【作者】 李阳；

【导师】 叶永刚；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 金融学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 中国在分税制改革后,形成财权的向上集中和事权的向下分派趋势,地方政府出现财权和事权的严重不匹配。随着城市化进程的加速,地方政府为了弥补建设资金来源不足,纷纷集中地方国有资源建设政府融资平台公司,有效规避中央关于地方政府不能负债的政策瓶颈,弥补地方财政建设资金不足甚至变相弥补经常性建设资金不足。在国家开发银行等政策性银行“软贷款”的推动下,政策性银行贷款已发展成为第二财政,只要有项目、债务能滚动,“开发性金融”就能充分发挥作用。特别是在2009年初,国家为了应对国际金融危机,鼓励地方政府成立融资平台公司,通过债务融资加大投资,同时为了强化这一信号,中央政府代地方政府正式发债。中央4万亿项目建设计划推出后,在不到一年的时间里,地方政府负债规模已经达到7万亿元。地方公共债务规模的急剧膨胀已经危及到整个社会信用体系的安全和国民经济的健康稳健运行,地方公共债务问题风险管理已经成为摆在政府决策者面前的首要问题。目前,关于公共债务理论、国内外公共债务风险管理模式和国内地方政府的风险管理实践已经较多但是缺乏全面、系统、规范的研究。本文将以武汉市经济技术开发区政府公共债风险管理实践为基础,定性分析和定量分析相结合,历史分析和未来发展趋势分析相结合,构建地方公共债务风险管理的基本分析框架。本文正文内容共分十一章,结构安排如下：引言。本章立足于公共经济学理论,提出地方政府进行公共建设投融资的必要性,对开发区公共建设投融资历史、现实和前景进行分析,提出开发区公共建设投融资的供求矛盾。同时,提出本文研究重点,即在现有经济基础上,如何科学统筹,合理安排未来公共建设融资计划,以此分析通过宏观金融工程技术搞好开发区风险管理的理论和现实意义。第一章文献综述。本文对涉及公共融资可持续发展的公共经济理论、宏观金融工程理论、金融风险理论、资本结构理论,资产价格理论和公共债务理论的代表性文献进行综述,为开发区公共融资可持续发展研究提供理论基础。第二章对开发区建设成果和未来资金预测进行分析。本章通过建设成果说明历史性公共债务对开发区的发展发挥了不可替代的作用,未来开发区进行新版图开发急需巨额资金,资金供给的时间均衡缺口问题仍然需要债务融资来解决。同时对未来项目建设资金供求进行了简要分析。第三章对地方公共债务风险管理的基本框架进行分析。主要对以基础设施建设项目和项目建设资金造价为基础的地方公共建设资金需求进行研究。对地方以财政总收入、财政体制和转移支付制度为基础的公共建设资金供给进行探讨。对地方以实际增长财力为基础的公共债务适度规模进行研究。对公共债务风险管理体系构造进行探讨。包括公共债务的风险识别、风险评估和风险控制,地方支柱税源的培育,地方公共债务风险管理体系的构建等提出建设性方案。第四章将经济增长与公共财政收入关系进行研究,探讨其对公共债务风险管理的正相关影响。财政收入与经济增长密切相关,财政需要通过经济增长来取得收入,经济发展水平高,国民生产总值就多,财政收入就多；而财政收入对于保证经济增长,政府职能实现以及经济社会的稳定协调发展,都具有重大作用。本章在对开发区经济增长规模、税源结构优化、财政管理体制进行综合分析,并探讨开发区地方公共债务风险管理的核心因素——地方财政收入持续稳健的增长。第五章对开发区财政收入增长的实证分析。在一定时期内,财政收入规模通常受地区经济发展水平、社会投资水平、进出口水平等方面的影响。本文选用地区生产总值、工业总产值、农业总产值度量沌口开发区经济发展水平,以固定资产投资总额反映开发区社会投资水平,以及以进出口总额反映开发区进出口水平。研究发现固定资产投资和工业总产值与财政收入正相关关系明显,尤其是工业总产值特别显著,这与开发区现代制造业基地的实际现状是吻合的。第六章对开发区公共债务存量风险进行分析。对开发区现有公共债务还本付息风险主要从两个方面进行评价：一是现有建设性熟地存量的变现还款能力,二是未来每年到期时财政自筹资金的还款能力。通过研究发现,现有公共债务存量土地价值一次性变现后的还款能力完全可以覆盖现有贷款规模。同时,财政自筹归还未来每年到期债务本息的能力也很强,开发区存量债务不存在风险。第七章对开发区财政总收入约束条件下的地方公共债务适度规模进行研究。该实证研究建立在对开发区历史数据分析和未来数据预测的基础上,通过均衡融资模型估算一段时期内区政府债务的适度规模。但是以开发区财政总收入为约束条件计算公共债务适度规模存在明显的缺陷。开发区财政既是建设性财政,又是贡献性财政,财政总收入的75%都贡献给了中央。但是此种研究可以发现,财政体制对开发区地方财政收入的分割是当大的,如果不受财政体制的局限,开发区公共建设债务适度规模可能最终只是一个理论值,开发区建设根本就不需要举债,更谈不上公共债务的风险管理问题。第八章对以开发区地方财政收入为约束条件的地方公共债务适度规模进行研究。在地方财政收入仅占总财政收入25%的约束条件下,用于100%财政总收入的公共基础设施,导致开发区地方政府只有通过融资平台公司举债,弥补建设资金不足。以未来期权收益为赌注的地方公共债务举债行为,如何满足未来建设开发资金需求,实现公共建设资金供求平衡。如何按照最优资本结构的条件,合理安排债务额度和期限,实现次优结构下的公共债务资金平衡、风险可控。本章着力对以上问题进行了探讨。第九章对开发区公共债务风险管理进行研究。包括开发区公共债务风险识别、风险评估和风险控制技术。指出公共债务的风险识别、风险评估和风险控制是一个循环往复的过程。在一个设定的基本框架下,应该适时给予动态调整。按照科学、协调发展的原则,优化产业结构,转变经济增长方式,惯性发展第二产业,创新发展第三产业,培育开发区地方支柱税源,增强地方财政实力,公平、持续、协调、系统地建立税源管理体系。当政府债务达到一定规模时,需建立系统的债务规模控制体系以防过度负债而引发财政风险乃至更大范围的公共风险。第十章结论和建议。加强公共债务风险管理,促进开发区公共建设融资可持续性发展,既要坚持负债投资拉动经济增长,促进开发区融资可持续发展,又要坚持负债规模适度,确保地方经济又好又快的发展。同时,本文以开发区2009年和2010年系列保经济增长的措施为例证：开发区公共债务风险管理实质是统筹协调经济和社会各方面的利益关系,整合成促进开发区经济发展的合力,实现开发区经济发展效应最大化、单位土地面积投资密度最大化、GDP贡献最大化、税收最大化、公共债务风险最小化的过程。更多还原

【Abstract】 The financial power is upward concentration and responsibilities are downward after the tax distribution reforming, resulting in local financial authority and responsibilities mismatched seriously. In the great wave of urbanization, the local governments have to establish state-owned companies as government financing platform with pooling of resources, so as to fill the construction funds gap, which can avoid policy constraints that local governments are not allowed to borrow money effectively. With the supplying of "soft loans" by policy banks, such as the State Development Bank, policy banks have provided effective ways to financing for local government. As long as there are projects, debt can be rolling, "Development Finance" will become more and more popular. Especially in the beginning of 2009, the state is encouraging local governments to establish financing platform and expand investment funding through debt financing, as a response to the international financial crisis. In order to play a more effective role, the central government is to issue bonds on behalf of the local government. After proposing 4 trillion construction scheme by central government, the debt scale of local government