【作者】 宋承国；

【导师】 陆建洪；

【作者基本信息】 苏州大学 ， 中国近现代史， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 近现代以来随着各国经济的不断发展和国际金融联系的不断加强,期货市场在促进本国经济发展以及在国际金融合作中扮演着越来越重要的角色。尤其是近些年来,以期货市场为主体的虚拟经济越来越影响到实体经济的发展,并关系到国家经济金融的安全。在中国经济快速发展、产业结构不断升级、金融服务领域越来越开放的背景下,如何促进中国期货市场健康快速地发展,提升其服务本国经济的市场功能,是经济建设中一项十分重要而又紧迫的课题。因此,全面系统地研究近代以来中国期货市场的发展历程,并将其与国际期货市场的历史发展相比较,发掘出期货市场发展的历史规律以及可供吸取的经验教训,对于当代以及未来中国期货市场的长期健康发展无疑具有重要的历史借鉴价值和现实促进意义。中国期货市场萌芽并初创于晚清时期,先后经历了民国时期的艰难发展、共和国成立后的长期断层、改革开放后的重建以及在当代的再发展等若干历史阶段。百余年来期货市场的发展历程与中国制度的变迁息息相关,它是制度变迁的缩影,是制度需求和制度供给不断冲撞与融合的反映。因此对中国期货市场的研究,本文首先立足于制度变迁的理论视角,并由此展开。将中国期货市场纳入制度经济学的研究范畴,以制度变迁的视角对其发展历程展开了研究,分析了中国期货市场历史发展的制度原因,总结了中国期货市场发展的历史规律和经验教训,并为今后中国期货市场的发展提供有价值的借鉴和参考。其次,在充分挖掘史料以及前人研究的基础上,本文运用实证的史学研究方法,对三个历史时期期货市场的历史与发展进行了系统、全面地纵向研究和梳理,揭示了中国期货市场产生的动因、发展变化情况、影响和意义,并对其发展规律、特征与不足进行了总结和评价,使得晚清、民国和共和国三个历史时期的期货市场成为了有机联系的整体。尤其是对共和国成立后期货市场的断层和重建时期进行了系统、深入地研究,揭示了当代中国期货市场重建和发展的历史必然性。再次,本文在对近代以来期货市场发展历程进行纵向梳理的同时,还借助经济学的研究方法对不同历史时期期货市场的运行机制、市场监管、市场的特点与不足等方面展开了横向地分析和研究。不仅研究了近代以来华商与洋商两个期货市场、物品期货与证券期货两类交易品种、期货与现货两种交易方式,还对不同制度条件下期货市场的发展历程、运行机制(包括市场组织结构、制度规则、交易和行市)、市场监管(包括国家立法、行政监管和行业自律)等进行了研究。在此基础上,本文还对中外期货市场的发展进行了比较研究,分析比较了中外期货市场的发展历程,研究了国际期货市场的现实运行,总结了期货市场健康发展需要具备的条件。通过研究本文得出如下结论：首先,期货市场的形成与发展不仅是中国人现代化努力的重要成果,而且是现代化进程中的一个重要标志,是现代化发展的高层次体现。然而作为重要的金融市场,期货市场服务现货市场的功能并没有充分发挥,这体现出了中国现代化进程的曲折性和艰巨性；其次,制度的变迁对期货市场的发展具有决定性作用。中国期货市场的断续兴衰与国家经济制度变迁休戚与共。良好的制度安排可以创造出更高的市场效率和资源利用率,更好地促进期货市场的发展,反之则会起到阻碍作用,造成期货市场发展的迟滞乃至断层；再次,期货市场的创新和监管也非常重要。作为金融市场的一部分,期货市场具有发现价格、规避风险和配置资源的功能,是服务现货市场乃至整个经济发展的重要工具。中国必须加快制度创新,尽早建立起包括金融期货和期权期货在内的完整的期货品种结构。这对于推动经济发展,提升经济发展层次具有非常重要的意义。同时,也要吸取历史的经验教训,加强市场监管的制度建设,控制市场风险,防范期货市场的价格操纵和过度投机导致的功能失效和对经济的破坏。制度创新是中国期货市场发展的必由之路。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since modern and contemporary time with the ever-increasing development of different countries’ economy and the constant strengthening of international financial link, futures market has shaped a more and more important part in promoting a country’s economic development and international financial cooperation. Particularly in recent years virtual economy, represented by futures market as main body, has been increasingly influencing the development of real economy and it relates much to a country’s economic and financial safety. Nowadays China’s economy grows very fast, industrial structure enhances continuously, financial service field becomes more and more open. Under such circumstances, it is of highly importance and urgency to promote a healthy and quick development of Chinese futures market to improve its market function of serving national economy. Therefore, if the modern Chinese futures market is studied fully and systematically, and if the historical development of national futures market and international futures market are compared with each other to dig out the historical rules and lessens to be learned in such a market, undoubtedly significant historical mirroring value and realistic promoting meaning can be achieved in order to guarantee the long and healthy development of Chinese futures market ever since.The germination of Chinese futures market starts at the late Qing Dynasty. It experiences the hardships of the Republic of China, long-time breaking after the foundation of the People’s Republic of China, rebuilding since reform and open-up to the outside world and the re-development at contemporary era. For more than a century the developmental process is closely associated with China’s system changes. In effect, it is the epitome of these changes and reflects the constant collision and merging of system demand and system supply. The theoretical point of view of the dissertation lies first and foremost in the system changes and develops thereafter. Chinese futures market is put in a category of systematic