【作者】 王桂贤；

【导师】 赫国胜；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 金融学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 自1949年1月18日人民币对美元汇率在天津口岸生成后,人民币汇率在我国经济发展中的价格杠杆作用和政策调控杠杆作用日益增强。人民币汇率制度效率状况对我国经济运行产生了重要影响。本文围绕着人民币汇率制度效率的特征史实分析及量化实证分析逐步展开,以人民币汇率制度效率为核心,分七章进行论证。第一章导论,介绍本文的选题背景、国内外对该问题的相关文献综述、本文的主要内容及章节构成、论文的创新及不足。通过该章的写作,将使读者对本文的研究思路形成一个总体上的认识与把握。第二章,从界定与本文研究内容密切相关的制度、汇率制度概念入手,给出人民币汇率制度的定义,介绍汇率制度分类方法并对本文采用的汇率制度分类方法做出选择。对新古典经济学、制度经济学关于效率的不同看法以及汇率制度效率的现有研究成果进行评介,进而界定人民币汇率制度效率。第三章,借鉴新古典经济学、制度经济学关于效率的不同看法以及汇率制度效率的现有研究成果,给出人民币汇率制度效率的概念和衡量人民币汇率制度效率的评价标准,即有效率的人民币汇率制度必须具备灵活合理的汇率形成机制以反映价格信息,具备对经济金融发展的稳定化作用机制,同时,有效率的人民币汇率制度尚须体现汇率具备的政策杠杆特性,即有效率的汇率制度还须具备激励兼容、帕累托有效等特征。在给出有效汇率制度的衡量标准之后,从人民币汇率制度的历史变迁角度抽象出人民币汇率制度演变的特点继而确定本文的研究对象、研究时期,并对以人民币汇率形成机制为标准的汇率制度效率状况进行评价。通过对1994年以及2005年人民币汇率制度的两次重大改革剖析,指出人民币汇率形成机制虽然走上了以市场供求为基础的汇率决定之路,但一些严格限制,如汇率波动较窄波幅限制等制约了市场力量的发挥,从而也影响了人民币汇率形成机制的真正市场化,人民币汇率制度的弹性尚需进一步加大。第四章至第六章,按照第三章提出的有效率汇率制度的标准分析人民币汇率制度的效率状况。第四章,分析有效率人民币汇率制度的激励兼容效率要求,即分析人民币汇率制度的政策效率。作为调控经济运行的重要经济制度之一,人民币汇率制度必然要与财政政策、货币政策等政策变量产生相互关联,本章从我国实际出发,分析人民币汇率制度与这些政策之间的激励相容状况,人民币汇率制度在实现物价稳定、经济增长等宏观政策目标时,对财政政策、货币政策均构成了不同程度的制约,财政政策在宏观经济调节中被指派于外部均衡,货币政策在固定汇率制下其独立性受到挑战、货币供给的内生性明显增强、货币政策操作陷于困境。第五章,分析有效率人民币汇率制度的帕累托有效要求,即资源配置效率。人民币汇率制度在调控经济运行时,最直接的作用目标就是通过发挥汇率的资源配置信号功能,实现对经济结构的调整。汇率作用于资源配置的效率主要体现在国际经济交易中的实体性资源配置和基础性金融资源的配置上,本章选择商品进出口、外商直接投资等在我国国际收支平衡表中占主导地位的项目做为实体性资源的代表,将外汇储备做为基础性金融资源的代表展开人民币汇率制度资源配置效率的分析。以商品进出口、外商直接投资和外汇储备为例的分析显示,人民币汇率制度在配置上述资源时,虽然实现了“量”的扩张和积累,但“质量”不高是不容忽视的现实。第六章,分析人民币汇率制度的稳定化作用机制,即人民币汇率制度的稳定化效率。通过对国内外研究成果的梳理,发现汇率制度稳定化作用的发挥受经济冲击及投机冲击的影响,因而本章首先评估了我国经济发展中面临的货币冲击、实际冲击和投机冲击,然后以人民币汇率制度实际运行说明其稳定化作用的积极发挥,同时指出人民币汇率制度存在投机冲击而致货币危机的隐忧。第七章,在第三章至第六章人民币汇率制度效率状况分析评价基础上,进一步探求人民币汇率制度效率不完全的原因及效率改进建议。作为一项重要的经济制度,人民币汇率制度的效率既受制于经济因素、政策因素及自身缺陷,又取决于它与其他相关经济制度(或政策)的适应状况。在分析当前人民币汇率制度效率不完全的各方面原因之后,对人民币汇率制度改革提出建议,重点包括完善人民币汇率形成机制、健全和完善外汇市场、加强宏观经济政策(如利率自由化政策、财政政策、产业政策等)的配合等。本文的创新主要体现在以下两个方面：1.研究方法的创新本文采用制度分析方法、实证分析方法、规范分析方法、结构分析方法等多种分析方法对人民币汇率制度效率进行多角度分析。本文以“制度效率”为主题,制度分析方法贯穿全文,通过对人民币汇率制度的效率分析,注意到：人民币汇率制度处于演变过程中,现存的人民币汇率制度不是完善的,其运行机制的不少方面具有暂时性；通过设定一系列的制度效率评价标准,对人民币汇率制度效率进行定性分析,回答了人民币汇率制度效率“应该是什么”的问题,并通过相应的提升人民币汇率制度效率对策的提出,解决了人民币汇率制度如何才能符合这些效率标准的问题；运用人民币汇率水平的历史数据,建立回归模型,检验人民币汇率制度的经济增长绩效、稳定物价机制以及资源配置效率,完成了以定量分析为主要特征的实证分析；在剖析人民币汇率制度的资源配置效率时,深入分析了人民币汇率制度对外向型经济资源配置的结构的影响,即体现为结构分析。同时,本文在论述过程中引用了许多数据资料,制作了许多图表,意在直观明了地反映问题,提供信息。从这些数据资料的分析中可以发现大量有价值的东西而不是凭主观臆断。另外,本文在分析问题时,尤其是在第三、四章的论述中,贯穿了成本-收益分析法这一制度经济学效率分析的主要方法,意在对人民币汇率制度实施的成本-收益进行对比,进一步指出人民币汇率制度的实施虽然在相关评价指标中取得了极大的成就(功),但也付出了较高的成本,人民币汇率制度仍须进一步完善。2.研究内容的创新本文对人民币汇率制度效率的研究实现了三方面的突破。其一,选择“效率”视角对人民币汇率制度的汇率形成机制效率、政策效率、资源配置效率、稳定化效率等进行研究,突破了既有研究侧重制度选择、制度缺陷及改革建议等其他视角；其二,建立了一系列评价人民币汇率制度效率的标准,既包括汇率形成机制、汇率制度稳定化作用机制等定性标准,又包括人民币汇率制度与宏观经济政策的激励兼容、资源配置状况等可检验的标准；其三,对人民币汇率制度效率分析较为全面,突破了既有研究要么注重人民币汇率制度效率的微观形成机理研究,要么注重人民币汇率制度的宏观效率研究的局限,整合了人民币汇率制度的宏、微观效率。由于本文写作过程中资料搜集较难,有许多尚须进一步深入研究及改进的地方,这也正是本文的缺陷所在：其一,在分析人民币汇率制度效率时,虽然成本-收益分析法贯穿文章始终,但未能对人民币汇率制度的实施成本和收益做出全面的评估和量化分解,难免给人一种缺乏对人民币汇率制度效率进行全面评价的感觉。其二,在对人民币事实钉住美元的汇率制度的政策效率、资源配置效率进行计量检验时,由于难以获得统一口径的足够样本,不得不将样本期推广至1980年-2007年,这很可能会影响到结论的准确性和说服力。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the creation of RMB exchange rate against US dollar on 18th, January 1949, the function of exchange rate in adjusting economy’s operation as price leverage and policy leverage has been raised step by step. Moreover, during the past decades, the efficiency status quo of China’s exchange rate regime has affected the operation of economy importantly.This thesis is intended to investigate the dynamic efficiency of China’s exchange rate regime with the emphasis on its historical characters and empirical analysis. This thesis is composed of seven chapters in core of analyzing efficiency of RMB’s exchange rate regime.The first chapter is an introduction to and outline of the study. This chapter introduces the background and status quo of the issue, gives