【作者】 石红莲；

【导师】 周茂荣；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 国际贸易， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 气候变化已经成为全球关注的热点问题。自工业革命以来,人类社会对化石能源的大量使用导致温室气体排放量急剧增加,引起了全球变暖。全球变暖引发了许多极端自然事件的发生,如洪水、旱灾、海平面上升和生物多样性的减少,这些都正在改变着地球生态系统,威胁到人类的生存和发展。发展低碳经济和新能源可以减缓全球变暖。中国和美国,作为世界上最大的能源消耗国和最大的温室气体排放国,已经成为世界关注的焦点,两国面临着巨大的温室气体减排压力。为此,中美两国必须在应对气候变化与能源安全领域加强合作,一方面可以减少温室气体大量排放对全球气候的变化不利影响,并为全球气候协议的达成作出贡献；另一方面也有利于两国经济的发展和能源的安全稳定,使未来的中美关系建立在更稳固的基础上,以应对两国在二十一世纪面临的其它战略性挑战。全文共六章。第一章为绪论,首先介绍了本文的写作背景及选题的意义,然后对本文涉及的国内外研究现状进行了分析,进而阐述了本文的写作思路、研究方法、文章结构及主要创新点。第二章主要论述了低碳经济时代中美气候与能源合作所涉及的主要理论和原则。气候变化问题作为全球关注的重要问题,各国必须采取措施减少温室气体排放。温室气体排放具有公共物品属性,从而涉及到“公地悲剧”问题。本文用气候模型分析了气候变化的“公地悲剧”问题。要克服温室气体排放“公地悲剧”,就需要各国合作,使温室气体排放的外部性实现内部化,从而减少其过度使用的问题。中美气候与能源合作交织着双方的利益和纠纷的博弈。本文在基本博弈模型的基础上,对中美气候与能源合作中温室气体减排所涉及的资金或技术支持问题和美国拟征收碳关税问题进行了博弈分析,得出美国应向中国等发展中国家提供技术和资金支持,从而使中国更有意愿参与而且能够参与全球温室气体减排。对于美国拟征收的碳关税,中美博弈结果取决于美国征收碳关税对中国经济的影响程度及双方的谈判能力。由于各国经济发展阶段不同,碳排放也存在很大差异,碳排放的库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)很好地对美国和中国的经济发展阶段与碳排放关系进行了说明,即中国和美国分别处于碳排放EKC的不同阶段,双方的碳减排承诺也应有所区别。美国因跨越了EKC人均排放峰值,因此美国应在碳排放总量和人均碳排放量方面进行减排,中国只跨越了碳排放强度峰值,但还未达到人均排放峰值,目前还不能承担碳排放的总量减排,但应在碳排放相对量(即单位GDP碳排放)方面承诺减排。在中美气候与能源合作中,双方应坚持可持续发展原则,“共同但有区别的责任”原则和碳排放的公平分担原则。第三章主要论述了中美气候与能源合作的现状。气候变化对世界及中美都造成了严重的不利影响,面对这种不利影响,中美两国必须发展低碳经济。为了应对气候变化和能源安全的挑战,中美两国已经制定了发展低碳经济计划、法规等,为中美气候与能源合作提供了基础。为此,中美两国在气候和能源领域开展了一系列的双边和多边合作,尤其从2009年以来,中美两国进行了密集的气候外交,为两国气候与能源深化合作奠定了坚实的基础。第四章主要论述了中美双方在能源和气候变化领域存在的分歧和矛盾,重点分析了中美双方在气候变化领域存在的分歧。中美双方对对方的不信任长期存在,表现在气候变化领域,双方主要在中国应在碳排放的绝对量还是相对量减排方面、在应对气候变化的技术资金支持方面及其与“三可”(可测量、可报告、可核实)挂钩方面、在对“共同但有区别的责任”原则理解方面以及在美国拟征收碳关税等方面的存在许多分歧。第五章进一步实证分析了基于分歧的中国对美等国家出口产品隐含碳排放。随着应对气候变化问题在全球的升温,学术界近年来对隐含碳排放的关注也越来越多。本文在现有理论的基础上,运用投入产出分析工具,实证分析了中国对美国出口产品的隐含碳排放。从而得出,中国作为“世界工厂”,随着对外贸易的迅速发展,中国在大量出口产品的同时也出口了许多隐含碳排放。导致中国在商品贸易方面处于顺差,但在碳排放方面则处于逆差。这些隐含碳消耗了中国的大量能源、排放了大量CO2,而这些能源和CO2却全部附着在出口产品和相应的服务上,并最终销售到美国等国外市场,即由美国等外国消费者消费了大量目前统计在中国的能源和碳排放。因此,在开发经济条件下,以前基于生产的碳排放的统计体系应该在新时期作出适当的调整。第六章主要对中国参与中美气候与能源合作中碳排放量快速上升的原因进行了分析,并提出了中国参与中美气候变化和能源合作应采取的措施。低碳经济时代,中美气候与能源合作是大势所趋,中美应进一步加强气候与能源合作。论文通过对当前的热点问题低碳经济时代中美气候与能源合作的新进展和存在的分歧进行了系统性分析,可以看出发展低碳经济可以达到应对气候变化和实现能源安全的双重目的。中美两国作为化石能源生产和消费大国,对全球气候变暖负有巨大责任,两国开展气候与能源合作不仅必要,而且可以实现双方的互利互补。当然,我们也应看到,发展低碳经济涉及各国之间和国家内部各种利益关系的调整,这就决定了中美两国气候与能源合作的过程必然充满矛盾、分歧和冲突,在整个合作过程中各方激烈博弈在所难免。当双方产生意见分歧、存在矛盾时,需要双方加强沟通和理解,彼此照顾对方的核心利益,求大同存小异,从维护中美经贸关系发展的大局出发,按照《联合国气候变化框架公约》“共同但有区别的责任”原则,努力通过协商使矛盾得到解决,而不应动辄搞贸易报复或采取贸易保护主义。在经济全球化不断向前发展、中美经贸关系已发展成为当今世界最为重要也最为复杂的双边关系的条件下,中美两国和则两利多赢,斗则两败俱伤。更多还原

【Abstract】 Climate change has become a hot issue of the world. Since the industrial revolution, human using lots of fossil fuels led to a sharp increase of emissions of greenhouse gases and caused warming of the globe. Global warming caused a lot of extreme natural events such as floods, droughts, sea level rise and the reduction of biodiversity, which are changing the global ecological system and threatening life and development of people. Development of low carbon economy and new energy can mitigate global warming. China and the United States, as the world’s largest consumers of energy and the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, have become the focus of the world. The two countries also face enormous pressure on greenhouse gas mitigation. On one hand, the two countries need to cooperate to reduce climate change and to ensure energy security, on the other hand, the climate change and energy of the cooperation Sino-U.S. can reduce the nective effects of global climate change by a lots of emission of greenhouse gas and reach agreement of global climate change. This will contribute economic development and energy security and stability of China and the United States and build the solid relation of Sino-US and to deal with the strategic challenges of the two countries in the twenty-first century. The dissertation