【作者】 莫淑红；

【导师】 沈冰；

【作者基本信息】 西安理工大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 西北地区城市面临的一个共性问题就是气候干旱,降水量少且时空分布不均,造成城市的资源性缺水,城市生态环境建设所需的大量环境用水又会在一段时间内加剧城市有限水资源的供需矛盾。在这种背景下,进行相应的水资源安全保障基础研究,对保障城市水安全,促进西北地区生态城市的可持续发展具有重要的理论和实际意义。论文结合当前宝鸡市生态城市发展面临的水资源安全问题展开多方面研究,主要研究内容和成果如下：(1)从生态城市的内涵出发,分析了生态城市用水系统的特点及生态城市建设的水资源制约因素；结合日益丰富的城市水安全的观点,探讨了城市水资源安全保障体系研究的方向。(2)对宝鸡市降雨系统的演变特征进行了分析研究,结果表明,年雨日数呈递减趋势,雨日数和降水量线性相关显著；用去趋势波动分析法获得降雨序列的长程相关性在不同研究尺度上表现有所不同,未来一段时期内年降雨量总趋势减少；经干旱变化特征分析表明降雨量变化具有多阶段性和突变性,90年代后旱情发生频率增加,2000年左右发生突变后,旱情有所缓解,但仍处于较少水平；基于干旱预测模型探讨了未来年份宝鸡市干旱发生情势。(3)基于高阶统计理论,在对宝鸡市河流径流序列进行非线性辨识基础上,深入分析研究了其趋势性,持续性、分形特征及混沌特性,结果表明：作为宝鸡市农业、工业及生活用水重要水源的渭河干流、支流千河及清姜河径流系统均具有分形结构和混沌特性,三条河流年径流量均呈现出显著的下降趋势,且都具有较强的持续性。(4)采用Copula函数构造河川径流的联合分布,具体分析了宝鸡市区段渭河干流及其最大一级支流千河的丰枯遭遇情况,结果表明：干支流同时出现丰、平、枯水年的概率分别为0.72,0.45和0.21；干流出现平水年,支流出现丰水年与枯水年的概率分别为0.5和0.248；支流出现枯水年,干流出现丰水年的概率为0.25。(5)分析研究了宝鸡市历史供用水结构变化特点及节水现状。结果表明,宝鸡市目前供水结构单一,主要依赖常规水源,而非常规水源的开发利用和节水具有一定潜力。(6)针对生态城市需水系统的复杂性,进行了城市需水量预测方法研究。将灰色理论与自忆性原理相结合,研究了城市用水系统的自忆性并进行了城市需水量预测；基于宝鸡市产业结构及其国内生产总值,建立了相应的可拓物元法需水量预测模型；将结构分析法和未确知数学方法相结合,构建了基于盲数理论的城市需水量不确定性预测模型。(7)探讨了生态城市河流生态需水量的研究意义及西北地区生态城市河流需水量的确定方法,计算表明,在充分考虑城市污水处理能力建设条件下,宝鸡市市区渭河干流的生态需水量为3.2079亿m3,才能保证城市河流的生命力。(8)分析了城市再生水和雨水资源化的意义及其特点；分析了宝鸡市区污水处理能力的建设对生态用水的保障能力；探讨了城市雨水资源化潜力分析方法并估算了宝鸡市区雨水资源化潜力；定量计算了宝鸡市区非常规水源潜在用户需水量。(9)探讨了宝鸡市生态城市可持续发展的水资源安全保障策略,明确了建设节水型城市已经刻不容缓,须将常规水源和非常规水源统筹规划,合理、高效使用,保障生态城市健康发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Northwest cities are facing a common problem of arid climate and rare rainfall with uneven spatial and temporal distribution, which lead to a shortage of water resources.The large number of water requirements for urban ecological environment construction could intensify the conflict between water supply and demand in urban area.In this study,it is of significance for the sustainable development of eco-city in northwest district to research foundmantal issues corresponding water security.The study starts from the water problems occuring in Baoji city and the expending aspects,the main contents and results are as follows:(1)Proceeded from the meaning of ecological city,the characteristics of the water using system and water restraints in eco-city are analyzed. Combining with increasingly abundant points of city water security,the aspects on the city water security system are discussed.(2)The characteristics of rainfall system in the Baoji city are studied, the results indicate that annual rain days has a descending tendency,the linear dependence of the rain days and the precipitation is significant. The detrend fluctuation analysis method is used to obtain that the Long-range dependence of the rainfall time series behaves differ on different study scales.The annual precipitation will be decreasing in near future, the precipitation has features of multi-stages and mutation, the drought frequence was increased after 1990, and relaxed after 2000,when a sudden change occurred,but still be in a low level.Based on the drought forcasting model,the drought events in the future are approached.(3)Based on higher-order statistical theory,the non-linear feature of the river runoff series in Baoji city are identified,then the trend, persistence,fractal and chaotic are analyzed thoroghly to illustrate that the runoff systems of the Wei River,the Qian River and the QingJiang River all have fractal structures and chaotic characteristics.The annual runoff of the three rivers all appear downtrend,which have a strong persistence.(4)The copula theory is applied to construct the joint distribution of annual runoff in the Wei River and the Qian River, which is the largest tributary of the Wei River in Baoji City,the synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability of rich-pool runoff is analyzed.The results show that the probabilities of rich, moderate and pool flow year of the Wei River and the Qian River, occurring at the same time are 0.72,0.45 and 0.21 respectively,when the Wei River is in moderate flow year, the probability of the Qian River in rich and pool flow year are 0.5 and 0.248, when the Qian River is in pool flow year, the probability of the Wei River in rich flow year is 0.25.(5) The structural changes of water supply and water saving in Baoji city are studied to make clear that the present water supply structure is single,which is mainly relying on conventional water resources,while the development and utilization of non-conventional water resources and water saving have certain potential.(6) For the eco-city water system complexity, the city water demand forecasting methods are carried out.The grey theory and self-memorization principle are combined to establish the forecasting water consumption volume based on gray GM(1,N) self-memory model.On the base of industrial structure and its gross domestic product of Baoji city,a corresponding water demand prediction model of extensive matter element is created. The method of structure analysis and blind number theory were combined to forecast city water consumption volume considering uncertainty.(7) The significance of the eco-city river ecological water demand is discussed,the method to determine the river ecological water demand in Northwest territories is concerned.Calculations show that 3.2079 hundreds million ecological water is needed for the Wei River in Baoji urban area to ensure its vitality when taking full account of urban sewage treatment developing capacity.(8) The meaning and characteristics of recycled water and rainwater resources in the city are analyzed, ecological water support capacity provided by developing urban sewage treatment capacity is expounded,the potential of rainwater resources in the urban district are estimated,the potential demand in urban district for non-conventional water resources is calculated quantitativly.(9) Water safety and security strategies for sustainable development of Baoji city is putforward, which means the construction of water-saving city is a matter of great urgency,needs the rational and efficient use of conventional and non-conventional water resources planned as a whole to protect the healthy development of the eco-city.更多还原