【作者】 樊华；

【导师】 孙保平； 王治国；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 水土保持与荒漠化防治， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 陕北煤炭、石油、天然气和岩盐资源丰富,具有发展能源化工产业的良好资源条件,但陕北地处中国黄土高原中部,多属于长城沿线风沙滩区和黄土丘陵沟壑区,生态环境比较脆弱。在这样一个生态脆弱地区发展能源化工产业,对生态环境带来巨大压力。目前基地大规模开发,已造成局部生态环境恶化,成为陕北实现可持续发展的主要制约因素。因此,解决好基地的生态环境问题对保证陕北可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。本文主要运用生态足迹方法,从生态足迹、生态承载力和生态赤字等方面,对陕北1997～2006年的生态环境可持续发展变化进行定量评估,并运用灰色系统模型对陕北2010～2020年的生态环境供需情况进行预测。基于以上基础运用万元GDP生态足迹模型、万元GDP生态赤字模型、生态足迹多样性及生态经济系统发展能力模型和主成份分析法对陕北的生态环境可持续发展能力,以及生态足迹社会经济驱动力因子进行了分析。特别针对陕北水资源匮乏这一发展制约因素,建立了水资源生态足迹模型,对陕北1997-2006年水资源生态足迹的动态变化进行了分析评价。以上分析结果揭示了陕北已有社会生产经济活动对生态环境的影响程度,以及当前生态环境供需情况和将来发展趋势。在此基础上提出减小生态足迹、提高生态环境承载力的途径和对策,构建相应的可持续发展框架和保障体系。以下是本文的基本结论：1.1997～2006年陕北生态足迹总量呈逐年递增趋势,从1997年的765.9万hm2,到2006年1735.31万hm2,增长了2.27倍。从生态足迹的组成结构来看,10年间生态足迹总量中化石能源用地所占比例最大,为80.2%,这说明对能源消耗的控制是减少生态足迹的关键。2.1997～2006年陕北生态承载力的波动较大,10年间最低点为329.98万hm2,最高点为431.31万hm2。这说明生态承载力不稳定,受环境波动影响较大。陕北的生态承载力主要由耕地、林地和草地构成,10年总值占到总生态承载力的93.22%。但是这三项的生产力均低于世界的平均水平,其主要原因是陕北恶劣的自然条件和矿产资源的开发对生态环境的破坏,所以农业生产力的提高和生态环境的保护与改善是保障陕北可持续发展的根本出路。3.1997～2006年陕北一直处于生态赤字状态,从1997年的765.90万hm2增长到2006年的1735.31万hm2,增长了近2.3倍。这说明,陕北作为能源化工基地在能源与矿产的开采利用中,对生态环境的压力是巨大的,目前本地区的发展是不可持续的。通过不同地类生态赤字对比,发现通过单一的提高生物能源生产性土地面积来消减生态赤字是不可行的,生态赤字需要从更大区域尺度和生态补偿等方面进行消减。4.利用灰色系统理论预测模型,预测陕北2020年人均生态足迹将达到7.774hm2／人,人均可利用生态承载力为0.670 hm2／人,生态赤字将达到7.104hm2,陕北地区生态环境压力随着经济的发展将越来越大。5.陕北万元GDP生态足迹、万元GDP生态赤字自1999年来开始呈下降趋势,表明陕北的资源利用效率向呈上升趋势,说明工业经济的发展能较大地提高资源的利用效率。6.陕北生态足迹多样性指数1997～2006年整体呈下降趋势,平均每年下降0.031。期间Ulanowicz发展能力指数从整体保持上升势头,平均每年上升0.049。这说明陕北生态经济系统发展能力的提高主要依靠生态足迹需求的增长来实现。在生态承载力有限的前提下一味依靠提高生态足迹来满足经济的发展是不稳定的,必将导致生态赤字进一步加大,生态系统将严重受损。7.通过主成分分析和多元逐步回归方法对陕北区生态足迹的影响因子进行分析,发现影响陕北生态足迹的主要因素为非农业人口比重和第三产业占GDP比重。这说明由于非农业人口数量的不断增加,使得人们的消费需求和消费方式发生较大的变化,拉动了第三产业的发展,带动了整个区域系统经济的发展,从而增加了区域对自然资源的生态需求,因此占用了更多的资源与能源。8.本文借鉴生态足迹方法,对陕北地区水资源的生态足迹进行核算,从1997～2006年,人均水资源生态赤字量由1997年的9.42×10-4hm2／人增加到2006年的22.01×10-4hm2／人,10年间人均生态赤字量增加2倍多。这对于该区域的可持续发展造成极大的威胁,所以有限的水资源得到合理有效利用成为陕北地区可持续发展的当务之急。9.基于上述分析,提出了陕北生态环境可持续发展的对策,主要包括：生态环境保护体系的建设、农业生产力的提高、循环经济的建设、生态环境综合整治与恢复、水资源可持续利用和可持续发展保障体系的建设。更多还原

【Abstract】 The recourses of coal, oil, natural gas and halite are abounded in the north of Shaanxi Province which has a nice condition for developing energy and chemical industry. However the ecological environment is fragile because of locating in the middle of the loess plateau and most of the area included sand beach, upland and ravine. Developing energy and chemical industry in such a ecologically fragile area brings great pressure to the local environment. The large scale mining has resulted in deterioration of the local ecological environment, becoming a major problem of the sustainable development in this area. Therefore, solve the environmental problems is the key point in ensuring sustainable development of north of Shaanxi Province.In this paper, using the ecological footprint method, the sustainable development of North of Shaanxi Province energy and chemical base was studied to show the influence degree from the social and the production activities to the environment as well as the carrying capacity of environment. Based on the above, this paper analysesed the ecology and environmental sustainability in the north of Shaanxi Province. Specifically for the development of water scarcity in Northern constraints, this paper establishes ecological footprint model of water resources, and carries out the analysis and evaluation of the dynamic changes of ecological footprint in the north of Shaanxi Province from 1997 to 2006. The analysis above has revealed the social production of economic activity in the north of Shaanxi Province ecological environment, and how the current environment and future supply and demand trends. On this basis, decreasing the ecological footprint, improving ecological carrying capacity, building the appropriate framework be raised.The following are the basic conclusions of this article:1. During 1997 to 2006, the total ecological footprint in the north of Shaanxi Province increased from 7,659,000 hm2 in 1997 to 17,353,100 hm2 in 2006, which increased 227%. We can find that from the composition of ecological footprint, fossil energy made the largest proportion of the total ecological footprint in the 10 years. This shows that the key of the control of energy consumption is to reduce the ecological footprint.2. From 1997 to 