【作者】 姜伟；

【导师】 徐平；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 世界经济， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 主流新古典贸易理论认为贸易政策会提高经济效率和实现经济福利最大化,因此政府将实现效率和福利最大化作为贸易政策制定的目标。不管是亚当·斯密的绝对优势理论、大卫·李嘉图的比较优势理论、赫克歇尔—俄林的要素禀赋理论、还是最佳关税理论、保护幼稚产业理论、亦或是以不完全竞争和规模经济为基础的新贸易理论,其根本目标都是对经济效率的追求。其特征是个人主义的研究方法、运用最大化、均衡、稳定偏好等数学工具、成本—收益分析模型以及通过制度外生、“经济人”、完全信息等一系列严格假定把复杂的人类经济活动抽象和概括为现有资源约束下的求极值问题,从而实现效率最大化和福利最大化。完美的形式和严谨的结构为贸易理论奠定了方法论和理论工具的基础,成为能够在黑板上自由演绎的“黑板经济学”。众多主流经济学家在新古典框架内积极探索,收获颇丰,大大丰富了人们对贸易理论和实践的认识。但是,如果仅从经济的角度、从效率的角度对贸易政策进行考察是片面的。一个国家或政府制定贸易政策虽然主要表现为追求经济福利最大化,但它涉及社会经济生活的各个方面和领域。贸易政策是由哪些因素决定的,它又是如何形成的,选择什么样的目标模式等还取决于经济以外的其他因素。贸易政策具有利益再分配的性质,在制定和调整的过程中必然涉及人们之间的经济成本和经济收益如何分配的问题,必然会改变博弈各方利益分配的格局,从而表现出贸易政策本身的政治性质。贸易政策的制定是经济过程和政治过程的统一,因此从政治经济学的角度探讨贸易政策是科学、客观解释国际贸易现实的有效方法。二战后美国对日本贸易政策的演变轨迹经历了从自由贸易政策到战略性贸易政策再回归到自由贸易政策的政策调整。对于美国对日本贸易政策演变的原因,国内外学者更多的从纯经济的角度,或者是贸易摩擦的角度来研究美日之间所存在的问题,有关美国对日本的贸易政策的政治经济研究很少。关于美国对日本贸易政策的演变轨迹有几个关键的问题被忽略了：在美国对日本贸易政策的决策和制定过程中政府到底起了哪些作用?是独立存在的还是被利益集团最终“俘获”,成为利益集团目标实现的“传声筒”?国家的制度安排是如何为利益集团进入谈判程序提供通道,又是如何设计了相应的规则对保护主义加以限制?国际力量是如何以及怎样对美国国内政治经济产生重要作用的?因此关注并解释制定贸易政策背后的政治经济过程,才是正确理解和客观评价几十年来美国对日本贸易政策适时调整演化的关键。本文从贸易政策决策的政治经济过程出发,在评价制度变迁理论、公共选择理论和新政治经济学理论的基础上,提出国家——社会分析范式,并运用这一研究范式重新解读美国对日本贸易政策的演变轨迹。这一范式既是美国对日本贸易政策的理论基础,也是贯穿本论文始终的最主要的研究线索,它把美国国内的制度设计、制度结构、制度变迁、政府作用和国内政治力量的博弈结合起来,阐述美国对日本贸易政策的制定过程、政策制定过程中决策者的激励和约束机制是什么,以及政策冲突如何解决。这有利于更深入地探讨美国对日本的贸易政策的深层次的原因,为研究美国对日本贸易政策提供了新的视角。本文在上述理论思想的基础上,采用实证分析和规范分析相结合的方法、案例方法等来分析时间跨度长达几十年的不同时期美国对日本贸易政策的演变轨迹。本文通过对不同时期美国国内政治制度的改革、国会与总统之间、利益集团之间冲突与博弈力量的变化、政府所面临的制度约束及贸易政策经济政治绩效等问题的厘清,全面、深入、客观地理解美国对日本的贸易政策,以期对所研究的问题给出接近事实的合理解释。本文由六章内容组成。其中：第1章是绪论,包括问题提出、贸易政策的内涵以及相关内容、研究进展和文献综述、本文的研究方法和创新之处以及基本内容和结构安排。第2章是贸易政策政治经济学研究的理论问题。本章在评价新古典经济学在研究贸易政策的局限性的基础上,提出采用政治经济学来研究贸易政策的必要性,而且对与贸易政策关系密切的三大理论进行了归纳和评价：制度变迁理论、公共选择理论与政治经济学理论。并在评价美国贸易政策的三种研究范式的基础上,本文提出美国对日本贸易政策的国家——社会范式的研究视角。最后论述了美国贸易政策制定的政治经济学分析框架和制度设计。第3章论述战后美国对日本贸易政策的起点是对日本实行自由贸易政策。首先,分析1934年体制是美国自由贸易传统的制度基础；其次,分析美国对日本实行自由贸易政策的原因与约束条件；第三,分析美国政府对日本自由贸易政策的路径选择与政策设计；最后指出美国对日本实行自由贸易政策对美国和日本所产生的影响。第4章论述美国全球战略的调整导致对日本实行战略性贸易政策。首先,分析美国对日本贸易政策转变的原因；其次,分析美国贸易政策变革的内容、国内根源、集中表现以及冷战以后变革的强化；第三,在此基础上,提出美国对日本贸易政策的政策设计与经济绩效；第四,论述了日本针对美国的行动所作出的反应和对策；最后,以半导体摩擦为例,来印证第4章所提出的理论和结论。第5章论述美国改变全球战略,在“多轨”贸易体制框架下实行对日贸易政策。本章首先指出了新时期美日经贸关系发生了新变化,出现了新特征,给美国对日本贸易政策调整提出了新挑战；其次,提出这段时期美国实行了内部政治制度改革,国家经济委员会的建立在很大程度上改变了国内各方利益分配的格局；第三,分析了美国对日本贸易政策由“结果导向”回归到“规则导向”的原因；第四,在此基础上,论证了美国政府对日本贸易政策进行了重新定位与设计；最后,对新时期美国对日本贸易政策进行评价,预测了美日未来走势的政策选择,并得出美日同盟关系将进入新时期的结论。第6章是主要结论和启示。在以前所提出的理论框架及实证分析的基础上,得出了一些美国对日本贸易政策演变的主要结论,最后概括了对中国的启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 The mainstream neo-classical trade theory thinks that trade policies may improve economic efficiency and maximize economic welfare, therefore which is regarded by the government as the objectives of their trade policies, the classical trade theories such as the absolute advantage Theory by Adam Smith, the comparative advantage theory by David Ricardo, the Heckscher-Ohlin Factor Endowment Theory, the optimum tariffs theory, the theory of infant industry protection, or the new trade theory under the conditions of imperfect competition and economies of scale, the fundamental aim of all those is to pursuit the economic efficiency. Its main characteristics are the individualism research methodology, the application of maximization, equilibrium, stable preference and other mathematical tools, the model of cost-benefit analysis and through a series of stringent assumptions such as exogenous institution, "economic man", complete information and so on, the complex human economic activities are abstracted and generalized to an extremum problem under the constraints of existing resources. The aim is to maximize efficiency and welfare. Perfect form and rigorous structure underpin the methodology and theories for the international trade, and make the free interpretation on blackboard plausible, which is referred as