【作者】 王鹏；

【导师】 孙巍；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 数量经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 自2002年我国土地供给制度实施市场化改革以来,尽管其一方面极大地控制了土地供应量、优化了土地资源的配置,但另一方面也导致了土地价格的急剧上升,与此同时,房地产价格也在快速上涨。于是,关于“招拍挂”的土地供给制度是否导致房地产价格的快速上涨成了社会各界关注的焦点和热点问题。因此,弄清土地价格对房地产价格的作用机制及二者之间的关联性,不仅有助于分析和评价现有调控政策的有效性和合理性、正确判断房地产价格快速上涨的真实原因,同时也能为进一步制订房地产市场的宏观调控政策、保证房地产市场健康平稳运行提供重要的借鉴意义。而本文的研究也正着眼于此。于是,本文首先以我国各地区房地产市场发展的不平衡性为基本出发点,在对各地区房地产市场进行聚类分析的基础上,应用面板数据的单位根检验和协整理论来实证研究不同地区土地价格对房地产价格的长期作用关系和短期波动效应,旨在揭示土地价格对房地产价格影响的区域性差异；其次,在理论上探析土地价格与房地产价格之间的传导机制后,运用基于误差修正模型的长短期Granger因果关系检验来定量揭示我国土地制度转轨以来土地价格和房地产价格之间的传导效应：再次,针对我国土地市场化改革以来房地产价格和土地价格的变化及波动特征,在对房地产价格和土地价格进行结构突变检验并对房地产市场和土地市场的发展进行阶段性划分的基础上,应用变结构的协整分析来进一步揭示我国土地价格对房地产价格影响的动态性和阶段性特征；最后,针对现阶段我国土地价格对房地产价格影响的区域性、因果性和阶段性特征,运用面板数据模型分阶段系统地对土地价格的形成机理及其演变特征进行实证研究,以期更好地阐释土地价格对房地产价格的作用机制。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the marketilization reform of China’s real estate of 1998, the real estate market has got rapidly developed, and the industry of real estate has also made important contribution to pull China’s economic growth and improve the urban residents’life quality, becoming the pillar industry of national economy. However, the problem of over-investment, the single financing channel and structural imbalance of supply & demand, especially the rapidly increasing housing price, has seriously threaten the stable development of China’s real estate market following with the flourish of real estate industry. Therefore, the authority has issued a series of macro-control policy to stabilize the housing price, but little effect. At the same time, the rapidly increasing housing price has also made the land demand increasing, but under the land supply system of administrative allocation and assignment agreement, the lack of scientific land regulatory system and rational market competition mechanism has made the bad behavior widespread such as black-box operation of land transaction and rent-seeking behavior of some local government officials, and the opaque land transaction process and the irregular market order have directly led to the loss and waste of land resource, the allocation and utilization efficiency of land resource was extremely low. Thus, the Ministry of Land and Resources and the Ministry of Supervision & the Ministry of Land and Resources issued the "11th Order" and "71st Order" one after the other, the aim is to make the land supply system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" replace the traditional system of administrative allocation and assignment agreement, which indicated that China comprehensively carried out the marketilization reform of land supply system. But, the direct consequence of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" was that the land price increased sharply. So, the people had to think about whether the increasing land price led to the increasing the housing price when they thought over the reason of rapidly increasing housing price. Even doubted that whether the system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" led to the increasing the housing price. So, the problem of the relationship between land and housing price had become the focus. Therefore, the research on the relevance of land price and housing price and the effect mechanism of land price on housing price not only to contribute to identify the true reason of rapidly increasing land price and housing price, but also to contribute to evaluate the effectiveness and rationality of current policy, moreover, it also can provide some references to perfect and set up macro-control policy of real estate market as well as guarantee the stable development of real estate market.But, we can easily discover that the debate focus of land price and housing price is whether the increasing land price led to the increasing housing price or whether the increasing housing price led to the increasing land price by comparative analysis, lack of rationality. This paper deems that the foundation of the relationship between land price and housing price is to identify the land price is whether exceed its true price level firstly, only in this way, we can exactly reveal the internal mechanism of the increasing land price and the increasing housing price. Secondly, due to the difference of economic development level and real estate market development degree, for different regions, there should be a significant difference in the characteristic of supply and demand of land market and real estate market, so we must fully think of the regional difference. Thirdly, the development of real estate market need experience a developing process, then, studying the relationship between land price and the housing price should be in accordance with the special developing stage, the special land supply policy and the difference of development status of real estate. In view of this, this paper will make a further study.Specifically, this paper makes a cluster analysis of China’s regions according to the developing degree of real estate market firstly. On this basis, we use the annual data of housing price and land price from 2002 to 2008, apply panel cointegration and panel vector error correction model to study the long-term equilibrium mechanism and short-term fluctuation characteristic of the land price on housing price in different regions, reveal regional difference of the effect mechanism of the land price on housing price deeply. The empirical study result shows that in the regions of high economic development level and real estate developing degree, there was no influence of land price on housing price whether long-term or short-term; in the regions of under-developed economic development level and real estate developing degree, the land price boost the housing price significantly no matter in long-term or in short-term, and the effect degree decreased with the increasing economic development level and real estate developing degree. The conclusion indicates that the effect degree of land price on housing price will decrease following with the increasing of economic development level and urban residents’ income level, the increasing of the real estate developers’profit and the increasing of