【作者】 张兰；

【导师】 张彩虹；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 林业经济管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 上个世纪九十年代以来,我国经济实现了跨越式发展,经济总量和增长率都保持了较高的水平,年平均经济增长速度保持在8%以上。然而,同期我国能源消费也呈现飞速增长,能源供需形势经历了一个由生产与消费基本平衡的自给自足状态到能源进口的过程。随着我国人口增长和工业化进程的加快,能源危机与环境污染成为制约社会经济可持续化发展的关键问题。在这种形势下,积极开发包括林木生物质能源在内的可再生能源,实现对能源资源的高效化、清洁化利用,促进能源结构从单一性向多元化转变,成为当前解决能源-经济-环境问题的重要举措之一。生物质发电是一种高效的林木生物质能源开发利用方式。近年来,北美和欧洲的一些发达国家在林木生物质发电的原料资源获取途径、电能转化技术和电力市场推广方面已经取得了很大的进步。在我国,丰富的林木生物质能源资源和大量的宜林荒山荒沙地成为发展林木生物质发电产业提供了重要的资源基础。同时,我国发展林木生物质发电产业具有以下优点：(1)资源具有可再生性,耐旱、耐贫瘠；(2)不与粮食生产争地；(3)改善生态环境；(4)提供新的就业机会；(5)带动新农村建设等。目前,一些中小规模的林木生物质发电项目正在兴起,并且得到了我国政府越来越多的重视与相关政策的支持。2007年,我国《可再生能源中长期发展规划》中提出,到2020年农林生物质发电总装机容量达到2400万千瓦的目标,并通过颁布系列优惠政策来促进该产业的发展。林木生物质发电作为一种十分重要和有效的生物质能源利用方式,在我国的发展时机已经日趋成熟。但是,如何合理开发林木生物质能源资源并将其用于生物质发电,在我国还缺乏成功的案例或项目经验。相对滞后的原料供应系统、不成熟的原料要素市场以及不断攀升的原料供应价格严重制约了林木生物质发电在我国的形成与发展。本文从能源发展战略的角度,结合产业发展规律和资源配置的原理,对我国林木生物质发电产业化形成以及原料资源供应问题展开了研究。研究中主要得出的结论如下：(1)我国已经基本上具备了林木生物质发电产业兴起的技术、经济、资源和市场等基础条件,其产业化的形成与发展过程表现为零星生产、项目推广和产业化发展三个阶段。(2)我国森林资源总量丰富,在满足森林系统基本功能的同时,仍有大量的林木生物质剩余物产出且堆积在相对集中的林地,成为林木生物质发电的主要原料来源,这部分原料资源现阶段以灌木平茬剩余物、商品林采伐剩余物和薪炭林采伐物为主,专门能源林被列入未来原料供应的重要方向,通过估算我国各省区的原料资源量,得出我国林木生物质发电原料资源地区分布差异较大。(3)原料供应系统的构建包括原料生产技术路线和供应模式的合理设计及组合,文中根据对削片地点的选择提出了“林地削片”、“收购点削片”和“电厂削片”三种生产技术路线；并根据原料收购方式和组织者的不同,提出了“直接收购”、“设置收购点”和“能源林直供”三种基本的原料供应模式。(4)关于原料供应经济性分析,文中采取工程经济估计法,从原料资源的生产和成本方面着手,选取“边际成本”为核心要素,构建原料供应成本模型,进而讨论了供应规模和成本的关系；另外,对成本项的分解反映了技术水平、原料类型或来源以及地理交通等因素引起的原料供应经济性的差异。(5)针对(3)和(4)中形成的原料供应系统及经济性研究理论,文中选定内蒙古奈曼旗和阿尔山两个地区的林木生物质发电项目案例的原料供应问题进行了实证研究和比较分析。(6)林木生物质发电的项目经济性研究表明,林木生物质发电项目的整体经济性较差,发电成本远远高于传统火力发电的经济成本,产业初期国家政策的大力扶持成为该类项目获得经济收益并且得以持续经营的必要条件。(7)我国林木生物质发电产业布局和优先区域的选择以地区原料资源条件、劳动力、地理交通和市场需求等作为区位因子,对以上各项指标进行综合评价和排序,并将我国各省区划分为四个等级,其中内蒙古、四川和云南省区被列入Ⅰ级优先区域,成为开展林木生物质发电项目的优先考虑区域。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since 1990s, economic development of China has made great progress covering a relatively high GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and growth rate with an average economic growth rate of over 8% per year. However, energy consumption was also increasing rapidly during the corresponding time, coupled with energy supply state from the balanced to relying on import and serious environmental pollution, as well as the population growth aggravating the status. All above has hindered the social-economic development in China. Under the current status, renewable energy with low emisions, including forest biomass energy will play an important role in the energy structure transforming from a single set to the diversity.Bioenergy power generation is a high-efficiency way of forest biomass utilization. As far as the wood biomass supply logistics, power conversion technology and electricity marketing, it has made a lot of achievements in some developed countries of North America and Europe. There are many advantages of developing forest bioenergy power in China as follows:(1) the biomass fuel is renewable and from the plantation species of drought and barren tolerance; (2) it will not complicate with agriculture in land using; (3) it can improve the ecological environment; (4) it can offer employment opportunities; and (5) it can bring along the development of the poor countriside etc. As well, China is abundant in forest biomass energy resource and suitable land for energy plantation, which is the most important resource base for the developing forest biomass power generation. Progress is being made with the establishment of several small-scale