我国货币政策有效性研究

【作者】 唐伟；

【导师】 张燕喜；

【作者基本信息】 中共中央党校 ， 政治经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 我国实施现代意义上的货币政策的历史非常短暂,学术界和职能部门对货币政策是否有效非常关注,但如何评价货币政策的有效性则没有定论,而只有正确地评价出货币政策的效果,才能准确地分析出影响货币政策有效性的原因,并有针对性地提出增强货币政策效果的建议,本文所做的就是这项工作。本文在归结了相关理论的基础上,基于我国货币政策有效性研究的现状,构建了评价我国货币政策有效性的框架,即:首先对货币是否中性进行判断;然后分析货币政策对宏观经济的总量效果,并将总量效果区分为货币政策的产出效果和时滞效果,产出效果以动态货币政策乘数表示,时滞效果又分为外部时滞效果和内部时滞效果;由于我国存在明显的城乡二元经济结构问题和区域经济发展不平衡问题,本文又分析了我国货币政策的城乡效果差异和区域效果差异。本文对我国货币政策有效性研究所使用的方法主要有:时序图、格兰杰因果检验、(结构)向量自回归模型、状态空间模型等。本文对我国货币政策有效性的研究结果如下:首先,对我国货币中性问题的研究表明,对货币中性的判断既要区分货币层次,也要区分变量的频度。从月度数据和季度数据看,我国三个层次的货币供应量M0、M1和M2都是非中性的。而从年度数据看,则只有M1是非中性的,从更低频的二年度数据看,M1也变为中性的了。研究结果使我们得出的推论是:不管货币层次如何,货币在短期往往表现为非中性,而在长期则表现为中性。其次,对我国动态货币政策乘数的研究表明,我国的货币政策乘数并不稳定。1983年到1990年,货币政策乘数总体上逐渐增加;而从1990年到2007年,货币政策乘数总体上逐渐减小。同时,在这两个时间段内,货币政策乘数分别表现出局部的波动性。再次,本文在区分了货币政策的外部时滞和内部时滞后的研究表明,从外部时滞看,M0的产出时滞是3个季度,价格时滞是4个季度;M1的产出时滞是2个季度,价格时滞是4个季度;M2的产出时滞是7个季度,价格时滞是6个季度。比较来说,M1的时滞较短,而M2的时滞较长,M0的时滞居于其间。从内部时滞看,我国货币政策实践中的典型案例表明我国货币政策的内部时滞较长,这表明我国货币政策决策部门对经济形势的判断能力和决策能力还有待提高。最后,使用M1代表的统一的货币政策对我国城乡效果的考察表明:货币政策对城市经济的效果要大于对农村经济的效果;而它对四个区域生产总值的效果差异则为:货币政策对东部地区的效果最强,中部次之,然后是西部,对东北地区的效果最弱。从以上几个方面综合来看,我国货币政策的有效性并不理想。本文进而从货币政策传导环节和城乡、区域之间货币政策传导环节差异的角度,分析了影响货币政策有效性的因素。第一,从影响货币政策传导的一般因素看,我国央行货币政策的决策水平还不高;商业银行业务形式单一,产品创新能力不强,存在信贷配给行为;国有企业存在法人治理结构不完善、产权改革滞后、政企不分等问题,使得国有企业的投资效率较低并且存在预算软约束,而以中小型企业为主的非公有企业,由于自身的发展水平较低,使其融资需求很难得到满足;由于收入水平较低、社会保障不健全等原因,我国居民存在低消费和高储蓄行为;我国金融市场的发展还很不完善。以上这些因素制约了货币政策有效性的发挥。第二,从经济、金融的城乡差异和区域差异的分析看,城乡之间以及区域之间在产业结构、企业结构、居民行为等经济因素方面和金融规模、金融机构、金融市场等金融因素方面存在明显的差距,使得货币政策产生城乡效果差异和区域效果差异。本文结束于对提高我国货币政策有效性建议的构想,认为:要提高我国货币政策的有效性,需要完善货币政策传导的各环节;提高货币政策对农村经济的效果;增强货币政策区域效果的协调性。这就要求:提高中央银行的决策水平;完善国有商业银行的改革,发展中小商业银行,完善社会信用制度建设;优化国有经济布局,深化国有企业改革,努力增强中小企业的自身竞争力;提高居民收入水平,推动社会保障、医疗、住房、教育等领域的改革,增强居民现代金融意识;完善货币市场建设和资本市场建设,提高两个市场的一体化程度。提高农村居民的收入;加大政府对农村经济的支持力度;改善农村经济结构;发展农村金融。促进区域经济协调发展;促进区域金融协调发展;实施区域差异性货币政策。更多还原