the demand of investment and speculation. So, the related departments and local government should fully consider the principle of the actions that suit local circumstance in drawing up land policy and legislation.Secondly, after the theoretical analysis of the transmission mechanism between the land price and housing price, this paper uses the seasonal data of land price and housing price from 2002 to 2008, applies cointegration analysis, vector error correction model and Granger causality test based on vector error correction model to reveal the interaction mechanism and transmission effect of land price and housing price in both long-term and short-term since the transition of land system. The result shows that there existed interaction causality between land price and housing price in short-term, but in the long-term, there was only single causality of land price to housing price. This conclusion indicates that in the short-term, on the one hand, duo to the relatively stable cost and the consumer purchasing power cannot be expanded rapidly in short-term, so, the increasing land price will lead to the increasing cost of real estate, then the real estate developer will pass on it to the consumers by housing price to compensate the increasing cost; on the other hand, due to lack of supply elasticity, the increasing housing price will lead to the increasing land demand and further exacerbate the land price increased. In the long-term, the increasing land price should be the return of its true price by the introduction of competition mechanism in the system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing", but not the reason of the increasing housing price, it is only experiencing a return process of true price.Thirdly, in accordance with the different development stages of real estate market and land market, this paper uses the structural change theory divide the stages of real estate market and land market firstly, then on this basis, applies cointegration analysis based on structural change to study the effect mechanism of land price on housing price for current China deeply, the aim is to reveal the dynamic and stage effect characteristic of land price on housing price. The empirical study result shows that at the early stage of land supply system marketilization reform, the land supply system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" brought a certain impact to housing price, and the impact degree become stronger and stronger following with the depth of transition of land system and the return of the land’s true price step by step. But, with the rapid increase in the level of economic development recently, especially the increase of urban residents’ income level and the increase of the demand of investment and speculation had extremely pulled the housing price increasing rapidly, so it reduced the effect of land price on housing price.According to the conclusion above, the increase of land price led by the system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" was only the return process of the land’s true price, so studying the formation mechanism of land price and its evolution characteristic since land system transition can not only reveal the regional, causal and stage characteristic of the effect of land price on housing price, but also provide some certain real references for perfecting land price mechanism, promoting land resource rational allocation and fully playing the role of price leverage.So, at last, this paper has studied the formation mechanism of land price and its evolution characteristic deeply. We make the theoretical analysis of the equilibrium of land market in both long-term and short-term and the determinant of equilibrium price by using modern western economic theory at first, and card and summarize the affection factors on land price. On this basis, we use related annual data of China’s land price, economic development and real estate development from 2002 to 2008, apply panel data model to reveal the formation mechanism of land price and its evolution characteristic deeply. The empirical study result shows that the effect of population factor and urbanization level on land price is gradually disappeared following with the stability of population growth speed, perfection of city planning, promotion of economic development level and maturity of real estate developing degree. And the effect degree of housing price on land price is gradually weakened, but the promotion of economic development level has become the decisive factor of land price in current China. This conclusion has also revealed the effect mechanism of land price on housing price. At the early stage of real estate market development or in undeveloped regions, due to constriction of economic development level, land cost is an important component of housing price, but following with the promotion of economic development level or in developed regions, on the one hand, it pulled the land price and housing price increasing rapidly, and on the other hand, it also reduced the effect of land price on housing price, becoming the determinant of land price and housing price.So, according to the conclusions of this paper, we can summarize that the land supply system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" is not the determinant of the increasing housing price. Especially in recently, with the perfection of the system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing", the effect of land price on housing price has been disappeared. Therefore, we cannot blame the rapidly increasing housing price to the system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" and the increase of land price. On the contrary, the increase of land price led by the system of "Bidding, Auction and Listing" was only the return process of the land’s true price, and at the same time, the pulling effect of housing price on land price is gradually weakened. Actually, the real reason which leading to the high land price and housing price is the rapidly growing economic development level, the increase of urban residents’ income, the gradual increase of investment and speculation demand and the higher excess profits of real estate developer.更多还原