is increasing to 7 trillion in less than one year’s time. However, the debt scale is expanding so rapidly that may pose a threat to social credit system and even the national economy. Thus, this problem has become one of the most important issues to preventing the local public debt risk for policy-makers.At present, there are lots of practices and theoretical literatures about public debt risk around the world, but lack of comprehensive, systematic, standardized research. This paper is basing on the practices for a local government risk management, combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, integrating historical analysis and future development trend analysis, to establish a basic framework for local public debt risk management.With an outline of this article, which contain 11 chapters, as follows.At the beginning, give an introduction. This chapter is basing on public economic theory; put forward the necessity of financing for public construction investment for local government. Secondly, analyzing the history, reality and prospects of public construction for development zone, and finding the contradiction between supply and demand for investment and financing. Thus, it put forward the plan for future financing of public construction reasonably and scientifically. At the same time, emphasizing the importance of risk management using macro-financial engineering technology in development zone.Chapter 1 is literature review. This article makes a summarize of the relevant theory, that is relating to public economic theory, macro-financial engineering theory, financial risk theory, capital structure theory, asset pricing theory and public debt theory and so on, so that to provide foundation supports for the research of public financing of sustainable development in Wuhan Economic and Technological Development Zone.Chapter 2 analyzes construction results and the forecast of future cash flow. It shows that public debt has played an irreplaceable role, the construction need more funding that ask for more debt, so as to balance the debt financing gap. Moreover, it makes a brief analysis supply and demand for future projects construction funds.Chapter 3 analyzes the basic framework for local public debt risk management; it involved the research of the infrastructure projects construction and its corresponding local public funding needs. We discussed the supply of public construction funding based on local revenue, the fiscal system and transfer payment system. Moreover, calculating the appropriate scale of public debt based on actual growth of local financial resources. For the system of local public debt risk management, it contains risk identification, risk assessment and risk control, promote the development of the local pillar sources, then put forward a constructive programs for debt risk management.Chapter 4 studies on the relationship between economic growth and public revenue. Public revenue is closely related to economic growth, finance need to obtain income through economic growth. The higher levels of economic development, the more gross national product, and more revenue; and financial revenue play a great role to promote economic growth and government functions and social stability. This chapter makes a comprehensive analysis of economic growth, optimization of tax revenue sources and the financial management system, so as to explore key factors of public debt risk management factors, and achieve sustained steady growth for local revenue.Chapter 5 is empirical studying on public revenue growth. In the period of time, the scale of revenue is usually affected by several factors, such as the level of economic development, social investment, the level of foreign trade. In this paper, the level of economic is measured by regional GDP, industrial output, agricultural output,. the level of social investment zones is reflected by the total investment in fixed assets, the level of development zones is measured by total volume of foreign trade. Study found