【作者】 范珉；

【导师】 刘晓君；

【作者基本信息】 西安建筑科技大学 ， 结构工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 进入21世纪以来,恐怖袭击、自然灾害、人为事故等突发事件给人类造成的悲剧不断提醒我们,公共安全是保证人类正常生活的重要前提。公共建筑是人类活动的重要场所,具有人群高度密集的特点,一旦发生突发事件,如火灾、地震、恐怖袭击等,极易造成群死群伤的灾难性后果,严重影响社会的安定和正常发展。因此,如何对突发事件加以预防,如何对可能发生的突发事件做好预警管理是公共建筑的管理者所面临的重要问题。人群密集是公共建筑的典型特征,人员安全是公共建筑安全的核心内容,现代公共建筑需要一个能提供智能、动态预警信息的管理系统。本文将人群密集这一公共建筑的典型特征,简称为“集群”,针对公众活动频繁的公共建筑,对公共建筑突发集群事件预警管理展开研究。首先明确了预警管理和应急管理的区别,将预警管理划分为机理分析、识别诊断、预控措施三个主要内容,为后续章节提供了研究框架。通过对我国2005～2008年公共建筑发生的突发事件进行调研,总结了公共建筑突发事件的发生原因和结果,并建立了结构方程的模型,运用AMOS及SPSS软件进行了验证,从而发现：在我国公共建筑发生的突发事件中,无论是火灾、爆炸或结构破坏,都容易演化为公共建筑的集群事件,既包括原发集群事件,也包括继发集群事件,形成了一个我国公共建筑突发事件的演化模型,为后续研究提供了研究对象。对公共建筑集群事件进行了风险源分析,总结了风险演化过程；其次分析了公共建筑突发集群事件要考虑的预警指标,包括人群聚集指标、应急疏散指标、情绪指标和公共建筑的应急准备指标,并给出了部分指标的量化公式；选择2005～2008年发生的典型的集群事件作为样本提出了基于突变理论的公共建筑突发集群事件的预警分级模型,进行突变级数的分析和评价,得到了考虑公共建筑饱和度、人群情绪指标、建筑管理指标和安全事故隐患指标在内的预警分级突变级数的大致范围,并运用实例进行了验证。研究了公共建筑突发集群事件预控措施的设计问题。本文提出,公共建筑突发集群事件的预控措施包括两个：人群疏散预案和心理疏导预案。对人群疏散预案的设计首先构造了基于Link-Node的建筑空间网络,分析了人群疏散预案的基础模型,从博弈论的角度分析了由于信息不畅所引发的疏散个体在疏散群体间路径选择的问题,并引用实例进行了验证和分析；其次对公共建筑突发事件下的心理疏导预案的设计建立了信号传递博弈模型,指出了公共建筑管理者在应急疏散中信息发布的重要作用。对预警管理系统进行了构建。集成了空间网络模型,人群监测系统与密度识别的感应系统,以及基于GSM系统的预警信息发布和传递系统。运用前几章对公共建筑突发集群事件预警管理关键问题研究的结果,启动预控措施,计算出疏散人群的最佳路径选择方案,最终将疏散信息传到达公共建筑内部的人群,从而达到预警的目的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Into the 21st century, human tragedy caused by terrorist attacks, natural disasters, man-made accidents and other emergencies constantly reminding us that public safety is an important prerequisite for normal human life. Public buildings are important place for human activities, with the characteristics of high concentration of population. In case of emergencies, such as fires, earthquakes or terrorist attacks, disastrous consequences will be happened, and social stability and normal development will be affected seriously. Therefore, how to prevent emergencies and establish good early warning system are important issues that public building managers must to be faced.Crowd concentration is typical feature of public buildings, personnel security is the core of public buildings security, and modern public buildings need to be provided a smart, dynamic warning management system. Crowd concentration Phenomenon in public buildings is referred to as "clusters" in this paper, and warning management system for sudden cluster events in public buildings has been studied.First, difference between warning management and emergency management had been distinguished. Event mechanism analyses, risk identify and diagnosis, pre-control measures has been classified as three main elements in early-warning management, and provides a research framework for follow-up section.Through research from 2005 to 2008 emergency incidents occurred in public building, the occurrence of unexpected events cause and effect in public buildings has been summed up, and a structural equation model has been established, using AMOS and SPSS software to verify. It’s showed that place in our public buildings, emergency, whether fire, explosion or structural damage to public buildings are easy to evolve into a cluster event, both the primary cluster events, including secondary cluster events, formed a public building in China emergencies evolution model for the study follow-up study.The risk sources of cluster events has been analysed and summarized the risk of evolution. Early warning indicators, including indicators of the crowd, emergency evacuation indicators, sentiment indicators and indicators of emergency preparedness, public buildings have been analysed and given some quantitative indicators of the formula. Sudden cluster of cases from 2005 to 2008 of public buildings as the typical sample to be considered, based on catastrophe theory of public buildings warning sudden cluster of events classification model for analysis and evaluation of Mutation Series, have been taken into account saturation of public buildings, the crowd sentiment indicators, construction management indicators and safety accidents, including early warning indicator of the general scope of classification mutation series, and validated the use of examples.Design of pre-control measures to sudden cluster in public buildings has been discussed. In this paper, pre-control measures of cluster emergency including two aspects:evacuation plans and psychological counseling plan. The design of the evacuation plan has been constructed firstly based on the Link-Node network of construction space, then analysed the basic model of crowd evacuation plan. Evacuation route choice problem has been analysed when individuals among populations caused by poor information transfer from the perspective of Game theory, and cited examples of the validation and analysis. Psychological counseling plan has been designed by signaling game model, showed that information transfer play important role in the emergency evacuation in public buildings.An early warning management system was constructed. Integrated space network model, crowd monitoring system, density identification sensor systems, and early warning information transfer system based on GSM. Based on research results of previous chapters, the pre-control measures has been started, calculated the best path for evacuation options and eventually transmitted evacuation information reach crowd within the public buildings, so as to achieve early warning purposes.更多还原