基于格网GIS的艾比湖流域城市化与生态环境效应评价研究

【作者】 卢斌（王莹）；

【导师】 陈正江；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 人文地理学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 人类社会的城市化过程不仅是一个人口迁移、景观变化、产业集聚的过程,也是城市发展与周边生态环境之间发生相互作用、相互影响的过程。随着区域城市化进程不断加快,城市发展的溢出效应不断加大,对城市及其周边地区的环境影响也向纵深拓展。生态环境的脆弱性不断加强,很多快速城市化地区出现了不同程度的生态风险,在脆弱生态地区,城市化和城市发展已经成为生态环境恶化的主要驱动因素。作为西部干旱区的典型案例地区,艾比湖流域已成为新疆继塔里木河流域之后的第二大生态退化区,该流域生态问题已经影响到天山北坡经济带和亚欧大陆桥新疆段社会经济的可持续发展。本论文在国家“973”项目《中国西部干旱区生态环境演变与调控研究》的基础上,选取位于新疆西部的艾比湖流域为研究区,在对该区域的城市化和生态环境发展现状综合分析的基础上,从人口城市化、经济城市化、空间城市化和社会城市化四个方面构建艾比湖流域城市化水平评价指标体系,并以自然生态环境和人类活动影响生态环境两个方面构建艾比湖流域生态环境评价指标体系,在此基础上应用格网GIS技术对各项指标进行空间格网化表达,然后综合运用主观AHP打分法和客观修正熵权法相结合的赋权方法确定了各项指标的权重,并在GIS的支持下进行地图代数运算,获得艾比湖流域城市化水平与生态环境质量评价的初步结果,最后运用定量分析方法对艾比湖流域城市化和生态环境关系进行了分析评价,并以元胞自动机、BP神经网络和智能体相结合的混合模型对城市化与生态环境进行了预测,得到2015年和2020年的艾比湖流域城市化水平和生态环境质量。在上述综合分析评价的基础上,针对性提出艾比湖流域的城市化和生态环境协调发展多项对策,以期为艾比湖流域的城市化发展和生态环境的持续改善,促进流域的可持续发展提供科学的依据。论文的主要结论如下：(1)艾比湖流域城市化与生态环境相互作用影响强烈,城市化的初期阶段表现为生态环境的持续恶化,随着城市化进程的不断推进,生态环境持续改善；在生态环境的影响因素中,自然背景的生态环境因素高于人类社会经济活动影响的生态因素,但流域人地关系在进一步加大,人类活动对生态环境的影响趋强。(2)应用格网化方法对影响城市化和生态环境的各个因素进行分析研究,从方法上对包括人口数据等统计数据在内的全部数据进行分析研究,拓展了格网化GIS的应用范围,取得了比较理想的效果。(3)通过分析评价艾比湖流域1990年、2000年、2008年三个年份的城市化水平和生态环境质量发现,2000年以后,区域生态环境趋于好转,流域城市化的进程不断加快,城市化水平不断提高,生态环境与城市化的协调呈良性发展。(4)从城市化综合水平和生态环境质量评价结果的空间分布上来看,城市内部和外部或非城市区域存在较大差异,即城市内部的城市化与生态环境协调发展的程度要明显好于非城市区域。(5)建立基于元胞自动机、BP神经网络和智能体相结合的模型,对艾比湖流域的城市化和生态环境的协调发展进行预测分析,结果表明,未来艾比湖流域的城市化综合水平将不断提高,生态环境质量总体将逐步好转,但存在明显的空间分异特征。论文的创新之处如下：(1)尝试运用格网化方法对城市化水平进行了综合评价研究,对传统的以行政单元为最小研究区域的方法进行了更新,从而可有效揭示行政单元内部的城市化综合水平的空间差异,有助于更好地认识和分析区域城市化发展状况。(2)对城市化与生态环境耦合关系实现了格网化分析研究,使得研究的尺度在空间上进一步细化,得到的结果更符合实际,更具操作性。(3)在城市化与生态环境综合评价的格网化结果基础上运用元胞自动机、BP神经网络和智能体相结合的模型进行了预测,比传统的基于行政单元统计数据的分析预测方法精度有所提高,预测的结果比单纯基于元胞自动机的预测模型准确度有所提升。更多还原