composes of six chapters.The Chapter 1 introduces the research background and the research significance, the domestic and overseas research progress in this area, the research content, the research method and the research innovation.The Chapter 2 discusses the major theories and principles of Sino-U.S. climate change and energy cooperation in the era of low carbon economy. As a global important issue, climate change relates to reducing of greenhouse gas emission which connects the public goods. Greenhouse gas has properties of public goods which involves the "the tragedy of the commons" problem. This article analyzes climate change "tragedy of the commons" by use of models of greenhouse gas emission, and then conclude that if countries should cooperate to overcome the "tragedy of the commons", greenhouse gas emissions need to internalize the externality theory economics so that the public goods propertie of greenhouse gas emissions achieves the internalization which thereby reduces the over-use public goods properties of greenhouse gas emissions. Cooperation in Sino-U.S. climate change and energy is intertwined with the interests and disputes of game of both parties. On the basis of game theory models, the dissertation leads the game analysis of the funds and technical support and the carbon tariff which the Uinted Stated will impose which involved in the Sino-US energy cooperation and climate change. The conclusion of game analysis is that the United States should be support technical and financial to the development countries such as China so that these countries will participate to reduce the global greenhouse gas emissions. Sino-US game about the United States plans to impose carbon tariffs depends on the effect of carbon tariffs on the development China’s economy and the bargaining ability of both sides. As Countries at different stages of economic development result in vary of carbon emissions considerably, Kuznets curve of carbon emissions well explains the relation between economic development stage and carbon emissions of the United States and China. Because China and the United States were at different stages of EKC carbon emissions, commitments carbon emission reduction of both sides should be different. Being crossed the per-capita carbon emissions of EKC, the United States should reduce total and per capita carbon emissions. Only being crossed carbon emissions intensity stage, China can not afford to reduce the amount of carbon emissions, but may reduce the relative amount namely per GDP carbon emissions. The cooperation of climate change and energy between China and the United States should adhere to principles of sustainable development, of "common but differentiated responsibilities" and of equitable sharing of carbon emissions.The Chapter 3 discusses the situation of Sino-US cooperation on climate and energy. The climate change has caused serious adverse effects in the world and in the United States and in China. Facing these adverse effects, both countries of China and the United States need to develop low carbon economy in order to overcome the challenges of climate change and energy security. Both countries have developed plans and regulations, etc. of low-carbon economy which provide the foundation for the Sino-U.S. climate change and energy cooperation. Therefore, China and the United States developed a series of bilateral and multilateral cooperation in the fields of climate change and energy. Especially in 2009, intensive diplomatic climate and energy has been conducted between the two countries which laid the foundation for deepening cooperation of climate change and energy.The Chapter 4 analyzes the differences and conflicts on climate change and energy cooperation in Sino-U.S. especially on climate change. China and the