经济增长、收入分配与农村贫困

【作者】 祝伟；

【导师】 郭志仪；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 区域经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 消除贫困是经济发展的首要目标。中国曾是世界上贫困人口最多的国家。改革开放后,随着经济的快速增长和扶贫开发工作的全面展开,中国的农村贫困率出现了大幅度下降,取得了空前的减贫成就,是导致世界范围内贫困率大为降低的主要原因。目前,中国农村贫困人口呈现出向甘肃等自然条件恶劣、经济发展相对滞后地区集中的明显趋势。甘肃省已成为中国农村贫困人口比例最高、贫困程度最深的省份之一。经济增长、收入分配与贫困之间存在相互影响、相互作用的复杂关系,贫困状况的动态变化是经济增长和收入分配变化共同作用的结果,厘清三者之间的关系,有助于理解贫困的成因和发展趋势,制定合理的经济发展和扶贫开发政策。本文以甘肃省的农村贫困问题为研究对象,采用理论分析与经验分析相结合的方法,讨论了经济增长与农村贫困、收入分配与农村贫困、经济增长与收入分配之间的关系,然后从贫困(Poverty)-经济增长(Growth)-收入不平等(Inequality)三角(PGI Triangle)的视角,运用贫困变动影响因素分解方法,实证检验了经济增长和收入不平等对甘肃省农村贫困的影响。本文首先介绍了甘肃省农村贫困人口总量及其变化,贫困性质的转变,对甘肃省农村贫困成因进行了框架性分析,总结了甘肃省反贫困斗争的历程,扶贫开发中的成功经验和存在的主要问题.接着,运用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验法实证研究了甘肃省经济增长与农村贫困之间的关系,得出经济增长是甘肃省农村贫困减少的重要原因,贫困的减少也能对经济增长产生促进作用；分析了经济增长的减贫机制,认为经济增长主要通过提高农村居民劳动参与率和劳动、土地等生产要素的价格以及增加政府的转移支付等方式实现其减贫效果；通过经济增长结构的分解发现,第一产业的增长对甘肃省农村贫困减少的效果最为明显；分析了经济增长减贫效果边际收益递减的原因,并提出了“有利于穷人的经济增长”的方法和措施。本文对收入分配和农村贫困关系的研究认为,现阶段贫困问题的本质就是收入不平等问题,不平等导致了贫困的出现和恶化,甚至出现贫困的代际传递,从而造成两极分化,使得收入不平等程度不断扩大。本文还从收入结构的视角研究了省际间收入差距的扩大,认为,收入结构的变化及其分布差异是导致农村居民收入差距扩大的重要原因。通过实证分析发现,甘肃省农村居民收入水平与收入不平等符合倒U假说,而且收入不平等程度的提高对农村居民收入增加具有促进作用。最后,从PGI三角的视角,研究了经济增长和收入分配对甘肃省农村贫困变动的影响,通过贫困变动影响因素的分解发现,2001-2007年各年中经济增长在减少农村贫困方面均发挥着显著作用,但收入分配因素对农村贫困的影响则表现出了较大的差异性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Poverty reduction is the primary goal of development. China has had the largest poverty population in the world. With the rapid economic growth and government’s full-swing poverty alleviation work, China’s rural poverty incidence has dropped dramatically after reform and opening up. China’s poverty reduction over the last 30 years has been remarkable, and is the main reason caused worldwide poverty reduction. At present, the tendency is increasingly obvious that China’s rural poverty population concentrated in the areas with harsh natural conditions and relatively slow economic growth rate such as Gansu province. Gansu has been one of the provinces which still have serious poverty problem in China.There is a complex and interactive relationship among economic growth, income distribution and poverty. The dynamic changes in poverty results from interaction of economic growth and income distribution. To clarify the relationship among them will help us understand the causes of poverty and its development trends, thus formulate the proper economic development policy and poverty alleviation policies.The thesis studies the rural poverty issue in Gansu province, adopting the combined methods of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. The thesis firstly discusses the relationship between economic growth and rural poverty, income distribution and rural poverty, economic growth and income distribution, and then from the perspective of PGI Triangle (Poverty-Growth-Inequality Triangle), with the method of decomposing the factors affecting poverty change, the thesis tests the effects of economic growth and income inequality on the rural poverty in Gansu province.This thesis firstly introduces the poverty population in rural area of Gansu province and its change, the changing nature of poverty, the causes of rural poverty in Gansu province, and summarizes the history of the fight against poverty in Gansu province, the successful experiences in poverty alleviation and the main problems at present. Then, using the cointegration analysis and Granger causality test, this thesis empirically researches the relationship between economic growth and rural poverty in Gansu province, and concludes that growth is the main force to reduce rural poverty and poverty reduction is good for economic growth. We analyzes the poverty reduction mechanism of economic growth, and asserts that in the means of improving labor participation rate, increasing the returns of production factors such as labor and land, as well as increasing the government’s transfer payment, economic growth leads to poverty reduction. Through the decomposition of economic growth by sectors, this thesis finds that the growth of primary sector had the most significant effect on rural poverty reduction. This thesis analyzes the reasons of the marginal effect of diminishing returns of growth on poverty reduction, and proposes some "pro-poor growth" measures.According to the study on the relationship between income inequality and rural poverty, in essence, the poverty issue is the inequality issue at the present stage. The inequality has led to the emergence and aggravation of poverty, even intergenerational transmission of poverty, resulting in polarization and income inequality expansion. In addition, from the perspective of the income structure the thesis studies income disparities between provinces. It concludes that changes in the income structure and distribution of income differences are the important reason for income gap increase among provinces. In this paper, empirical analysis shows that the income level of rural residents and income inequality accord to inverted U hypothesis in Gansu province, and the increasing degree of income inequality promotes income increase of rural residents.Finally, from PGI perspective, the thesis studies the effect of economic growth and income inequality on poverty changes in Gansu province. Through the decomposition of poverty changes, it is found that economic growth played a significant role on rural poverty reduction during the period of 2001 to 2007, but income distribution’s impact on rural poverty reduction showed a larger difference.更多还原