全球化背景下中国金融稳定研究

【作者】 成丽敏；

【导师】 杨秋宝；

【作者基本信息】 中共中央党校 ， 政治经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 金融稳定问题一直是国内外金融界研究的重要理论课题,在金融全球化不断发展的今天又具有较高的实践价值。金融是现代市场经济的核心,金融的稳定与安全至关重要。然而,纵观世界金融发展史,金融全球化发展历程始终与金融危机相伴相随。尤其是近几十年来金融危机爆发的频率越来越高,规模和影响越来越大,不仅在金融体系不健全的发展中国家爆发金融危机,在金融体系相对健全的发达国家也会爆发金融危机。以2007年夏天爆发的美国次贷危机所引发的全球金融危机为例,其对世界经济造成的冲击至今无法估量。因此,研究本国及世界金融体系如何在全球化发展背景下更好的发挥配置资源的功能,并促进经济增长成为许多国内外学者深入思考的理论问题。对我国来说,金融全球化发展既给我们带来机遇,同时也对我国的金融稳定带来严峻的挑战。尤其是我国加入世贸组织以后,金融领域的改革与开放力度进一步加大,金融业所面临的市场竞争更加激烈,金融风险和不稳定因素也随之凸显,金融体系的安全与稳定问题面临前所未有的考验。在此背景下,如何确保财政和货币政策行之有效、金融功能正常发挥、金融体系健康平稳运行成为我们面临的重要现实问题。本文正是在此理论和现实意义基础上,对金融全球化背景下的中国金融稳定问题进行了深入的分析。首先本文在前人研究的基础上对金融稳定内涵进行了探讨,指出金融稳定是一个宏观概念,它是指在一定社会经济环境下的一种动态均衡的状态。在这种状态下,金融体系内部不同系统之间结构协调,并与社会经济发展有良好的适应性;金融系统能够持续有效的发挥资源配置、推动社会财富增长的功能;同时,金融系统能够有效地管理风险,防范金融风险的集中爆发;金融系统具备对内外冲击的抵御能力以及从冲击导致的不平衡中自我恢复的能力。同时,对本文的分析背景——金融全球化做了详细介绍,指出金融全球化的表现及本质,金融全球化在促进金融机构、金融市场和金融业务的国际化发展的同时,也形成了金融风险的国际传导机制,尤其对发展中国家来说,金融全球化加剧了金融资产的泡沫化,增加了金融监管的难度,加深了发展中国家的金融脆弱性。因此,在此背景下分析金融稳定具有一定意义。其次,本文选择金融结构、金融自由化、金融监管作为分析金融稳定问题的三个视角,阐述了这三方面对金融稳定的影响及其相互作用机制。认为金融结构不仅通过其内部组成部分直接影响金融稳定,还通过货币政策和实体经济间接影响金融稳定,同时金融稳定反作用于金融结构,本文还分析了金融结构优化的一般路径;金融自由化是提高金融竞争力、促进经济发展的重要途径,但是,金融自由化也是金融不稳定的重要原因,尤以二十世纪七、八十年代在新兴市场化国家兴起的自由化浪潮,在一定程度上造成了金融危机的严重后果;金融监管是一国防范金融危机、保证金融体系健康稳定发展的必要手段。金融全球化发展使得一国金融监管难度增加、监管主权受限以及出现监管套利行为,因此,在全球化发展冲击下,建立适应本国发展的监管模式,建立区域和国际间金融监管的协调与合作机制是抵御金融危机的重要途径。再次,本文在分析金融危机理论基础上,指出经济过度虚拟化是金融危机引发的重要原因,并以这次美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机为例,探讨了美国次贷危机的国内和国际传导机制,对次贷危机进行了深刻的反思。最后,本文把研究的重心落在我国,从金融结构、金融自由化和金融监管三个视角分析影响我国金融稳定的因素。指出我国正面临金融全球化的冲击,尽管目前我国的金融体系总体保持稳定,但依然存在一些问题,具体包括存在金融结构失衡问题,金融配置资源效率低下;金融深化不够,利率市场化进程缓慢,汇率制度改革不够彻底,资本账户尚未开放;尚未建立完善的金融监管制度等。针对这些问题,本文试图提出维护我国金融稳定的政策建议,包括改善融资结构比例、促进货币市场和资本市场协调发展、深化人民币利率和汇率制度改革,提高金融监管水平及推进金融监管国际合作机制的建立等。更多还原

