黑河流域人口承载力预测分析研究

【作者】 赵玲；

【导师】 高新才；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 区域经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 黑河流域是我国西北地区第二大内陆河流域,是西部地区重要的商品粮、蔬菜和制种基地,流域战略地位十分重要。近年来,由于人类活动的频繁,流域内生态退化,水资源锐减。且由于长期以来忽视了黑河流域内的人口与资源关系的研究,单纯追求经济的发展,使流域生产力下降,资源环境恶化,生产成本增加,经济走入困境。由于区域人口承载问题是流域可持续发展的关键问题之一,因此本文选择黑河流域人口承载力预测分析作为本文的主要研究内容。论文首先回顾了人口承载力理论研究的发展过程,在此基础上建立包括系统分析、系统动力学建模、预测结果及评价和建立预警指标四部分的复合模型,并将其应用与黑河流域所在的十个县(区、旗)。在第五章中,本文将黑河流域看作一个复合巨系统,在综合考虑巨系统中有关经济、社会、资源、生态环境等重要因素的基础上,建立黑河流域人口承载力的复合模型。通过对黑河流域复合系统进行系统分析,根据实际情况,将复合系统分解为土地资源、水资源、经济、人口和生态环境五个子系统。之后分析各个子系统及与其他子系统的因果关系,并分别进行模型的构建、绘制模拟结构图。然后,将初始值输入所建模型中并上机运行,得到黑河流域人口承载力的具体模拟数据。经过对仿真结果的检验,证明模拟数据能客观反映各区域的实际情况后,建立黑河流域人口承载力预警指标体系,分析影响黑河流域人口承载力的主要因素。对仿真模拟结果的分析表明,黑河流域人口总体处于超载状况,流域内承载力状况不佳的原因主要在于不发达区域的发展模式与协调发展的要求还有一定距离,根据对黑河流域未来五十年人口承载力的预测发现,流域内的承载状况将不断提高但人口的增长仍将导致流域内人口出现超载现象。人口承载力直接影响到一个区域的社会经济发展的协调性,论文对黑河流域如何才能协调提出了政策建议,最后论文对人口承载力进一步研究作出展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 Heihe River Basin is the second inland river basin in Northwest China. There is an important commodity grain, vegetable and seed production base in the western region, and there is very important strategic position. In recent years, due to frequent human activities, ecology in the Heihe River Basin has degradation and water resources dropped. Because the study for the relationships whit the population and resource has long been ignored, and people pursuit to economic development, the productivity declined, resources environmental degradated, production costs increased, economy tend to difficulties. As the the number of population carried in the area were one of the key issues of sustainable development, this paper select the prediction of population carrying capacity in Heihe River Basin as the main contents of this article.First, paper reviews the development of theoretical studies in Poplulation Carrying Capacity. Sencend, paper modeled included the four parts system analysis, system dynamics modeling, prediction and evaluation, and establishment of early warning indicators. And the model was applied in the Heihe River Basin. In the fifth chapter, Heihe River Basin will as a complex giant system, anaysising in the huge system of economic, social, resources environment, ecological environment, the papet modeled the Heihe River Basin population carrying capacity of the composite model.Through Complex systems has been systematic analysis of the Heihe River Basin, the complex system is decomposed into land and water resources, economic resources, population, resources and ecological environment of five subsystems. After analyzing each subsystem and the causal relationship with the other subsystems, paper constructed of the model, drawed respectively flow chart. Then enter in the model and the initial value of the machine running, get the specific capacity of the Heihe River Basin population of simulation data. After inspection of the simulation results, the simulated value can objectively reflect the actual situation. Then the establishment of the warning index system of the Heihe River Basin of the population carrying capacity analysised the main affectment factors for the development in Heihe River Basin.The results of the simulation show the overall population of the Heihe River Basin. The reason of the poor capacity was largely due to poor development of the region developed the coordination and development requirements of a certain distance Population carrying capacity directly affects the socio-economic development of a regional coordination. Population carrying capacity directly affects the socio-economic development of a regional coordination. Finally, the paper prospect the further study of population carrying capacity.更多还原