【Abstract】 The urbanization of human society consists of the processes of migration, landscape change and industrial agglomeration, but also of the interactions and inter-influences between the surrounding urban development and the ecological environment. With the accelerating progresses of urbanization, spillover effects of urban development continued to increase on the city and its surrounding areas, and even to deeply expand the environmental impact. The vulnerability of the ecological environment constantly increased, and many rapidly urbanizing regions showed different levels of ecological risks. In ecologically vulnerable areas, urbanization and urban development has become a major factor of environmental degradation. As a typical case of the Western Drought areas, the Ebinur Lake basin, following Xinjiang Tarim River Basin, has become the second largest area of ecological degradation. The ecological problem in the Ebinur Lake basin has affected the socio-economic sustainable development of the economic zone of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang and the Eurasian Continental Bridge.The research in this dissertation is supported by the "973" project "Ecological Environmental Evolution and Control in Western China ", selects the Ebinur Lake basin in Xinjiang as the study area. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the urbanization and ecological environment, we constructs the evaluation system of urbanization level of Ebinur Lake basin, with respect to the population urbanization, economic urbanization, urbanization and social space of four aspects of urbanization, and then construct the ecological environment evaluation system with respect to the natural ecological environment and human activities. Based on these evaluation systems we applied the GIS technology to represent the relevant criteria with spatial grids, and combine subjectively AHP scoring and objectively entropy amendment methods to determine the weights of these indicators, and then obtain preliminary results of the level of urbanization and ecological environment quality evaluation. Finally we make quantitative analysis of the relationships of urbanization and ecological environments, and proposed a hybrid approach combining cellular automata, BP neural network and agent technology to predict the levels of urbanization and ecological environments in Ebinur Lake basin, and obtain the level of urbanization of Ebinur Lake basin and the ecological environmental quality in 2015 and 2020. On the basis of the analysis and evaluation above, we specifically forward several sustainable solutions as scientific basis for urbanization and ecological environment in Ebinur Lake basin, with a view to continuous improve the urbanization and ecological environment, in order to promote sustainable development. The main conclusions drawen by this research are as follows:(1) The urbanization and eco-environment strongly interacts, and the early stages of urbanization showed continued deterioration of the ecological environment. With the process with the continued urbanization, the ecological environment improves continuously; among the ecological environment factors, natural factors have higher effects than the human factors on ecological environment, but the relationships between the human the environment becomes stronger, then human activities have more impact on the ecological environment.(2) The paper apply the grid method to analyze the factors of urbanization and ecological environment and the demographic statistics, expand the application of the grid GIS.(3) Through the analysis and evaluation of the level of urbanization and eco-environment quality in1990,2000 and 2008 in Ebinur Lake basin, we find out that, the regional ecological environment was getting better, the process of urbanization accelerates, the level of urbanization improved continuously, and the ecological environment and urban development interacted and developed in phase.(4) From the spatial distribution of the level of urbanization and ecological environment quality evaluation results, there is big difference between the inside and outside of the city or urban areas, namely, urbanization within the city and the degree of coordinated development of ecological environment was significantly better than non-urban areas.(5) The paper proposed a hybrid prediction model combining cellular automata, BP neural network and agent technology to predict the coordinated development of urbanization and ecological environment in Ebinur Lake basin. The results showed that, in the future, the level of urbanization and the ecological environment will gradually improve, but there are significant spatial differentiations.The innovations of this dissertation are as follows:(1) Try to use the grid method to study the urbanization evaluation, compared to the traditional methods with administrative unit as the the base class, thus effectively uncover the spatial difference of the level of urbanization within the administrative unit, to better understand and analyze the development state of regional urbanization.(2) Apply the grid method to analyze the coupling relationship between urbanization and ecological environment, making the scale of further refinement in space, and the result is more realistic and operational.(3) Based on the results of urbanization and ecological environment evaluation, propose a hybrid prediction model combining cellular automata, BP neural network and agent technology to predict the coordinated development of urbanization and ecological environment in Ebinur Lake basin. The experimental results showed that, this method improves the prediction granularity compared to the traditional approach based on statistical data analysis with administrative units as the basis, and with higher accuracy, than simple cellular automata-based forecasting models.更多还原