【Abstract】 The financial stability issue has always been important theoretical topic of financial circle at home and abroad, which presents high practical value in the day of ceaseless financial globalization.Finance is the core of modern market economy, of which the stability and safety are foremost. However, in light of the development history of finance in the world, the development road of financial globalization has always run along with financial crisis. Especially, in recent decades, financial crisis has broken out in larger scale more frequently and caused more severe impact. It broke out not only in developing country with imperfect financial system but also in developed country with mature financial system. For example, global financial crisis triggered by subprime lending crisis in USA in Summer 2007 has released a hit that is unpredictable at present. Therefore, the study on how the financial system of one country and the world plays the role of resources distribution in better way in globalization background and promotes the economic growth has turned out to be an issue that many scholars at home and abroad focus on.For China, our integration into the globalization is unavoidable. The global development brings us both opportunity and serious challenge to our financial stability. Especially with China’s access into WTO, the reform and opening in financial field are intensified. Financial industry is confronted with more severe market competition. Financial risk and instability factor become outstanding. The safety and stability of financial system is surrounded by unprecedented challenge. In such background, how to guarantee the efficiency of fiscal and monetary policies as well as the normal function and sound & stable operation of financial system has turned out to be important practical problem for us.On the basis of such theory and practical significance, this article presents an in-depth analysis on financial stability in China in the financial globalization background. Firstly, the article discusses the connotation of financial stability on the basis of existing studies, indicates that financial stability is macroscopic concept and refers to a dynamically balanced status in certain social and economic environment. In such status, various parts of financial system run in balanced structure, and accord with the development of society and economy; financial system can effectively and continuously exert a function of resources distribution and social wealth growth boost; moreover, the financial system can effectively manage the risk and prevent the centralized outbreak of financial risks; and it has the ability of resistance against internal and external shocks and self-recovery from an unbalance caused by shock. At the same time, this article analyzes the impact of financial globalization upon financial stability and indicates the significance of the study on the financial stability in globalization background.Secondly, the article selects financial structure, financial liberalization and financial supervision as three aspects in the analysis on financial stability, and elaborates the impacts of these three aspects upon financial stability as well as their interaction mechanism. The financial structure not only directly influences financial stability through its internal components but also indirectly impacts the financial stability via monetary policy and real economy. Moreover, financial stability reacts on financial structure; financial deepening is important channel for improving financial competitiveness edge and promoting economic growth while financial liberalization is also main reason of financial crisis; and financial supervision is necessary means for one country to prevent financial crisis and guarantee sound and stable development of financial system. Under the impact of globalization development, the coordination and cooperation on financial supervision between different regions and countries are main channel for resisting financial crisis.Finally, the article focuses on China and analyzes the factors influencing financial stability in three aspects i.e. financial structure, financial liberalization and financial supervision. It points out that China is now confronted with the impact of financial globalization. Although financial system in China is stable by and large, there still exist some problems e.g. unbalanced financial structure, low efficiency in financial resources distribution; inadequate financial deepening, slow progress of market-oriented operation of interest rate, non-thorough reform of exchange rate system, non-open capital account; and no perfect financial supervision rules. With regard to the problems, the article tries to bring forward the policy proposals for maintaining financial stability in China, including financial structure optimization, deepened reform of the rules on RMB interest rate and exchange rate, improvement of financial supervision level and promotion of the setup of international cooperation mechanism for financial supervision.更多还原