【作者】 王艺；

【导师】 郭熙保；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 西方经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 房子是人类生存和发展最基本的生活资料,也是衡量一国经济发展和人民生活水平的重要标志之一。在我国的文化传统中,“安居方能乐业”的思想根深蒂固,“居者有其屋”更是成为文人墨客追求的理想境界。因此,有关房子的问题就显得至关重要,成为从中央到地方各级政府关注的主要问题之一。我国房地产行业自市场化改革之后,经过三十多年的发展,房地产行业的产业规模不断扩大,不仅带动了国民经济的增长,同时对改善城镇居民居住环境、促进城市化进程做出了积极的贡献。但是,由于我国房地产行业发展时间较短,发展经验不足,在为国民经济发展做出巨大贡献的同时,房地产市场所表现出来的价格上涨过快等问题,已经成为困扰社会各界的一大难题。尽管政府对房地产市场实施了严厉的调控措施,但收效甚微。本文正是在这样的背景之下,从供给和需求两个方面,对影响房地产价格的各个因素进行深入剖析。供给是房地产市场非常重要的影响因素之一,它直接决定了房地产市场上的商品的供给数量和供应结构,进而影响到房地产的价格。一般来看,影响房地产市场供给的因素主要有土地、建安成本、其他开发成本、二手房市场、租赁市场等。在这些因素中,土地价格的提高、拿地难度的增加、政府管制、建安成本和其他开发成本的上涨,都直接造成了成本和房价的上涨；作为增量房市场重要补充的二手房市场和租赁市场,因为种种原因发展不完善,也未能有效的缓解住房市场的压力,对房价上涨的约束作用不明显。从需求因素来看,不断提高的收入、膨胀的人口、城镇化进程的加快,都进一步刺激了住房市场的需求。而我国特殊的消费心理和消费方式加剧了房地产市场的供需矛盾,成为助推房价上涨非常重要的因素。再加上媒体对房地产市场的报道有失公正和客观,造成了整个社会对房地产行业的过度打压。因此,中国房地产市场的总体情况就是,市场上的供给存在问题,而不健康不理性的需求进一步加剧了供需之间的矛盾,媒体的参与更加大了市场博弈的剧烈程度,房地产价格就在这多重推动力下不断上涨。由此可见,中国的房地产市场是一个非常复杂的市场。它的运行不仅受到了来自市场内部因素的影响,还受到来自市场外部的制约。正是在这多种力量的共同推动力下,才造成房地产市场今日的困局。房地产市场呈现出的复杂性,要求政府必须立足于国情,树立正确的指导思想,建立起一整套针对房地产市场的系统化、规范化、科学化的政策和法律体系,运用市场化的调节手段引导房地产市场健康发展；对消费者来说,健康理性的消费观念尤为重要；而媒体更应该站在公正客观的基础上,促进市场规范的建立。本文最大的创新点在于对供给因素的全面揭示,综合分析了土地供给、住房一级市场、二级市场、租赁市场、空置率、保障房、自建房和合作建房对房地产市场的影响,深刻剖析了房地产价格上涨的动因。房地产市场化改革之后,社会各界对房地产价格上涨的原因进行了分析,但由于理论研究和现实的脱节,学术界对房地产价格的构成并未窥觊全貌,因此所提出的政策建议也未有实际效果。而本文通过对供给因素的全面揭示,深入剖析房地产价格上涨的内在动因,并依次提出政府宏观调控政策。其次,本文的第二个创新点在于,对政府调控房地产市场的指导思想、调控措施进行了深刻的反思。指出今日房地产市场局面的形成,并不是由开发商单方面造成的。在市场一轮轮的博弈过程中,政府、消费者、媒体对今日局面的形成都附有不可推卸的责任。因此,政府需要进行全面的深刻的反思,积极推进市场秩序的建立。第三,本文在基于基本事实、基本数据、基本国情的基础上,对房地产市场目前的形势、今后的走势进行了分析,并提出了自己的看法：在今后相当长的一段时间内,房地产市场依然没有健康平稳发展的趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 House is the most basic means of subsistence for human survival and development. It’s also an important sign to measure one country’s economic development and people’s living standard. In China’s cultural tradition, "place to live before being happy" and "home ownership" are two very important ideas. So, House is a critical issue and has become the focus of the government’s concern.China’s real estate market-oriented reforms began in the seventies and eighties, the twentieth century. After 30 years of development, the China’s real estate industry have been expanding a lot, Its not only led to economic growth, but also improved living environment and promote the process of urbanization. Because of the relatively short development time, and lack of experience, there are many problems on China’s real estate industry. Although the government has introduced a number of stringent policy, but it does not work. It is in this context, this article analyse the factors affecting the real estate prices, from the two aspects of supply and demand.Supply is one of the significant factors on the real estate market, it directly determines the supply quantities and structure in the real estate market, and then affecting the real estate prices. The factors affecting the real estate supply, including land supply、construction and installation costs、second-hand housing market、housing rental market, etc. Among these factors, the increase of land prices, the difficulty of accessing to land, government regulation, the rise of construction and installation costs, are all the direct results of the rise in housing prices; second-hand housing market and rental market, as an important complement to incremental housing market, do not effectively alleviate the pressure on the housing market. From the demand factor, rising incomes, expansion of the population, and accelerated urbanization process, have further stimulated the housing market’s demand. However, our special consumer psychology have exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand, it has became a very important factor that promoting the housing prices.So, the real situation of China’s real estate market is, the housing supply is inadequate, but the demand factors further exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand. In this double pressure, real estate prices remain rapidly rising. Thus, the real estate market is a very complex market. Its operation is not only affected by the market internal factors, but also constrained by many external factors from the outside of the market. It is precisely because of such many factors, the real estate market has become sufficiently complex. This complexity asking the Government must be based on national conditions, and use the market-oriented means of regulation to guide the healthy development of the real estate market. First of all, Government should establish a correct guiding ideology, and carry out a profound reflection on the real estate market. Then the Government should establish a set of scientific, systematic and standardized policies to guide the healthy development of the market.The biggest innovation of this paper is, conducted a comprehensive analysis of the supply. Prior to this, theoretical analysis of this issue was not completed,and led to the policy has no effect. The second innovation is, this paper carried out a profound reflection on the government’s guiding ideology, regulation and control measures. Today’s situation in the real estate market was not unilaterally caused by real estate developers, government、consumers and the media should take part responsible for it. The last one is, this paper display author’s own opinion on the future trend of the real estate market, based on the facts、data、and basic national conditions in China. For a long period of time, there are no factors to drive down real estate prices.更多还原