projects under the relevant policy support and China’s central government predicts its power-generating capacity using agricultural and forest bioenergy will be some 24 GW by 2020.The relevant study has shown that now it is the time to develop the forest power generation in China. However, there are few successful cases or project experience in China on forest biomass using for power generation. The industrialization and development of the forest biomass power has been restricted largely because of behindhand feedstock, immatural forest fuel market and high cost of forest biomass supply. The study is carried out on the form of the forest biomass power generation and its feedstock which is based on the whole energy strategy of China and principal theories on industy development and resource allocation.The main conclusions of the study are involved as follows:(1) The required conditions of the forest biomass power generation has been satisfied basically in China, including the technology, economic, resource and market conditions. And the development process will experience three periods such as small-scale phase, project-promotion phase and industrial development phase. (2) China is abundant in forest resource gross and after it plays the forest necessary function there are still a lot of wood residues left in forest land, which will be the main raw material source of the forest biomass power generation. The resource consists of brances of shrub coppicing, logging residuces of commercial forest and fuelwood forest, as well as the special energy forest plantation in the future. Distribution of the forest biomass resource for bioenergy varies greatly in different places of China, which is proved by the estimation results from all provinces. (3) Raw material supply system is constructed in the study including the production line and supply logistics, which brings forward three production lines according the chipping location, such as’forest chipping’,’ ollection site chipping’ nd’power plant chipping’, as well, three supply models’direct purchase’,’collection site set’ ard’energy plantation’are also coming based on the acquisition mode and the orgazation. (4) Economic analysis of the forest biomass supply for power generation are carried out by the’engineering economic approach’. Marginal cost is as the key element and the cost mode of raw material supply is constructed in this part, which indicates the relationship between the supply scale and the cost. And the cost structure also shows the varieties of equipments applied, wood fuel types and geography and transportation conditions. (5) And based on the theoratical conclusions derived in above (3) and (4), two-case study is carried out in Naimanqi and Arxan of Inner mongolia, China. (6) Economic feasibility of forest biomass power generation project indicates that the overall economic of the project is in a low level and that the forest biomass power cost is than that from fossil fuel. So the government support will be very necessary in early stage. And (7) analysis on industrial distribution and prioritization areas selection is based on distribution of forest resource available for bioenegy power generation, as well as local labor, transportation and electricity demand factors, and the evaluation results elicit that there are four classes of areas in China and Inner mongolia, Sichuan and Yunan province are list into the first class as optimun areas for forest biomass power generation.更多还原