我国农业现代化路径研究

【作者】 宁新田；

【导师】 王东京；

【作者基本信息】 中共中央党校 ， 政治经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 在30多年的改革开放历程中,我国的国民经济实现了持续快速发展,综合国力日益增强,人民生活水平总体达到小康,这是举世瞩目的成就。然而我们目前的小康社会,仍然是低水平的、不全面的、不平衡的小康社会,依然面临农业生产力低、农民收入低、农村全面落后的状况。“三农问题”日益成为制约我国社会进步和发展的关键问题。对于如何促进农业和农村的发展,中央在十七大报告中适时提出了走中国特色的农业现代化道路的要求,对我国现代农业的发展道路进行了总体规划。然而,如何在中国当前发展历史阶段上,在中国自然资源禀赋前提下来发展我国的农业生产,具体路径还有待研究和探讨。农业相关领域的国内外研究成果有很多,但有的是过于宽泛,有的又只是局限与农业领域的某一个方面,对于我国的农业发展所面临的实质问题,和现代农业发展的具体路径,还没有达成共识。因此,研究我国农业发展所面临的困境和问题,并且寻找农业现代化的正确道路,无疑就具有重大现实和理论意义,本文就是在这一个方面的一个尝试。除了导言对全文进行统一的描述以外,本文共有五章构成。第一章对农业现代化的相关理论进行了综述,本文的理论逻辑框架,是借鉴以往的经济理论成果,并对某些不足之处的质疑和改进而建立起来的。第二章讨论了农业现代化过程的经济内涵,本章的分析为全文的农业现代化研究确定了一个明确的目标。作为一篇经济学的论文,本文主要对农业现代化的经济过程的困难和路径进行研究,正确的对这一经济过程的实质进行界定是研究的前提。第三章是我国农业现代化的历程、成就及展望。在确定农业现代化过程的经济实质的基础上,本章从劳动生产率和农民收入两个方面对我国农业现代化的历史进行考察,考察了建国以来我国农业领域的主要变革,并对变革的成就进行了简单总结。第四章是农业现代化的理论探析：农业劳动生产率,本章对农业现代化的经济实质的第一个方面——农业劳动生产率的提高进行分析。本章分析认为,传统农业劳动生产率提高缓慢的事实来讲,唯一的可能的解释就是传统农业缺乏规模。在第三节中,提出了一个假设：如果农业生产经营随土地面积扩大而带来的额外收益,即一般所说的规模收益,不是一个连续的函数,而是跳跃性的,规模报酬需要在目前农户的经营面积的几倍基础上才可以得到体现,那么市场中的交易成本将会是高昂的,这将限制农业达到适度规模的过程。接着,对于上述理论分析的结论,运用我国的农业发展数据进行了检验,并且提出了降低农地规模化的交易成本的对策建议。第五章,农业现代化路径研究：增加农民收入。在本章中,对农业现代化过程的经济实质的第二个方面——农民收入水平提高进行了研究。本章首先对农业中劳动生产率和农民的收入水平进行了分析和检验,分析结果表现为：在当前的状况下,大部分的农产品产量的增加,并不能带来农民收入的提高。对农民收入水平的决定分析发现,在一定条件下,农民的人均纯收入水平主要决定于农业的从业人数。接下来先讨论了影响劳动力资源配置效率的因素,发现市场中的劳动力资源配置受到两个因素的影响：制度阻碍和心理成本,因此市场中的劳动资源流动总是低于潜在水平。在第三节中,对我国影响农业劳动力转移的具体因素进行了分析,在借鉴发达国家农业劳动力转移政策的基础上,对我国的农业劳动力转移提出针对性的政策选择。本文可能在以下三个方面实现了些许创新：第一、详细对农业现代化的过程进行分析论证的基础上,提出农业现代化过程的经济内涵是农业劳动生产率和农民收入的共同提高过程,缺一不可。这个结论会避免对农业现代化的片面认识而导致的错误结论,比如如果就发达国家现代化的某些特点,像机械化、电气化、化学化等作为农业现代化路径分析的起点,就可能造成错误的结论,单纯的就劳动生产率为目标也可能会使最后的政策适得其反。对农业现代化的研究,需要对农业劳动生产率和农民收入提高同时把握。第二、在对影响农业劳动生产率的因素进行逐个分析的基础上,对缺乏科技投入是传统农业落后的根本原因的观点进行了探讨,在此基础上提出根本原因主要在于缺乏规模。在对我国改革开放以来的农业发展数据进行分析的基础上,提出农业经营的规模优势不是一个连续的函数,而是跳跃性的,并由此决定较高的交易成本会阻止传统农业中达到适度规模的过程,进而影响农地资源的配置效率,影响农业劳动生产率的提高。第三、对我国的主要农产品产量和农民收入关系分析的基础上,提出当前制约农民收入水平的不是农业劳动生产率,在国民收入总量既定的情况下,农民的收入水平完全决定于农业的从业人数。在对劳动力流动的行为进行分析基础上,提出农民收入水平提高缓慢的根本原因在于制度因素和心理成本对农业劳动力转移的阻碍,激励农业劳动力转移是增加农民收入的必然途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the course of 30 years’reform and opening up, China’s national economy has seen sustained rapid growth, with the overall national strength increasing, people’s living standards improved. It is a remarkable achievement beyond all doubt. However, our current well-off society is still low, incomplete, unbalanced society, we still face low agricultural productivity, low income farmers, backward rural areas. Those three rural issues increasingly become the key that restricts the further development of our country. Therefore, the focus and the difficulties of well-off society are in rural areas.In order to promote agriculture and rural development, the 17 Party congress report pointed out the overall outline for the modernization of agriculture with Chinese characteristics. However, in the current historical stage of development, with the certain natural resource endowments, the specific route has yet to be studied and discussed. In the agriculture-related fields, there are many domestic and foreign research results, but some are too broad, and some are only one aspect of the agricultural sector. The real problems agricultural development facing and the specific path to a modern agriculture are yet no consensus. Therefore, analyzing the obstacles and finding the correct