【作者】 郑基超；

【导师】 杨俊龙；

【作者基本信息】 安徽大学 ， 政治经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 伴随着全球经济一体化,国际资本流动在深度和广度上不断推进,国际资本流动就像一把双刃剑,在为发展中国家追赶发达国家缩小国民收入差距提供机遇的同时,也给很多国家带来了危机。我国改革开放的肇始就是对国际资本流动开放,鼓励吸收外资,研究国际资本流动对我国经济增长收益的文献数不胜数,关注资本流动对我国金融稳定影响的文献与之相比少得多,研究也不深入,因此在国际资本流动对我国金融稳定的影响方面尚未形成理论体系。本文试图设定国际资本流动影响中国金融稳定的研究框架,并用这一研究框架分析研究实际问题,文章通过对国际资本流动历史渊源、规模和动因的回顾,结合金融稳定理论与国际资本流动冲击金融稳定的机制分析,对中国的资本流动如何影响金融稳定进行了理论和实证的探索,在此基础上结合其他国家的国际资本流动管制实践为在资本流动条件下维护中国金融稳定提供了有操作层面意义的制度和对策建议。文章的引言部分对论文的研究目的和意义、国内外研究现状、研究理论空白、研究设想和研究方法及创新之处等进行了说明,指明了文章的理论价值和研究方向。第一章对国际资本流动的概念进行了简单梳理,同时为了以史为鉴,回顾了国际资本流动的四次历史高潮,并对国际资本流动的动因和历史作用进行了归纳。国际资本流动有助于缓解发展中国家的外汇缺口和储蓄缺口,同时对资本输出国来说也有利于提高投资报酬。在理论上国际资本流动能促进国际间资本收益率趋于一致,现实中这种情况并未发生,文章分析了阻碍这一进程的现实制约因素。第二章分析了当代全球及中国资本流动的规模,按照国际资本流动可能的途径,分为直接投资、证券投资、通过经常账户进行的资本流动及外债等方式。总体上看,虽然中国吸收的国际资本绝对值较高且逐年增长,但占世界的相对份额却仍较低；从中国对外资本输出来看,中国对外投资主要由国家以外汇储备这样的低收益方式持有,企业层面对外输出资本规模和结构与中国经济规模和优势产业结构很不相称,本章还应用税务成本法分析了通过各种可能途径进出中国的套利资本进出中国的成本,指出了成本较低的资本流动方式,从而为制定针对性政策提供了线索。第三章建立了国际资本流动影响金融稳定的理论框架。首先对金融稳定的内涵进行了探讨；接着分别从实践和理论方面阐述了国际资本流动影响金融稳定的机制：以东南亚危机期间的泰国为例说明了国际资本流动如何影响金融稳定导致危机爆发,结合三代货币危机模型从理论上指出了国际资本流动引发货币危机、金融危机的机制；本章第四节应用经典宏观经济模型IS-LM-BP模型分析了开放经济条件下国际资本流动趋势反转对产出、利率及汇率等关键经济金融指标的影响,结合中国拥有大量海外资产的实际引入了海外投资收益这一变量对IS-LM-BP模型进行了扩展,发现在引入海外投资收益变量后境外利率变化对国内产出、汇率的影响程度较未引入前要小。第四章是实证部分,将国际资本流动对金融稳定的影响定量化,金融稳定是个抽象的概念,最终应体现在受国际资本流动影响的一些核心指标的稳定上,本章选取了金融稳定的一些核心指标如物价、银行体系稳定、汇率、房地产和股票市场价格,将国际资本流动对这些变量的冲击量化,尽可能地进行计量分析,以厘清影响,虽然目前对中国金融稳定影响较大的主要是国际资本流入,但随着“走出去”战略的实施,本章也探讨了资本流出对中国金融稳定可能产生的影响。第五章结合第四章资本流动影响金融稳定的定量分析,充分借鉴国外资本流动危机预警指标体系研究成果,对K-L-R信号法和F-R概率回归法进行了介绍,在此基础上结合国内研究成果建立了中国特色的国际资本流动危机预警体系,对资本流动可能带来的危机进行预测以提前防范,分为三个层次：经济基本面信号、直接作用信号和压力信号,监管机构可以根据发出信号的指标层次和数量决定采取相应的对策。第六章对国际资本流动管制理论与实践进行了研究,在预警指标体系发出信号后,应该采取什么样的对策?有哪些国际经验可以借鉴?本章首先分析了学术界关于国际资本流动管制的认识变迁,对国际资本流动采取管制措施取得了越来越多的经济学家的认同。本章结合巴西的资本流入税、智利的无息准备金制度研究了价格型国际资本流动管制措施的作用,结合东南亚危机期间的马来西亚研究了数量型国际资本流动管制措施的内容和效果,并对两种类型的管制措施进行了价值比较,认为在市场经济环境下价格型国际资本流动管制措施要优于数量型国际资本流动管制措施。第七章对国际资本流动条件下如何维护我国金融稳定提出了相应的制度和对策建议。既包括宏观上的制度构建：实施更加灵活的汇率安排,国家只保持最优外汇储备,高于最优水平的外汇稳步推行藏汇于民政策,并在改革国际货币体系的基础上循序渐进推动资本账户开放。也包括具体微观管制措施：在借鉴第六章国际经验的基础上,当国际资本流动危机预警指标体系发出危机信号时,文章提出相应的管制措施,至此文章完成了从理论到实践的飞跃。第八章对全文主要结论进行了总结。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the global economic integration, the international capital flows advances in the breadth and depth constantly. However, international capital flows is just like a double-edged sword for the developing countries. It provides opportunities for developing countries to catch up with developed countries and narrow the income gap, but it also bring crisis at the same time. The beginning of China’s reform and opening up is being open to international capital flows and encouraging foreign investment. There are numerous literatures concerning the benefits of international capital flows on China’s economic growth, but less attention to its impact on China’s financial stability. Therefore the influence of international capital flows on China’s financial stability has not yet formed theoretical systems.The article attempts to set up the analysis framework of international capital flows influencing China’s financial stability and use this framework to study practical problems. Through reviewing the historical origin, scale and motivation of international capital flows and combining the financial stability theory with the mechanism analysis of the international capital flows shocking the financial stability, the article carries out theoretical and empirical exploration on the way of international capital flows affecting China’s financial stability. At last the paper provides meaningful systems and countermeasures for maintaining China’s financial stability under the circumstances of capital flow by combining the capital flows regulation practice in other countries.The Introduction of the Article describes the research significance, present research situation, research theory blankness, research ideas, research methods and the innovations, and points out the theoretical value and research direction of the article.ChapterⅠbriefly combs the concept of international capital flows. Meanwhile, in order to reflect on the past, the chapter reviews four historical climaxes of international capital flows and sums up the motives and historical role of international capital flows. The international capital flows helps to alleviate foreign exchange gap and savings gap of developing countries, while capital-exporting countries also benefit from the improvement of the return on investment. Theoretically, international capital flows can promote the convergence of return on capital, which has not happened in reality. And the article analyzes the actual constraints.ChapterⅡanalyzes the scales of several types of capital flows in the world and China: direct investment, portfolio investment, current account and external debt, etc. On the whole, although the absolute value of the international capital absorbed by China is growing year after year, but the relative share in the world is still much lower. From the perspective of capital