【作者】 安康；

【导师】 韩兆洲；

【作者基本信息】 暨南大学 ， 统计学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 随着改革开放的深入和WTO的发展,我国各省域的经济均呈现快速增长态势,然而伴随着经济高速增长的是发展的不协调。经济的不协调发展关系到各省经济利益和未来发展战略,更关系到国计民生,经济协调互动发展的重要性已使其成为中国宏观经济管理最受关注的热点问题之一。目前研究我国区域经济协调互动发展问题的成果虽然众多,但由于各成果采用的方法和时间范围存在差异,得出的结论往往差别甚大,众说纷纭,难以一致。本文试图在一个比较清晰统一的逻辑框架指引下,有针对性地对区域经济协调互动发展问题进行研究,以期得出有用的结论。在内容维上,本文的研究可以细分为两大主题——经济协调互动发展和经济增长。本文将以省域作为分析单元,以1988—2007年作为分析时间阶段,对以上两大主题进行系统研究。本文试图在研究中回答三个问题：目前中国省域经济发展的现状协调吗?中国经济在可以预测的未来是行将收敛还是可能发散?我国省域经济在协调发展中的影响要素主要包括哪些?在方法维上,本文既延续了传统分析经济协调发展的检验方法,又在方法库维度有所扩展。沿着方法的使用随着假设放松而展开的逻辑思路,本文首先通过第三章和第四章基本的统计指标测度法和传统的经济收敛计量检验法对主题进行分析；第五章主要针对传统经济收敛检验方法的天然“缺陷”(方法针对截面数据),用核密度函数研究了区域经济的增长分布过程；第六章放松了对区域经济系统线性的假设,应用非线性R／S分析方法对反映区域经济离散程度的相关指标进行了研究；第七章放松了区域经济无空间相互影响的假设,应用空间统计学和空间面板计量经济学方法对省域经济的空间聚集特征和经济发展的影响因素进行了分析,得出了一些具有积极意义的结论；第八章从应用角度出发,选取了状态指标和过程指标设计了一个评价体系。通过以上方法的系统研究,本文尝试着回答了以上三个问题：首先,就现状而言,目前我国省域经济不仅不存在趋同趋势,而且还有着趋异的表现,这在本文多个章节中给予了支持。第三章通过绝对指标、相对指标以及基尼系数证明近几年区域经济表现出了趋异的态势；第四章通过对区域经济收敛性的几大典型检验,支撑了区域经济趋异的态势；第五章通过核密度函数为区域经济逐渐呈现双峰分布的态势提供依据。其次,就未来状态而言,在我们可以预测的年份,这种趋异趋势可能还将持续。本文第四章、第五章和第六章均提供了实证证据。第四章通过区域经济收敛性的几大典型检验,预测了区域经济趋异的态势；第五章通过马尔科夫链展望了我国省域经济增长分布演进未来的趋异态势；第六章通过对反映区域经济离散程度的相关指标的R／S分析,预测了未来二十年变异度指标将具有与目前类似的趋异态势。最后,就区域经济影响因素而言,文章主要利用了空间常系数截面回归模型和空间面板数据模型对于我国总体的经济影响因素分时间段进行了详细研究,另外,本文也应用了空间变系数截面回归模型(GWR)对于各省域经济影响因素进行了分析,得出了一些较有意义的结论。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the reforming and opening up goes deep, and especially China’s entry into WTO, the provincial economy of China grows rapidly but not harmoniously. This problem has a vital bearing on provincial economic benefits and future development strategy of all the provinces. Moreover, it is also related to the people’s livelihood. The importance of regional coordinated development has been a topic of most concern in the macroeconomic management.Actually, there have been many research achievements on regional economic coordinated development until now. However, as they are based on different research methods and time, so the results are usually significant different. It is hard to get an overwhelming conclusion. This article based on a clear logical framework will focus on the regional coordinated development, and will get a better result. According to the content dimension, this article is divided into two major themes, which are regional economic coordinated development and economic growth. Taking the province as an analysis unit, and the year 1988-2007 as an analysis time, this article will research on the above themes, and solve three questions:At present, if China’s provincial economic development is harmonious? In the predict future, China’s economy will be convergent or divergent? What are the factors that affect China’s provincial economic coordinated development?On the method dimension, this article follows the traditional methods to analyze economic coordinated development, and also expand it a lot with way base. In chapterⅢand chapterⅣ, the basic static index measure and the traditional measure of economic convergent test are used to analyze the themes. ChapterⅤfocuses on the natural "defects" of the traditional economy convergence test measure (esp. cross section data), and study the distribution of regional economic growth by nuclear density function. The linear assumption of regional economic system is not the focus in ChapterⅥ, this chapter study relevant indicators which reflect the dispersion degree of regional economy by nonlinear R/S analysis method. ChapterⅦgives less importance on the assumptions that there is no spatial interaction between the regional economies; it analyzes the factors that affect the spatial agglomeration characteristics of provincial economy and the economic development by spatial statistics and spatial panel econometrics.After the research, this article answers the above questions as following:Firstly, in the current situation, the evidence shows that China’s provincial economy does not seem to converge, but diverge, which is supported in many places of this article. Chapter III proves out the divergence trend of regional economy in recent years by the absolute index, relative index and the Gini coefficient. ChapterIV support it by several typical convergent test. Chapter V provides evidence by the nuclear density function.Secondly, according to the probe situation in the future, in predict years, this divergent trend is likely to continue. The chapter, Chapters V and VI offer empirical evidence. Chapter IV predicts the trend of regional economic divergence through several typical convergent test; Chapter prospects the trend of the provincial economic growth distribution by Markov chain, With the R/S analysis, chapter VI predicts that the variability indicators in the next two decades will be divergent similar to the current situation.Finally, according to the impact factor, China’s provincial economy is affected mainly by population, the economic capital, human capital and other factors, which is suggested in Chapter VII. After analyzing the impact factors of regional economy by spatial panel econometrics and spatial regression model, Chapter VII draw some meaningful conclusions.更多还原