【作者】 陈冬冬；

【导师】 彭其渊；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 物流工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 要构建和谐社会,建设社会主义新农村,切实解决“三农”问题,农业产业化是关键。农业产业化的实质就在于增强农产品市场竞争力,增加农民收入,实现农业现代化发展。实现农业产业化就需要提高农民收入,就需要提高农业组织化程度,目前农业产业化面临着诸多问题,要解决这些问题并推动产业化发展,迫切需要引入供应链管理。农业生产过程大致分为：产前准备、产中管理、产后加工、商业流通和最终消费等五个大的环节。在农业生产链状结构的各环节和节点中,农业供应链和物流发挥着重要的衔接作用,它深刻地影响着农业生产和流通的状况和水平。通过农业供应链管理的实施,转移农村剩余劳动力,减轻中心城市就业压力,创造新的就业机会和增加农民收入,促进新农村建设和缩小城乡差别。运用供应链理论把各个环节进行无缝化整合,通过利用外部资源,按照市场需求,整合和重组农业供应链流程,提高供应链整体协同能力和供应链竞争优势,可以很好的解决农民、农村和农业问题。纵观全文,本文所做的工作如下：(1)在阐述了选题背景和选题意义后,回顾了国内外研究现状,在对大量相关文献进行总结的基础上,通过对四川省水果供应链走访和问卷相结合的方式,从水果行业的特征、物流现状、物流设施、供应链绩效、供应链合作关系等方面做了调查和分析,提出了本文待研究的几个关键的问题。(见第1章)(2)对农业供应链和物流分别就概念、农业供应链和物流、农业供应链的流程和环节、农业供应链的模式、以及农业供应链管理给出了相应的界定。(见第2章)(3)农业供应链运作对农业发展有着及其重要的影响。而基于农业供应链的农业物流的发展状况,直接影响农业经济的发展。为了深入分析农业物流和农业发展的关系,从相关性的角度,运用灰关联分析了影响农业发展的物流影响因素,并给出排序结果；在此基础上,选择重要的影响因素,利用1978—2006年的统计数据,从因果关系角度,分析了我国物流业与农业产值增长之间的长期关系。结果表明,农业产值增长与物流业之间存在长期的均衡关系；因果检验结果表明,物流基础设施投资与GDP存在单向的因果关系,即固定资产投资是农业发展的Grange原因。物流发展的前提条件是要有良好物流基础设施,物流基础建设投资为农业经济的增长提供了基础条件,这与现实中我国经济发展状况相符合。第三部分介绍了一组物流量预测方法,结合实例对这些预测方法进行了比较和排序,阐述了预测方法的选取问题,说明了供应链需求量预测对于整个供应链的优化和管理具有重要的意义。(见第3章)(4)归纳和阐述了物流外包的基础理论后,深入分析了农业物流外包的优劣势和外包风险,进而阐述导致外包失败的原因,给出了物流战略、供应链战略和企业总体竞争战略之间的逻辑关系,即,物流战略必须和供应链战略、企业竞争战略相一致,并给出物流外包决策的逻辑步骤；进一步研究了在信息非对称条件下的物流外包决策模型,再次论证了不完全信息下物流外包时必定产生决策风险、代理人的逆向选择风险和道德风险等问题。(见第4章)(5)由于农户的分散生产和市场经济的规模化的矛盾,导致农户对供应链参与的信任度不够或过度而遭受损失,利用博弈理论,讨论了农户信任在农业供应链中的作用,研究在直接交易和第三方推荐两种情况下的农户信任值评估模型及其信任值更新模型；利用进化博弈理论,研究了农户和合作企业之间信任关系的演化,给出农业供应链中农户和企业信任类型演化博弈复制动态相图以及相应参数取值。结论是增强农户信任对于提高整个农业供应链的效率有着非常重要的作用,为合理把农户纳入农业供应链整体提供了一定的理论依据。(见第5章)(6)阐述了供应链合作伙伴关系的优势,从成本角度研究了构建供应链合作伙伴关系的动力。利用博弈理论,从成本和合约的角度进行供应链合作分析,建立了动态博弈模型,结果发现,农业供应链中两个企业相互合作,并建立长期伙伴关系,能实现了帕累托最优。通过运用供应链供应商管理和选择理论,研究了供应商选择的指标体系构建标准,并建立了评价指标体系,针对具体企业实例,采用基于信息熵的供应商选择多属性决策方法,研究了供应商选择的方法,证明该方法是有效的。(见第6章)(7)详细研究了供应链绩效评价的特点后,依据指标体系构建的原则,根据平衡计分卡理论从价值、业务流程、未来发展和客户四方面构建了绩效评价的16个指标,运用基于粗糙集和信息熵的农业供应链绩效多属性评价方法和基于粗糙集和支持向量机的绩效预测方法,研究了农业供应链的绩效评价和绩效预测,并以实证分析的方式,证明了评价指标体系和两个评价方法在农业供应链绩效评价和绩效预测方面的有效性。可以用于对农业供应链的绩效评价和预测,以便优化供应链整体绩效,提高效率和改进流程。(见第7章)(8)根据公理化分解设计原理,在详细分析了供应链战略开发的背景,即从供应链战略定位、价值定位、绩效定位以后,给出了供应链战略管理的主要内容,依据公理化分解设计原理,提出了开发农业供应链战略的方法,并给出农业供应链战略分解设计的粗略框架以及具体的4个开发步骤。(见第8章)更多还原

【Abstract】 The industrialization of agriculture is the key issue to build a harmonious society and to build a new socialist countryside, and solve the "three rural" issue effectively. The substance of agricultural industrialization is to enhance the market competitiveness of agricultural products and increase farmers’income, so we can achieve agricultural modernization. We must increase the income of farmers and improve the degree of agricultural organizations to realize the industrialization of agriculture. Now we are facing many problems currently, it is necessary to solve these problems and to promote industrial development, so we need to introduce supply chain urgently.The process of agricultural production can be divided into five major areas: pre-preparation, production management, post-processing, commercial circulation and final consumption. On the links and nodes of the chain of agricultural production structure, the Agricultural products supply chain and logistics play an important role in bridging; it has a profound impact on the situation and level of agricultural production and circulation.Through the implementation of agriculture supply chain management, we can transfer of rural surplus labor force, can reduce the pressure of urban employment, can create new job opportunities and increase farmers’income, can promote the building of new countryside and reduce the divide of urban-rural. The supply chain theory can integrate all seamless in the chain, and through the use of external resources, in accordance with market demand, integrate and restructuring the processes of Agricultural products supply chain, and increase the overall supply chain coordination and supply chain competitive advantage, so we can solute the issues of farmers, rural and agriculture.Taking a panoramic view of the full text, the works done by this article are as follows:ⅰ. After we descript the background and the significance of topics, we reviewed the researches of the domestic and abroad. On the basis of a large number of literatures, we put forward some key issues to research (see Chapter 1).ⅱ. We defined the conception of Agricultural products supply chain and logistics. The processes and the link of agriculture supply chain, the model of Agricultural products supply chain, as well as the Agricultural products supply chain management (see Chapter 2).