the "Blackboard Economics". In the neo-classical framework, many economists have been actively exploring and fruitfully rewarded, greatly enriching people’s understanding on international trade theory and practice.However, it is rather incomplete if we discuss the trade policy only from the point of economic efficiency. Although one state or government formulates trade policy with an aim of maximizing economic welfare, it involves and influences all aspects of socio-economic life. The factors that determine the trade policy formulation how it is formed, and what kind of target selection mode it will take, etc., also depend on factors other than the economic ones.With the nature of benefit redistribution, the trade policy, involving the allocation of economic costs and benefits between people during its implement and adjustment, will inevitably change the pattern of gains between involving parties, indicating the political nature itself. So the implement of the trade policy is the unification of political and economic processes, and it is only from the perspective of political economy that we can explore and interpret the realities of international trade and policy scientifically and objectively.After World War II, the trade policy of the United States towards Japan has gone through an evolution from free trade policy to strategic trade policy, and back to free trade policy again. As to the evolution of U.S. trade policy, most scholars study the issues from a pure economic point of view or the perspective of trade frictions between the U.S. and Japan. In contrast, literatures from the view of political economy on the trade policy of the United States towards Japan are rather few. Some key issues about the evolution of U.S. trade policy towards Japan are overlooked: what role did the government play in the decision-making process of U.S. trade policy towards Japan? Did the government function independently or eventually was "captured" by interest groups, and be "Mouthpiece" of interest groups to achieve their objective? How the institutional arrangement of the state provided channels for interest groups to have access to the negotiation process, and how it designed the corresponding rules to restrict protectionism? How international forces play an important impact to the domestic politics and economy of U.S.? Therefore, to observe and explain political and economic process underlying the decision-making process of trade policy, is the key to the properly understanding and objectively evaluating timely adjustment of U.S. trade policy towards Japan of several decades.Based on the remarks on the institutional change theory, public choice theory and political economic theory, this paper starts from the political economic analysis of the decision-making process of the trade policy, then proposes the state-social paradigm of U.S. trade policies towards Japan, and applying this paradigm, re-interprets the evolutionary path of U.S. trade policy towards Japan. This paradigm is the theoretical basis of U.S. trade policies towards Japan, as well as the most important research methods. Combining U.S. domestic institutional design, institutional structure, structure changes, and the role of government with domestic political forces, this paradigm explains the decision-making process, incentives and restraints mechanisms of policy decision-makers and how to resolve the policy conflicts. It helps further study the deep-seated reasons for U.S. trade policy towards Japan in a new perspective.This paper combines the positive analysis with normative analysis, also with case study to analyze the evolution of U.S. trade policy towards Japan in the different periods with time spans over decades. This paper tries to clarify some issues, for example, the political institutional reform of United States, the conflicts between Congress and