exports, China’s overseas investment is mainly held in the form of low-yielding foreign exchange reserves, the scale and structure of company-level foreign capital exports does not match the scale and competitive industry structure of China’s economy. The chapter also applies the tax cost method to analyze the cost of capital arbitrage and points out the capital flow pattern with much lower cost, so as to provide clues for drawing up targeted policies.ChapterⅢestablishes the theoretical framework of the international capital flows influencing financial stability. The chapter first discusses the definition of financial stability and then elaborates the practical and theoretical mechanism of international capital flows influencing the financial stability. The chapter takes Thailand during Southeast Asia Financial Crisis as an example to illustrate how the international capital flows influencing financial stability and leading to the crisis and combines with three generations of currency crisis models to point out the mechanism of capital flow causing the currency crisis and financial crisis from the theoretical point of view.SectionⅣof this chapter applies classical macroeconomic IS-LM-BP model to analyze the impact of international capital flows tendency reversion on the output, interest rates, exchange rates and other key economical and financial indexes, introduces the variable of overseas investment income to extend IS-LM-BP model by combining the reality that China owns a lot of overseas assets, and finds out that the influence of the overseas interest rate change on the output and exchange rate is smaller after the introduction of overseas investment income.Chapter IV is the empirical part which quantifies the influence of international capital flows on the financial stability. Financial stability is an abstract concept, which should be eventually embodied in some core indicators influenced by international capital flows. This chapter selects some core indicators of the financial stability, such as prices, banking system stability, exchange rate, real estate and stock market prices, then quantifies the shock of international capital flows on these variables and carries out quantitative analysis as far as possible, so as to clarify the impact. Though currently the main problem is caused by international capital inflows, with the implementation of "going out" strategy, capital outflow will also affect financial stability. This chapter also discusses the possible influence of capital outflow.Chapter V establishes the hierarchical early warning indicator system with Chinese characteristics by combining the quantitative analysis result of ChapterⅣ.The system also fully utilizes the research outputs of international capital flows crisis early warning indicator system such as K-L-R and F-R theory and domestic research outputs. The system can anticipate potential crisis triggered by capital flows, thus are helpful to prevent the crisis. The system is divided into three levels: economic fundamentals signal, direct effect signal and pressure signal. The regulatory agencies can determine corresponding policies according to the level and quantity of signals.ChapterⅥstudies the theory and practice of international capital flows regulation. What kind of measures should be taken after the early warning indicator system sends out the signal? What can we draw from international experience? The chapter first analyzes the change of the academic’s attitude on the international capital flows regulation and the regulation measures win the recognition of more and more economists. The chapter studies the role of price-based international capital flows regulation measures by combining Brazil’s capital flows tax and Chile’s Unremunerated Reserve Requirement, also studies the content and effect of quantity-oriented international capital flows regulation measures based on Malaysia’s experience during the Southeast Asia financial crisis, compares the value of the two types of regulation measures, and concludes that the price-based regulation measure is better than quantity-oriented regulation measure under the environment of market economy.Chapter VII puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on how to maintain China’s financial stability under the condition of international capital flows. It not only includes macroscopic system construction: implement more flexible exchange rate arrangements and the state only keeps the optimal foreign exchange reserves, lets private agency hold more foreign exchange and promotes capital account liberalization based on the reform of the international monetary system. Specific micro-regulation measures are also required: on the basis of drawing lessons from the international experience in Chapter VI, when early warning indicators system sends out signal, the article put some capital flows regulation measures. Thus the article completes the leap from theory to practice.Chapter VIII summarizes the main conclusions of the paper.更多还原