United State have the distrust of each other in the long time. The two countries mainly have many differences and conflicts on absolution or relative amount of reducing carbon emissions of China’s, on the technology and financial support and which link to the measurable, reportable and verifiable, on the" common but differentiated responsibilities " priciples and on the United States intending to impose carbon tariffs, etc.The Chapter 5 further empirical analyzes the CO2 embodiment in exports of China to the United States and other countries based on the differences. With climate change being a global important issue, embodied carbon emissions is more and more paying close attention in academia in recent years. In this dissertation, we focus on using input-output and empirical analyze the embodied carbon in export of China to America.The conclusion is that China, as one of "world factory", with the rapid development of foreign trade in recent years, has a large number of export products, as well as exporting a lot of embodied carbon emissions which led in surplus of the merchandise trade, but deficit in embodied carbon emissions. These embodied carbon consumed a lot of energy and emitted large amount of CO2 of China which are all attached to the export pruducts and corresponding services, but eventually sold to the Uinted States and other foreign countries. The consumers in America and in other developed countries use a lot of energy and carbon emissions which are currently counted into the statistics of China. Therefore, in the open economy, the statistical system of embodied carbon based on producting should be adjusted in new period.The Chapter 6 analyses the reasons of carbon emissions rising rapid on China’s participation the Sino-US cooperation on climate change and energy then puts forward measures to be taken by China. In the end, in era of low carbon economy, the Sino-U.S. cooperation in climate change and energy is the trend so that the climate change and energy cooperation between China and the United States should be further strengthened.The dissertation has a systematic analysis on current hot issues of the climate change and energy cooperation and the differences between China and the United States in era of low carbon economy. We can see that low carbon economy can achieve a dual purpose on climate change and energy security. China and the U.S., as large countries of fossil energy consumers and producers, have a huge responsibility to deal with climate change and energy cooperation in order to reduce global warming. The cooperation of the two countries in climate and energy is not only necessary but can achieve mutually beneficial complement to each other. Of course, we should also see that development of low-carbon economy involves in national interests within the various adjustments between the two countries, which determines the two countries in process of cooperation of climate and energy will inevitably full of contradictions, differences and conflicts. When the two countries have disagreements and conflicts, they need to strengthen communication and understanding with each other to take care of each other’s core interests and seek common ground to protect the overall situation from Sino-US economic and trade relations in accordance with the "common but differentiated principle" of "United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change" to reduce differences and contradictions. The two countries should not easily engage in trade retaliation and resort trade protectionism. With the development of economic globalization, economic and trade relations in Sino-US have developed into the world’s most important and most complex bilateral relations which the two countries benefits both win, fighting both sides will suffer.更多还原