a scratch of the whole thesis involving the innovation and shortage.The second chapter gives a series of definition such as institution, exchange rate regime and provides a background description of the evolution of efficiency standard in different opinions as well as China’s exchange rate regime. Then selects classification method for Chian’s exchange rate regime and put forward the efficiency definition of China’s regime.The third chapter gives the standard of efficiency appraising based on the theories of efficiency and efficiency theories of exchange rate regime in different opinions.The article selects exchange rate formation mechanism, macro-economic policy incentive compatibility, parato efficiency and stabilization function mechanism as the criterion to appraise the efficiency of China’s exchange rate regime from the appoint of historical characters. The efficient RMB’s exchange rate regime calls for flexible and reasonable exchange rate formation mechanism to reflect the information involved in price. It also calls for the exisistence of stabilization function mechanism and character of policy leverage. These standards are existed to be examined according to different aspects. They are contents of chapter three to chapter six. The third chapter is focused on formation mechanism of China’s exchange rate regime after stating its history and character. The important reform of China’s exchange rate regime in 1994 and 2005 are analyzed after the analytical object and research period have been defined. The market power is enhancing and is functioning in the decision of RMB’s exchange rate. However, some rigid restriction such as the fluctuation band restriction constraints the function of market and the marketization of exchange rate formation mechanism, the flexibility of exchange rate regime should be enhanced in the future though the decisive function of market has been raised step by step.The fourth chapter turns to policy efficiency of RMB’s exchange rate regime. As an important economic institution, RMB’s exchange rate regime relates to financial policy and monetary policy obviously. Through analyzing performance of its policy targets according to our country’s facts, a conclusion is drawn that RMB’s exchange rate regime performed well in pursuing its targets such as price stability, economic growth et al. but act as restraint to financial and monetary policy in varying degrees. Financial policy is used to mandate external balance. Monetary policy’s independence is affected, the intrincic character of money supply is enhanced obviously and the operation of monetary policy enters into dilemma selection due to the adoption of actual fixed exchange rate regime.The fifth chapter is designed to investigate the resource allocation efficiency that is also called pareto efficiency. RMB’s exchange rate regime is pursuing its economic structure adjusting function through the signaling function in resource allocation. This function is mainly embodied in the commodity resource allocation and basic financial resource allocation. Commodity imports and exports, foreign direct investment, foreign exchange reserve which are main bodies of balance of payments are selected as the objects, various testing methods have been used to get an appraisal. The above mentioned resources all have been accumulated with lower quality during different stages of RMB’s exchange rate regime.The sixth chapter analyzes stabilization efficiency of China’s exchange rate regime. The existed literature has shown that the stabilization function of exchange rate regime has been bounded to economic shocks and speculative shocks. So this chapter appraises the shocks in our economy development then estimates the stabilization efficiency. The probability of currency crisis is also pointed out in light of