小西北地区经济发展与货币政策效应区域差异实证研究

【作者】 景文宏；

【导师】 聂华林；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 区域经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 促进区域协调发展,是改革开放和社会主义现代化建设的战略任务,也是全面建设小康社会、构建社会主义和谐社会的必然要求。统筹区域发展,缩小区域发展差距,不仅是经济问题,也是政治问题。实现区域科学、协调、可持续发展是关系到我国综合国力提高、民族团结、社会稳定以及经济社会持续健康发展的重大战略问题。改革开放以来,尤其是西部大开发以来,我国西部地区获得了突飞猛进的发展。但东西部地区之间经济社会发展的差距也在不断扩大,区域协调发展面临繁重任务。在各项优惠政策的支持推动下,陕、甘、宁、青、新西北五省(区)的经济社会发展取得了令人欣喜的不俗成绩。与此同时,五省之间的经济发展能力和经济增长水平产生了明显的差距,即甘肃、宁夏、青海的发展明显落后于陕西和新疆。从而形成了西部大开发中的一种新的区域经济现象——小西北地区(甘、宁、青)经济发展严重滞后的问题。货币政策效应的区域差异影响区域经济协调发展。由于各区域经济金融发展水平、经济结构、产业结构等方面的条件千差万别,因而各区域的货币政策传导机制存在差异,统一的货币政策必然会对各区域经济社会发展产生差异性的效果。从长期来讲,忽视区域差异效应的货币政策不但会激化区域资源配置不均衡的矛盾,而且会加剧区域发展不协调。货币政策目标不仅在于保持经济增长、稳定价格、实现充分就业、平衡国际收支四大目标,还在于促进区域经济协调发展。本文采用VAR模型和Panal模型证明,我国货币政策效应在八大经济区域之间存在差异性。相对发达地区对货币冲击的反应更为灵敏,欠发达地区较为滞缓,货币冲击对相对发达地区的影响深度大于欠发达地区。本文通过比较货币政策效应在不同经济周期下影响程度的差异发现,扩张性的货币政策会加大区域经济发展差距,紧缩性的货币政策则会缩小区域经济发展差距。在经济衰退阶段,如果采取扩张性货币政策,欠发达地区经济复苏的周期要长于发达地区。在经济过热阶段,紧缩性的货币政策在发达地区的效果要比欠发达地区明显。从经济发展的空间来看,中国的货币政策实行一刀切,缺乏弹性,在一定程度上加剧了区域间经济发展的不平衡。本文通过对小西北地区的案例研究表明,货币政策调控对小西北三省(区)工业的影响程度存在差异；对固定资产投资的影响程度较弱；对房地产市场投资影响作用有限,却对房地产需求产生了显著的冲击;对经济结构的影响不明显；对存贷款结构的影响较大。从应对国际金融危机冲击来看,小西北地区的经济复苏要比沿海发达地区更不稳定。基于货币政策效应存在区域差异的现实,本文提出了丰富差别化调控政策的内涵、加强财政政策与货币政策的协调配合、发展完善小西北地区金融体系、加速小西北地区市场化进程、增强小西北地区经济自生能力等加快小西北地区经济发展的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Promoting coordinated regional development is the strategic task of reform and opening up as well as socialist modernization, and also a requirement for building a well-off and harmonious society. It is not only an economic issue but a political one to coordinate and narrow the gap in regional development. Realizing scientific, harmonious and sustainable development of a region is one of the major strategies, which could increase China’s overall national strength, maintain national unity and social stability, and keep sustained and healthy economic social development.Since the reform and opening up, especially the Western Development Program, the western region has made rapid progress. But the gap of development of the economic and social is expanding between the eastern region and western region, regional development is facing arduous task. Under the support of preferential policies, Shanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, Xinjiang, the economic and social development of the new five northwestern provinces has made gratifying finish. At the same time, the capacity of economic development and the economic growth had a significant gap between the five provinces, that is the development of Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai has fallen behind in Shanxi and Xinjiang. Thus, these form a new regional economic phenomenon of the western development-a small Northwest region (Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai) seriously lag in economic development.Regional differences in monetary policy effects have an impact on the regional economic development. As the economic and financial development, economic and industrial structure of different regions varies, the monetary policy transmission mechanism diverges, a unified monetary policy will inevitably result discrepancies in the regional economic and social development. In the long run, the monetary policy ignoring regional differences will not only aggravate the uneven regional resource allocation, but also exacerbate the uncoordinated regional development. Economic growth, price stability, full employment and balance of payments are the four objectives of monetary policy, so is coordinated regional economic development. In this paper, VAR model and Panal model shows that the regional effects of monetary policy in China differ in the eight major economic regions. Developed regions are relatively more responsive to the monetary impact, while less developed regions are less responsive; the currency impact on developed regions are greater than that on less developed regions.Monetary policy effects under different economic cycles are compared in this paper to show that expansionary monetary policy will increase the regional economic development gaps, while tightening monetary policy would reduce regional economic disparities. In economic recession, the economic recovery cycle of less developed regions will be longer than that of developed regions if expansionary monetary policy is applied. In economic overheating, tightening monetary policy will be more effective in developed regions than in less developed regions. In the respect of the space of economic development, China’s monetary policy is implemented without exceptions, which lacks flexibility, and exacerbates the imbalance in regional economic development to a certain extent.The case studies of Sub-northwest region demonstrate the effects of monetary policy regulation on industry of the three provinces in Sub-northwest region diverge. They have less impact on fixed assets investment; limited impact on real estate investment but significant impact on real estate demand; no significant effect on the economic structure but great impact on deposit and loan structure. In coping with the international financial crisis, the economic recovery of Sub-northwest region is more volatile than that of the coastal developed areas.Based on that monetary policy effect disparities in different regions, this paper puts forward proposals on how to rich the content of distinct control strategy, strengthen the coordination between fiscal policy and monetary policy, develop a sound financial system in Sub-northwest region, accelerate marketization in Sub-northwest region and enhance the economic viability of Sub-northwest region, so as to speed up economic development in Sub-northwest region.更多还原