ⅲ. The Agricultural products supply chain has an important impact on agricultural development. The development status of agricultural logistics based on agriculture supply chain has a direct impact on the agricultural economy. In order to analysis the relationships of the agricultural logistics and agricultural development in-depth, from the perspective of relevance, we analysis the impact of agricultural development of the logistics of factors by gray relation theory, and gives the results of the sort; On this basis, we choose the key factors, from the perspective of cause and effect and use statistical data in 1978 - 2006, analysis the long-term relationship between logistics and the agriculture. The results show that the relationships of agricultural and logistics are stationary; and causality test results show that the logistics infrastructure investment and GDP are one-way causal relationship, that is, investment in fixed assets is the cause of Grange’s agricultural development. Logistics development is a prerequisite for a good logistics infrastructure; logistics infrastructure for agricultural investment in economic growth provides the basis for the conditions, and this reality with our economic development. The third part introduced a group of logistics quantity forecast technique, unified the example to carry on the comparison and sorting to these forecast technique, elaborated forecast technique’s selection question, the results showed that the supply chain demand forecast had the vital significance regarding to the entire supply chain’s optimization and the management. (See Chapter 3)iv. After summarized and explained the basic theory of logistics outsourcing, we expatiated the advantages disadvantages and the risk of outsourcing in-depth for agricultural logistics outsourcing, then expatiate the reason that lead to outsourcing for the failure, and given the logic relationships among the logistics strategy, supply chain strategy and overall business strategy, that is, logistics and supply chain strategy, competitive business strategies must be matched, and given the logic steps of logistics outsourcing decision-making. Further study in the asymmetric information under the conditions of the logistics outsourcing decision-making model, once again demonstrates the incomplete information under the logistics outsourcing decision-making and will definitely have at risk, the agent of the adverse selection risk and moral hazard issues. (See Chapter 4)v. Due to the conflicts of farmers decentralized production and the large-scale market economy that causes farmers to participate in the supply chain of trust and lack of or excessive losses, we discusses the effect of farmers trust in the Agricultural products supply chain, and then research the evaluate model of value of farmer trust and it’s renewal model in the cases of direct transaction and third-party recommended. Then we use the evolutionary game theory to study the trust relationship between the farmers and cooperative enterprises, and given the type of farmers and business confidence in the evolution of game copy dynamic phase diagram and the corresponding parameters. The conclusion is that the enhancement of trust for farmers can improve the efficiency of entire Agricultural products supply chain and the farmer trust is a very important role. We provide a theoretical for how to bring the farmers into the Agricultural products supply chain as a whole. (See Chapter 5)ⅵ. Expounded on the advantages of the relationship between supply chain partners, from a view of cost we studied the momentum of building a supply chain partnership. Using game theory, from the perspective of cost and contract, set up a dynamic game model, the results showed that the two companies cooperate with each other and set up long-term partnership can achieve a Pareto optimum. Through the use of the theory of supply chain management and supplier choice, we study the supplier selection criteria for the Index System and then establish the evaluation index system. Through examples of specific enterprises, we applying the information entropy-based supplier selection multi-attribute decision-making method to study the supplier selection, and proved that the method is effective. (See Chapter 6)ⅶ. For a detailed study on the characteristics of supply chain performance evaluation, in accordance with the theory of the Balanced Scorecard based on the principle of Index System, we built a performance evaluation of 16 indicators in four areas such as value, business process, future development and customers. We used the methods based on rough sets and information entropy for more attributes to evaluate the performance of agricultural products supply chain, and used the methods based on rough sets and SVM for forecasting the performance of agricultural products supply chain, through the demonstration analysis, we proved that the two methods are effective in evaluation and forecasting the performance of agricultural products supply chain. Our study can be used in the agricultural supply chain performance evaluation and prediction in order to optimize the overall supply chain performance, enhance efficiency and improve the flow. (See Chapter 7)ⅷ. According to the decomposition of the design principles of axiomatic design, we analysis the background of the supply chain strategy for developing in detailed, that is, from the strategic positioning of the supply chain, value orientation, performance orientation, given the main content for supply-chain management strategies. Based on the principles of the axiomatic decomposition of design, we proposed the method for development the Agricultural products supply chain strategy, and given a rough framework for the Agricultural products supply chain strategy and 4 specific steps of development. (See Chapter 8)更多还原