2006, the ecological carrying capacity of the north of Shaanxi Province changed a lot,10-year low point is 3.2998 million hm2, the highest point is 4,313,100 hm2. That means the ecological carrying capacity is instability, influenced by environmental fluctuations. In this area, ecological capacity primarily comes from farmland, woodland and grassland composition. The total value accounted for 93.22% of ecological carrying capacity in 10 years. But the figure of this three items are lower than the world average, Mainly due to harsh natural conditions in Northern and mineral resource development on the ecological destruction of the environment, therefore, the improvement of agricultural productivity and protection of ecological environment protection is the only way to protect and improve the sustainable development in the north of Shaanxi Province.3. From 1997 to 2006, this area has been in a state of ecological deficit, From 7.659 million hm2 in 1997 increased to 17,353,100 hm2 in 2006, an increase of nearly 2.3 times. This shows as the energy and chemical base the energy and mineral resources exploitation and utilization of the ecological environment is enormous pressure. At present the region’s development is not sustainable. By comparing ecological deficit of different land types, We find to increase by a single land area of bio-energy production to reduce the ecological deficit is not feasible. Ecological deficit need more regional scale and reduction in areas such as ecological compensation.4. Using Grey Prediction Model, we can predict per capita ecological footprint in 2020 in the north of Shaanxi Province will reach 7.774 hm2/person, the ecological carrying capacity reach 0.670 hm2/ person, Ecological deficit will reach 7.104 hm2, With the economic development pressure on the ecological environment will increase.5. Million GDP ecological footprint, a Million GDP ecological deficit started a downward trend in 1999 in the north of Shaanxi Province. Show that the energy and chemical base in this area resource efficiency to be risen. It also show economic development of our industry can greatly improve the efficiency of resource use.6. Ecological footprint diversity index in the north of Shaanxi Province have overall downward trend from 1997 to 2006, average annual rate is 0.031. during this time Ulanowicz development capacity index has a overall upward trend, with an average annual rate of 0.049. This showed that the economic development in this area relied mainly on the growth of ecological footprint. Relying on to improve ecological footprint to meet the economic development is unstable In the context of limited ecological capacity.That will lead to further increase the ecological deficit and the seriously damaged of the ecological system.7.Using the principal component analysis and multiple regression methods to analyze the impact factor of ecological footprint in the north of Shaanxi Province, found main factors affect the ecological footprint are non-agricultural population and the proportion of GDP, the proportion of tertiary industry. This shows that the number of non-agricultural population as growing consumer demand and makes change in consumption patterns, Stimulating the development of tertiary industry, led the economic development of the entire regional system, thereby increasing the region’s ecological needs of natural resources, it takes up more resources and energy.8.This paper using ecological footprint method,analysis of the ecological footprint of water resources in the north of Shaanxi Province. From 1997 to 2006, per capita ecological deficit of water resources increased from 9.42x10-4hm2/person in 1997 to 22.01×10-4hm2/person in 2006, per capita ecological deficit increased 2 times in 10 years.That caused great threat to sustainable development. Therefore, the limited water resources has to be rationally and effectively used for sustainable development in this area.9. Based on the above analysis,this paper laid out Strategy for sustainable development of ecological environment in the north of Shaanxi Province, including:ecological and environmental protection system, construction, improving agricultural productivity, the construction of sustainable economy and comprehensive ecological treatment and recovery, sustainable use of water resources and development of sustainable society.更多还原