President, different interest groups and the force changes between gaming parties, the institutional constraints that the government is facing, the political and economic performance of trade policy etc., to understand the U.S. trade policy towards Japan comprehensively, in-depth and justly, in an attempt to presenting a reasonable explanation close to the facts on this issues.This paper is organized as follows:Chapter 1 is the introduction, including proposing the main issues, content of trade policy and relevant issues, literature review, research methods and innovations as well as basic content and structure of the arrangement.Chapter 2 is the theoretical part. On the basis of reviewing the limitations of new classical economics in the study of trade policy, this chapter proposes the need for studying trade policy issues in the perspective of the theory of political economy, by summarizing and remarking on the three theories closely related to the trade policy: the institutional economics, the public choice theory and the political economic theory. After reviewing the three research paradigms on the U.S. trade policy, the paper proposes the state-social paradigm of U.S. trade policy towards Japan. At last, the analysis framework of political economy and institutional design of U.S. trade policy is discussed.Chapter 3 discusses that after World WarⅡ, the starting point of U.S. trade policy toward Japan is free trade policy. Firstly, the paper analyzes that the 1934 scheme of the United States is the traditional institution basis of U.S. free trade; secondly, this paper analyzes the reasons and constraints of U.S. trade policy towards Japan; thirdly, this paper discusses the path choice and policy design of U.S. trade policy towards Japan; and the last, it points out the impact of free trade policy on U.S. and Japan.Chapter 4 argues that the adjustment of U.S. global strategy resulted in the implementation of strategic trade policy of U.S. towards Japan. Firstly, this paper analyzes the reasons of transformation of the U.S. trade policy towards Japan; Secondly, it discusses the contents of U.S. institutional change, domestic source, performance of U.S. trade policy and strengthening of institutional change; thirdly, based on above, it proposes the policy design and economic performance of U.S. trade policy towards Japan; Fourthly, it explores Japan’s response and countermeasures against the actions of United States; Finally, taking the semiconductor industry friction as example, it verifies the theory presented in chapter 4 and conclusions.Chapter 5 discusses that U.S. changed its global strategy and implemented trade policy towards Japan under the framework of the "multi-track" trading system. This chapter first points out that, on the new era, US-Japan economic and trade relations have witnessed new changes in the emergence of new features, which poses new challenges to U.S. trade policy towards Japan. Secondly, the U.S. implemented political institutional reform during this period, the establishment of National Economic Committee significantly shifted the distribution pattern of domestic interests; Thirdly, it analyzes the reasons of the shift from "results-oriented" to "process-oriented" of the U.S. trade policy towards Japan. Fourthly, it discusses that the government of the United States re-oriented and designed trade policy towards Japan. Finally, this paper reviews the U.S. trade policy towards Japan in the new era, and predicts the future trend of U.S. and Japanese policy options, and concludes that US-Japan alliance will enter the new era.Chapter 6 is the main conclusions and forecast. Based on the previously proposed theoretical framework and empirical analysis, this paper draws the main conclusions about the evolution of U.S. trade policy towards Japan, and finally sums up the enlightenment to China.更多还原