Krugman’s crisis model.It is obvious that the efficiency of China’s exchange rate regime is not high based on the tests in the four chapters (Ⅲ-Ⅵ). So the seventh chapter is devoted to the causes and countermeasures analysis. The imperfect efficiency is owe to factors like path dependence, its intrinsic defect, policy constraint and so on. After analyzing the causes of low efficiency, countermeasures are put forward. To raise the efficiency, the intervention mechanism of central bank should be reformed, domestic interest rate control should be removed step by step, a Chinese-featured target zone should be set up to normalize exchange rate management for Chinese yuan. Moreover, the related policies such as foreign trade policy, industrial policy, especially the policy regarding the convertibility of Chinese yuan should be put high on the agenda.Through the above mentioned analysis, some new ideas and opinions are put forward. The followings are the innovations of the thesis.Firstly, multiple analysis methods are used to complete this paper. Institutional analysis, positive analysis, normative study, structural method are dispersed in different chapters. The efficiency idea is the center of the thesis, so institutional analysis method is dispersed in the whole article.By using institutional analysis, the thesis finds that the temporary character of RMB’s exchange rate regime is obvious. So a series of criterion are used to appraise the efficiency status of China’s exchange rate regime. The foundation of these apprasing criterion gives an answer to "what will be the reasonable RMB’s exchange rate regime" and countermeasures are analyzed to raise the efficiency. Qualititive analysis method is used here. Quantitive analysis is done by founding regression model to appraise the price stability function, resource allocation efficiency and approving economic growth function of China’s exchange rate regime. Structural analysis method is dispersed in resource allocation efficiency analysis of China’s exchange rate regime for the detail structure deposing.Many graphs and tablets are used in the analysis. So the conclusion is relatively reasonable and perfect. Much useful information is given. Furthermore, costs-gains analysis which is the classic analysis method in institutional analysis of efficiency is corvered in chapterⅢandⅣin order to compare the costs and gains of adopting fixed exchange rate regime. China’s exchange rate regime still needs to be reformed and made more perfectly because relatively high costs are exsisted during the course of pursusing its targets.Secondly, the contents are made newly from three aspects. Efficiency point of view is selected to analyze China’s exchange rate regime and this method has seldomly been done by others; A series of appraising criterion are put forward which includes both quantitive and qualitative criterion such as s exchange rate formation mechanism, macro-economic policy incentive compatibility, parato efficiency and stabilization function mechanism; The macro-efficiency and micro-efficiency of China’s exchange rate regime are analyzed in detail. So some defects such as focusing only on the micro-efficiency or macro-efficiency of RMB’s exchange rate regime are deleted through the relatively detailed analysis.However, other works such as comparison of costs and gains of adopting fixed exchange rate regime still should be done because the whole appraision of efficiency of China’s exchange rate regime can not be done by the thesis. And more, the correction of the conclusion might be affected covering the analsis of policy efficiency and resource allocation efficiency due to the shortage of data with the same sample period. So in the co-integration tests and regression analysis, the sample during period 1980 to 2007 is selected.更多还原