economics and its development is studied within such an angle. It analyzes the system foundation of historical development of Chinese futures market, concludes its historical rules and lessons and provides valuable reference to its development. Secondly, based on adequate delving of historical materials and former research and the empirical research method, it systematically and comprehensively studies and analyzes the history and development of futures market in three different historical periods, reveals its birth reason, developmental changes, effect and significance. By summarizing and commenting its developmental rules, characteristics and deficiencies, it makes the futures market in the Late Qing, Republic of China and People’s Republic of China become an organically related whole. Systematic and profound research has been made about the period in which the futures market was broken and rebuilt, thus revealing the historical inevitability of rebuilding and developing contemporary Chinese futures market. Thirdly, the dissertation not only vertically analyzes the historical development of modern futures market, but also horizontally studies its functioning mechanism, marketing supervision, market characteristics and deficiencies in different historical periods. Not only modern Chinese merchants’ futures market and foreign merchants’ futures market, goods futures and stock futures, futures and spot cargo are studied, but also the developmental process, processing mechanism (including market organizational structure, system regulations, trading and marketing) and market supervision (including state legislation, administrative supervision, trade self-regulation) of futures market in different systems are also included. In addition, a comparative study has been made between the development of Chinese futures market and foreign futures market. It analyzes their historical development, studies the real running of the international futures market and concludes the essential factors for the healthy development.Research conclusions are:first, the birth and development of the futures market is not only an important result of Chinese modernization efforts, but also an important sign of modernization, it represents a higher level of modernization. But as an important financial market, the function of futures market serving the spot cargo market fails to be effective suggests the winding and arduous path of Chinese modernization. Second, the system change has a decisive effect on the development of Chinese futures market. Its rise and fall connect closely with the economic system changes. Good system is able to create higher market efficiency, resource utilization ratio and better development of the futures market. On the contrary, bad system is a hindrance, causing lagging-behind or even breaking of the futures market. Third, innovation and supervision on the futures market are very important. As a part of financial market, futures market has its functions of price discovering, risk evading, and resource allocating. It is an important tool for serving the spot cargo and even the entire economic development. China ought to quicken the step of system innovation and build the entire futures products including financial futures and option futures as early as possible in order to promote economic development and enhance economic development level. At the same time, historical lessons should be drawn to strengthen the system construction of marketing supervision so that risks can be controlled to avoid price manipulation and excessive speculation which lead to functional failure and damage to economy. Only through system innovation can Chinese futures market move on the road of success.更多还原