美国公众舆论对美国东亚政策的影响

【作者】 惠春琳；

【导师】 马小军；

【作者基本信息】 中共中央党校 ， 国际政治， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 美国对外政策的制定是多种因素、多种力量综合作用的结果,常常涉及到一系列互动与博弈的过程;这其中既有其国内因素的影响如政党政治、利益集团以及领袖的作用,也有国际环境的掣肘诸如国际格局的演变等。公众舆论作为一种社会性文化因素,自美国两党政治制度确立以来,就一直是影响美国政治生活的一个重要变量,其对美国外交的影响更是不容忽视。公众舆论对美国的外交政策是否具有影响力这一问题,西方学者对此并没有达成共识。有些学者如李普曼、阿尔蒙德和汉斯·摩根索等认为公众具有不知情、不稳定和易变的特点,显然这样产生的舆论不值得信任,不应该对政策产生影响。他们代表现实主义的舆论观。但是贝利、马克尔、索伯、霍尔斯蒂等学者却对这种观点提出了质疑,他们坚持自由主义的舆论观,认为美国政府在决策时,应该充分考虑公众对外交事务的态度,并以此来指导其外交政策。本文根据相关的国际关系理论,在对公众舆论进行分析、界定、比较与阐释的基础上,着重探讨了其对1931年-1941年(从柳条湖到珍珠港)美国东亚(远东)政策的影响,并对不同舆论主体与美国政府间的互动规律以及公众舆论的影响路径进行了必要的说明。从实践的角度来看,在不同的历史时期,公众舆论对美国远东政策的影响又表现出不同的内涵。“九·一八”事变发生之时,美国正深陷全球性经济危机的泥潭。尽管此时美国普通民众的中国形象显现出了微妙的变化,但媒体与国内和平主义运动在要制裁还是要和平等一系列涉及远东国际事务的问题上所表现出的摇摆态度,以及弥漫的孤立主义的保守思潮,使得胡佛政府的远东政策也表现出摇摆、妥协与退让的特点。1933年3月美国完成了政党的轮替,民主党罗斯福政府开始执政。虽然此时的美国仍然没有走出经济危机的阴霾且涉及远东问题的一系列国际事务在新政府的议事日程中显得比较边缘化,特别是在孤立主义思潮与和平主义运动的综合作用下,美国于1934年8月31日通过了中立法;但是在代表白银集团和棉麦生产者利益的精英舆论的不断推动下,加之美国普通公众在日本侵华步骤加剧威胁美国远东利益方面的认知进一步深化。罗斯福政府逐渐开始了其对远东国际事务尤其是对华政策方面的“有限介入”,并试图承担起世界领导责任以抗击萧条,同时积极的应对日本在远东的军事威胁。1937年,罗斯福再次当选美国总统,开始了第二任总统任期。虽然“新政”的实施使美国经济摆脱了彻底崩溃的局面,但是萧条依然是美国经济、社会各领域的显著标签。该时期美国国内的高涨的孤立主义情绪以及不断分裂的和平主义声音与媒体和普通大众在远东国际事务上的国际主义立场形成了鲜明对比。面对日益严峻的远东危机,作为政治精英的罗斯福通过炉边谈话、记者招待会以及第一夫人巡访等形式多层面的加强了与公众舆论的互动。这种互动,尤其是其对公众舆论的引导和塑造不仅有效推动了美国政府在远东国际事务上的政策立场由“有限介入”向“全面介入”转变,而且最终促使美国远东外交政策做出了两个方面的积极调整:一方面是对日禁运的实质性实施,另一方面是美国对华援助政策的不断完善以及援助力度不断加大,直到珍珠港事变爆发后,总统对日宣战,美国对中国的援助全面展开。本文认为,无论是在宏观层面,还是在微观层面,该时期内(1931年-1941年)公众舆论与美国的外交政策(主要是远东政策)都有着很强的关联性。公众舆论对美国远东政策的作用与影响是全面的、客观的,从1931年到1941年,美国的远东政策从不干涉到有限介入,再到全面介入,整个过程中,美国公众舆论的影响力贯穿始终。更多还原

【Abstract】 American foreign policy making is a complicated process, in which many elements interact with each other. American foreign policy is the result of both the change of international situation and restraints of variety of domestic elements. Among these, public opinion is of vital importance. Public opinion has been a significant variable to influence American political life since American bipartisan system was established. Its role in the American foreign policy making process cannot be ignored. Western scholars haven’t arrived at consensus about whether public opinion should have impact on American foreign policy. Some scholars, like Lippmann, Almond and Hans Morgonthau, etc., believe that American government ought not to take public opinion into consideration in that the public are uninformed, unstable and volatile. However, Bailey, Markel, Sobel, Hoslti and so on question their realistic views.They hold liberal views about public opinon and suggest that when making decision, government take into account public opinons about foreign affairs, althouth public opinions are not accordant and coherent.The thesis, based on correspongding theories of international relations and definition, analysis, comparison and interpretation of public opinion, mainly discusses its influence on American Eastern Asian policy (Far Eastern Policy) from 1931 to 1941. Meanwhile, this thesis also specifies the subjects of public opinion, interaction between these subjects and government and its influencing position. However, in different period, public opinion’s influence demonstrates different trends. When Manchurian Crisis broke out, the United States was deeply sunk into global economic crisis. Although China’s image in the eyes of Americans changed a little, the attitude of the media and pacifists toward Japan’s aggression swung between sanction and appeasement. Moreover, isolationists contributed a great deal to this attitude. As a result, Hoover’s administration adopted policy of Non-recognition, which in essence was Non-Participation.In 1933, Franklin Roosevelt came into power. This was the first time for Democrat to take office after the First World War, which made the Administration’s Limited Involvement policy possible. The economy of US was then not recovered and American people’s main concern was not to be involved in the Far Eastern conflict. Therefore, with the promotion of pacifists and isolationists, US passed Neutrality Act. However, interest groups, like the Silver Bloc and communities of cotton and wheat producers attached great importance to markets in China to consume their productions. Meanwhile, Japan’s aggression in North China angered American people. These combined pushed the government to limitedly involve into Far Eastern issues.In 1937, Roosevelt again won the election and started his second-term presidency. Since both Europe and Asia faced serious situation, American people were worrying about whether US would fall into European and Asian wars at the same time. However, isolation was still in blossom, and some pacifists organized campaigns to prevent US from involving into any war. But what’s worth mentioning was that Japan’s bombing Guangzhou and other cities of China and the outbreak of the Second World War stirred up American people’s discontent and fear. Public opinion changed dramatically. Meanwhile, President Roosevelt interacted with the public through fireside talk, press conference and so on to win the public support. According to Gallup polling, majority of subjects agreed to sanction Japan and aid China. Although Japan strongly protested America’s harsher policy toward it, Roosevelt’s Administration adhered to accelerating its sanction range until oil export to Japan was prohibited. After Pearl Harbor was bombed by Japan, Roosevelt declared war against it. Thus, the US was totally involved in Far Eastern issues.The analysis in this thesis shows that there is close accordance and associativity between public opinion and American Far Eastern policy from 1931 to 1941. The impact of public opinion on American foreign policy is objective and comprehensive. From 1931-1941, American Far Eastern policy changed from Non-Recognition (it is, in essence, a Non-Participation policy) to Limited Involvement, and in the end to Total Involvement. In this process, Roosevelt’s Administration was influenced by public opinion all the time.更多还原