing the evolution of life scientific characteristics. Regional economic disparities are an objective existence, but it can not be completely eliminated. World and China’s development history has shown that different regions of the plates is an inevitable differences exist, and differences between the plates to follow the trend of narrowing the first cycle of the expanded law repeatedly. Therefore, regional economic disparities to identify, build regional economic disparities evaluation index system and evaluation model of regional economic differences, and design of early warning systems and to determine differences in standard states, in order to explore the path of regional economic coordinated development. This research has the theoretical value.With theoretical research of the regional economy continued to deepen, regional economic disparities research increasingly rich. Academic circles at home and abroad, mainly from the formation of regional economic differences, status evaluation, coping strategies, measures, etc. have done a great deal of research has yielded fruitful research results. Paper in based on the results of these studies, drawing on life sciences, engineering and other theoretical approaches, "regional economic disparities in the identification and early warning research" as a theme and further explore the formation of regional economic disparities in the principle of combing and design identify the indicators of regional economic disparities and model, constructed of regional economic differences in early warning systems, to seek the path of regional economic coordinated development and so on, to enrich and improve the regional economic theory and methods.Papers from the perspective of regional economic disparities study regional economic issues. First, explore scientific principles of life in regional economic development, revealing the formation of regional economic life cycle, biological communities and regional coordinated development of the principles of ecological principles. Second, paper have given the definition of regional economic differences, design the regional economic disparities identification index system and method of model identification, and empirical analysis of regional economic differences. Thirdly, research on the rational utilization of regional economic disparities, On the warning of regional economic disparities, given the regional economic disparities and reasonable threshold for use by policy makers. Finally, the central region as an example, empirical research has revealed differences in the central regional economic status, given the coordinated development of the central region of the countermeasures and proposals. Paper is divided into seven sections. The introductory part Pointed out the background papers and research topics of significance that the regional economic disparities is an objective reality, inevitable, and it is the process of regional economic development issues can not be avoided, and only scientific analysis to identify regional differences and effectively make use of is the best way. The first chapter is the relevant literature review of regional economic and regional economic disparities in on the domestic and abroad about regional economic development, regional economic disparities related theoretical studies were reviewed, analyzed and summarized the main differences in regional economic development strategy, including the theory of the causes of regional differences in theoretical research, regional economic differences in evaluation theory. Chapter II is scientific principles of life of regional economic development, explored the life cycle of regional economic development theory, principles of biological communities and regional economic coordinated development of the ecological principle. Chapter III is a regional economic difference and to identify, in defining the regional economic disparities based on regional economic disparities is given the identification of indicators and models, and China’s regional economic differences in empirical studies. Chapter IV is a regional economic differences in early warning, given the state of regional economic differences in monitoring, prediction systems, by means of some of the model approach to regional economic disparities in the development of the state to evaluate the changes in the regional economic disparities and their trends to predict, the identification of regional economic disparities The police limits on regional economic disparities deviate from the normal, reasonable and appropriate to predict the state of police intelligence on the regional economic disparity is too large may lead to significant economic, social and ethnic problems in advance alert to prevent possible police intelligence; the main including the regional economic disparities in early-warning systems design, the monitoring system of regional economic disparities research, regional economic disparities in the standard setting of early warning, early warning of regional economic disparities, regional economic differences in monitoring and early warning systems operation and management. Chapter V is a regional economic coordinated development path, given the development of regional coordination point, line and plane path, hard and soft paths.Government is the main body of the regional economic macro-control through policies to promote regional economic coordinated development of the linkage, are "soft" path; "hard" path mainly refers to the infrastructure, in order to facilitate the coordinated development of regional transportation, logistics, information technology development platform. "Soft" path and "hard" for the coordinated development of regional economy provided a guarantee; regional economic coordinated development of the "dot" path for the resource elements sharing, division of labor cooperation, convergence and transfer as a "line" path, urban groups, rings, belt the integrated development of the "side" path. ChapterⅥof China’s four regional blocks and central coordination of regional economic development strategy of differences in empirical research mainly to study the regional economy of China’s four major differences in the status quo, sections of China’s four major regional differences in the economic evaluation and trend analysis, is given accordingly of the Central Regional Economic Development Strategy.

  • 【网络出版投稿人】 武汉大学
  • 【网络出版年期】2010年 10期
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