【Abstract】 The history of modern monetary policy in China is very short. Although the academia and the functional department pay much attention to the validity of monetary policy, it is not certain on how to evaluate the validity of monetary policy. Only when we evaluate the validity of monetary policy correctly, we can analyze the reasons influencing the validity of monetary policy and put forward some pointed suggestions on enhancing the validity of monetary policy. It is the subject of this paper.Based on the sum-up of relevant theoretics and the current researches on the validity of monetary policy, this paper builds up the frame of evaluating the validity of monetary policy in China: Firstly, we should judge whether the money is neutral or not; then we analyze the aggregate effects of monetary policy on the macro economy and distinguish the effects into two parts which are output effect and time lag effect, the former can be expressed by dynamic monetary policy multiplier and the latter can be divided into outside and inside time lag effect; because of the dual economic structure in urban and rural areas and the imbalance of regional economic developments in China, this paper analyzes the differences between urban and rural effects of monetary policy as well as the differences among regional effects of monetary policy. The methods of sequence diagram, granger causality test, (structural) vector autoregression model, state space model and so on are used in this paper.The results of the research on the validity of monetary policy in China are as follows: Firstly, the research on the issue of the monetary neutrality shows that we shoulddistinguish the money levels and the variables of different frequencies when judging whether money is neutral or not. When we use monthly and quarterly data, three levels of money M0, M1 and M2 are all non-neutral. But when we use yearly data, only M1 is non-neutral, and when we use the lower frequency biennial data, M1 becomes neutral too. We can conclude from the results that the money tend to be non-neutral in short run but neutral in long run despite the money levels.Secondly, the research on the dynamic monetary policy multiplier in China shows that the monetary policy multiplier in China is unstable. From 1983 to 1990, the monetary policy multiplier increases gradually as a whole; but from 1990 to 2007, the monetary policy multiplier decreases gradually. Meanwhile, the monetary policy multiplier fluctuates separately in these two time segments.Thirdly, this paper distinguishes the outside and inside lags of monetary policy. As for the outside lag, the time lag of M0 on output is 3 quarters and its 4 quarters on price; the time lag of M1 on output is 2 quarters and its 4 quarters on price; the time lag of M2 on output is 7 quarters and its 6 quarters on price. Comparatively, the time lags of M1 are shorter, the time lags of M2 are longer and the time lags of M0 are middle. As for the inside lag, the typical cases in the monetary policy practices show that the inside lag of monetary policy is long, the decision-making department should improve the ability of judging the economic situation and the ability of making decisions.Lastly, the uniform monetary policy represented by M1 has different effects in urban and rural areas: the effect on the urban economy is stronger than on the rural economy; and the differences among regional effects of monetary policy are as follows: the effect on the east is the strongest, the middle is next, then the west, and the northeast is the weakest.Evaluating from the several aspects mentioned above, the validity of the monetary policy in China is not perfect.Then this paper analyzes the factors influencing the validity of monetary policy from the view of segments of monetary policy transmission as well as the view of differences in segments of monetary policy transmission between urban and rural areas and among regions.Firstly, as for the general factors influencing the transmission of monetary policy, we can know that the decision-making level of the Central Bank is not high; as for the commercial banks, the forms of merchant banking are single, the capability for product innovation is weak and there exist credit rationing; as for the state-owned enterprises, the corporate governance is not perfect, the property right reform lags and the functions of the government and enterprises mixed up, all of these problems make the investment efficiency of the state-owned enterprises very low and lead to soft budget constraint, most of non-state-owned enterprises are small and medium-sized, for the sake of their lower development, their financing demands are difficult to be satisfied; the Chinese denizens prefer low consumption and high saving because of the lower earning and the distempered social security; the financial market is not perfect. The factors mentioned above negatively affect the validity of the monetary policy.Secondly, through the analysis on the differences in economy and finance between urban and rural areas as well as among regions, we can know that there are obvious differences in economic factors such as industrial structure, enterprise structure, and residents’behavior and so on between urban and rural areas and among regions. Also there are obvious differences in financial factors such as financial scale, financial institution and financial market and so on between urban and rural areas and among regions. All of these differences cause the different monetary policy effects between urban and rural areas and among regions.Lastly, this paper conceives the suggestions on improving the validity of monetary policy in China. To enhance the validity of the monetary policy in China, we should perfect the segments of monetary policy transmission, enhance the effect of monetary policy on rural economy and strengthen the coordination of the regional effects of monetary policy. This requires us to take measures as follows:Improving the decision-making level of Central Bank; perfecting the reform of state-owned commercial banks, developing the small and medium-sized commercial banks and perfecting the construction of social credit system; optimizing state-owned economic layout; deepening the reform of state-owned enterprises and enhancing self competition of small and medium-sized enterprises; improving the income level of denizens; forcing the reforms in the fields of social security, medical service, housing and education and strengthening the modern financial consciousness of denizens; perfecting the construction of money and capital markets and increasing the integration of these two markets.Improving the earnings of rural residents; enhancing government support for rural economy; improving the structure of rural economy; developing rural finance. Promoting harmonious development of regional economy and finance; performing different monetary policies in different regions.更多还原