that fixed-asset investment and industrial output is closely related to the public revenue, and the industrial output is more significant, which is consistent with the reality in Wuhan economic and technological development Zone.Chapter 6 analyzes the stock risk of public debt. There are two aspects for the risk of existing public debt. First, repayment ability is supported by the existing stock land; second, it is due to financial self-financing. The research shows that the existing stock of public debt is out of risk, the value of land can overwrite the existing scale of loans. Meanwhile, the financial self-return debt principal and interest due each year in future ability to strong, the stock of debt is not risk zone.Chapter 7 studies on the proper scale of local public debt with constraint of total fiscal revenue. The empirical study is based on the analysis of historical data and the future forecasted data, and estimates the most proper size of development zone’s debt. However, there are some shortages, which the finance of development zone play roles of constructive one as well as financial one,75 percent of revenue contribution pays to the central government. But such research can be found, if not subject to the limitations of the financial system, the proper debt scale of public construction may eventually only a theoretical value.Chapter 8 studies on the proper scale of local public debt with constraint of fiscal revenue of development zone. With the constraints of local revenues account for only 25percent of total fiscal revenue, used for 100% of total fiscal revenue of the public infrastructure, lead to establish the platform through finance companies and borrow money to make up for lack of construction funds. With the behavior of betting on future local option income for public debt, how to meet future funding needs, to achieve balance between supply and demand of public construction funds. How the optimize capital structure in accordance with the conditions, reasonable arrangements for the debt amount and duration to achieve sub-optimal structure of public debt, balanced funds, risk control. This chapter focuses on these issues.Chapter 9 is researching on the management of public debt risk. It concludes public risk identification, risk assessment and risk control techniques, which is a cyclic process. In a set of basic framework, it should be timely given dynamic adjustment, In accordance with the principle of scientific coordinated development, we could be optimizing industrial structure, transforming economic growth mode, developing the secondary industry inertial, using new ideas for developing the tertiary industry, and fostering local sources of revenue, to enhance the local financial strength, and build a fairness, sustained an coordinated system of revenue resources management. Once the government debt attaining a larger-scale, we need to establish the scale controlling system to prevent financial risk and wider range of public risk lead by excessive liabilities.Chapter 10 is the conclusions and recommendations. Strengthening public debt risk management, and promoting sustainable development for public construction financing, it is necessary to adhere to debt investment, so that to promote economic growth and the sustainable financing development, and insist on an appropriate scale debt to ensure sound and fast development of local economy. Meanwhile, this paper takes a example of Wuhan economic and technological development zone that has used series of security measures for promoting the economic growth in 2009 and 2010, such as coordinated the relationship between economic and social interests of various aspects, which play a important role in the public debt risk management system, and form join forces to promote economic development. It is achieving maximum effect of economic development, realizing optimization of the investment density, GDP contribution, revenue maximization, and the minimization of public debt risk during the process.更多还原