【作者】 喇娟娟；

【导师】 蒋葛夫；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 公共工程组织与管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 目前,我国正处于“经济转轨,社会转型”的关键时期,根据世界发展进程的规律在社会发展序列谱上我国当前恰好对应着“非稳定状态”的频发阶段,是人口、资源、环境、效率、公平等社会矛盾瓶颈约束最严重的时期。同时,近几年随着我国各类公共危机事件的不断出现(2003年的SARS、2004年禽流感等)和各类自然灾害的频繁发生(2008年初南方众省的雪灾、2008年汶川地震),严峻的形势使我们看到在我国高速发展的城市化进程中,必须高度重视城市的防灾减灾功能,具备危机管理意识。为有效提高政府对城市公共安全的应急管理能力和救扶效率,最大限度减少各类灾害事故带来的危害和损失,各大城市都急需建立完善的城市公共安全应急管理信息系统运作管理机制。目前我国各地的城市公共安全应急管理信息系统监管体制中只有针对其技术性能的简单评审验收,没有对其运行效果的综合评价,这种情况无可避免的导致各级部门在连续几年的不断投入后,很难明确每个城市公共安全应急管理信息系统到底是否达到了预期效果,使得上级决策部门无法客观准确的了解城市公共安全应急管理信息系统的实施效果,因此难以对下一步发展做出合理的决策。本文根据我国城市应急保障信息系统建设的特点,对当前国外相关系统进行比较研究,结合作者及课题组对我国北京等城市公共安全应急管理信息系统建设的调研所得,建立包含城市公共安全应急管理信息系统的基本评价指标和评价模型的评价体系。该评价体系可实现对城市公共安全应急管理信息系统运行效果的评价,同时根据评价结果有针对性的对系统进行改进并到达不断完善的良性循环效果,最终实现对城市公共安全应急管理信息系统的闭环管理。本文首先对美国等国的相关管理信息系统进行比较研究,分析它们的特征及优缺点,以及这些体系对我国的适用性和有待改进之处。在此基础上结合作者对我国城市公共安全应急管理信息系统实际的调研所得,设计出适用于我国城市公共安全应急系统绩效评价的基本指标,同时对评价指标量化方法进行深入的比较分析,定量指标采用模糊去量纲化,定性指标采用成熟度模型的方法。以确保评价体系的科学性和可操作性。接着,本文在评价模型的构建上结合层次分析法和欧式距离法,设计出了城市公共安全应急管理信息系统绩效的综合评价模型。具体,首先采用层次分析法确定二三级指标的权重,根据专家打分量化结果完成加权汇总。一级指标的合成算法则是将所设的最优点与当前成绩点进行比较而得出。这样就可以清晰地得知本系统当前所处的状态与最优状态之间的差距,从而明确自身的发展方向和空间,从而实现对绩效水平的全面考虑。最后,本文构建了具有反馈机制的城市公共安全应急管理信息系统绩效评价体系。作者根据评价模型所得出的结果对影响系统绩效所存在的问题进行识别与排序,以便在资源有限和时间紧迫的情况可以找出优先整改的地方。这样就可使每个具体城市公共安全应急管理信息系统绩效评价的结果可以成为系统改进工作和更好运行的依据,最终实现城市公共安全应急管理信息系统建设工作的闭环管理。更多还原

【Abstract】 Presently,our country is at a crucial period of economic transition and social transformation, on the moment, China’s exactly correspond to a frequent stage of "Non-steady state" in the social development sequence of spectrum which is the most serious period of bottleneck effect caused by population, resources, environment, efficiency, equity and other social contradictions according to the low of the world development process. Furthermore, the emergence of various types of public crisis (SARS,2003;Bird flu,2004) and natural disasters(Snowstorm in many province of south China,2007; When Chuan earthquake,2008) in China recent years make us aware that we must not only attach great importance to the city’s disaster prevention and reduction function but also have the sense of crisis management during the rapid development of urbanization in our country.In order to effectively enhance the Emergency Management ability and efficiency which the government used to protect the city public safety, and minimize the harm and loss caused by various types of disasters and accidents, major cities are urgently needed to establish a results-oriented and constantly improved operation and the management mechanism of city emergency management system. At the present time, there’s no continuous evaluation of effectiveness of operations but one-time acceptance assessment to be aimed at system performance in monitoring system of city emergency security system all over our country. This situation induce governments difficult to clarify whether the city emergency systems achieved the desired results, and then make high-level planning departments couldn’t understanding the status quo of the development of the city emergency security systems clearly and accurately, in that case, hard to make reasonable decision-makings for the next step of the development.This paper is in connection with the distinguishing feature of Chinese city emergency system construction, try to establish a suite of performance evaluation mechanism for city emergency security system includes basic indicators and appraisal models which could make targeted-improvement on city emergency security system based on it’s actual operation results,, in order to achieve closed-loop management for city emergency security system.At first, this paper take a comparative study on several existing relative-mature performance evaluation mechanism for city emergency security system and management information system, analyze it’s applicability and limitations for China’s national conditions and common features of performance evaluation mechanism for management information system reflected through these systems. On this basis, combine with the author’s research from China’s Public Safety Emergency Management Information System, I designed basic indicators that applicable to the system-performance evaluation for public safety system of our country, and take an in-depth study on the quantitative methods of these basic indicators, in thus built a indicators quantitative method based on fuzzy-dimensionless and maturity model, designed detailed acquisition and quantitative methods for all indicators, as a result, I have established a actual operational quantitative rating system, and so that laid a foundation for ensure the objectivity and practicality of the whole system.To proceed, this paper established a comprehensive evaluation modal of city emergency security system which based on AHP and cluster analysis. In particular, it use AHP to determine weight, make the weighted grade summary from the three indicators to the level indicators, then draw on the thinking of the cluster analysis, take the synthesis algorithm which use the Euclidean distance between the actual performance-point and the optimal performance-point as level indicator. Because one of the main purpose of performance evaluation is to make clear its current status of the unit be estimated and to determine the gap between it and the best state, thereby clair the direction and space of its own development. For this demand, the paper established a performance evaluation space which use the point in it as the optimal performance-point and current performance-point of the system to clear out the gap between them so that to carry out the full account of the performance level.Lastly, on the basis of the confirm of basic indicators and evaluation, in order that public safety emergency management information system of every single city use the results of performance evaluation as the basis of maintenance and improvement in system operation and management, analyze the actual results of system to find out the main problems. This paper research in applications of performance evaluation in system operation and management, established an identity and sorting algorithm for main problem which impact the performance based on the evaluation results, and use the indentify problems to provide two kinds of management advice method which called norms and case-for relevant departments. Finally achieved the closed-loop management for the phases of construction and operation management.更多还原