path to modern agriculture are undoubtedly of great significance in reality and theory. This article is a try.Except for the introduction, this paper constitutes five chapters. In the first chapter theories about the agricultural modernization were reviewed. The second chapter discusses the process of agricultural modernization, the full text of this chapter, set a clear goal. As an economics paper, this paper focuses difficulties on the modernization of agriculture. Then correctly defining the essence of this economic process is the prerequisite. The third chapter is about the history, achievements and prospects of Chinese agriculture. In this chapter the history of china’s agriculture modernization was analyzed from two aspects, labor productivity and farm incomes.In the fourth and fifth chapters the right path to modern agriculture is discussed in theory and practice. The fourth focuses on productivity and the fifth income. As the fact that the productivity of traditional agriculture rises slowly, the unique possible explanation is the lack of scale in traditional agriculture. In section III of the fourth chapter an assumption is made that the returns to scale is not of a continuous function but rather a segmented function. Then the returns to scale would be gained just while the scale was several times of the current one. The transaction cost would be very high in that process, which would limit the scale of agriculture. Then the above assumption was testified by the data. Then some proposals to reduce the transaction cost were given. In the fifth chapter the analysis about the relation between the agricultural productivity and the income of farmers shows that the increasing of output would not be bound to lead to the increasing of income. Per capita net income of farmers depends just on the number of persons engaging in agriculture. The efficiency of the labor market was pulled down by two factors, institutional obstacles and psychological costs. So the efficiency of labor market is always lower than the potential one. In the third section, some proposals to promote the transferring of Chinese agricultural labor were given on the basis of the practices of the developed countries.It would be exciting if the perspectives of this paper in three areas which may be little innovations can be accepted. First, put forward that the essence of agricultural modernization in economy is improving in agricultural productivity and farmers’ income both. It will do good fro avoiding biased understanding about agricultural modernization which could lead to wrong conclusions. Second, overthrow the view that the lack of science and technology is the key reason that obstacles the developing of traditional agriculture, and prove that the lack of scale is the right one. The data of Chinese agriculture proves that the returns from the scale expansion are not continuous, but piecewise and the high transaction costs will prevent the traditional agriculture form moderate scale. Third, put forward that the income of farmers is determined by the proportion of the number of farmers in the whole nation, but not the labor productivity in agriculture. The unique path to raising the income of farmers is to encourage the transition of labors in agriculture by erasing the institutional obstacles and offsetting the psychological costs.更多还原