【作者】 周立军；

【导师】 刘卫东；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 中国拥有世界22%的人口,但只有世界8.71%的耕地。人多,地少、耕地后备资源不足、分布不均、耕地质量潜在威胁多等诸多基本国情的存在,决定了耕地保护的重要性和迫切性。1987年以来,中国政府相继出台了一系列法律、法规、政策来保护耕地,尽管这些政策的实施使得耕地减少的幅度有所控制,但事实上耕地保护的形势依然严峻,尤其在经济发达地区,伴随工业化、城市化的快速推进,土地利用需求的多样性、层次性逐渐显化,人地矛盾更为突出。例如广东省和浙江省,目前人均耕地分别为0.030公顷和0.038公顷,这一水平仅为全国平均水平的40%左右,耕地保护的紧迫性尤为明显。耕地保护不力,究其原因,关键在于对耕地多功能性认识不足,价值未得到正确体现。尽管在全部的土地利用类型中,耕地就单一功能而言均非具有绝对优势,但土地的经济、社会及生态功能在耕地这种利用形式上具有共生性和协同性,耕地因此而具有相当强的综合比较优势,即耕地的多功能性价值较大。因此,探讨耕地多功能性的理论依据、价值结构,以及科学评价耕地对社会的贡献,对切实有效的制定和实施耕地保护政策具有理论意义和现实意义。本文主要完成以下三方面的工作：其一,从价值的本质含义和耕地的内在特性出发,构建了耕地多功能性价值的三维逻辑模型；其二,从影响耕地多功能性价值总量的两个因素(单位面积耕地多功能性价值及耕地面积总量)出发,探讨了耕地多功能价值评价方法的选择,并引入支持向量机,对城市化快速发展地区的耕地非农化影响因素进行了研究;其三,从耕地价值变化的视角分析了城市化的成本与效益,并构建了核算指标体系。在此基础上,以宁波市区为例进行了实证分析。本文的研究主要取得了以下成果。第一,梳理了耕地多功能性保护理念的起源、内涵；从价值的哲学本质和耕地内在特性出发,构建了由功能维度(供给维度)、效用维度(需求维度)以及价值观主轴三个维度形成的耕地多功能保护价值的多层次逻辑结构模型。并从层次性、发展性、动态性三个方面分析了其特征。第二,在对已有耕地经济产出价值、社会保障价值、生态服务价值各种评价方法进行比选的基础上,形成耕地多功能保护价值的评价体系。并以宁波市区为例研究了其1996年～2007年以来的耕地多功能价值情况及变化规律。结果显示在此期间宁波市区单位耕地面积的价值上升了1.9倍,总价值上升了1.16倍。从价值总量变化看,总价值上升速度低于单位面积价值上升速度的主要原因是耕地非农化引起的耕地总量减少；从价值结构变化看,经济产出价值所占比重有上升趋势,社会保障价值不断下降,耕地资源经济产出价值的增长是耕地资源价值增长的主要因素。耕地多功能价值的结构变化证明,经济产出价值是社会保障价值和生态服务价值得以实现的基础,其增长是合理的；社会保障价值所占份额呈现下降趋势是需求重点变化所导致；生态价值的平稳变化说明耕地生态功能供给的欠缺,也解释了耕地数量的保证是耕地多功能价值总量得以体现的重要方面。第三,从耕地价值变化的规律看,耕地非农化是价值总量减少的重要原因,也是影响特定地区耕地多功能价值总量的重要因素。本文引入支持向量回归机理论,选取总人口、非农人口比重、人均GDP、第一产业增加值、工业增加值、第三产业增加值、固定资产投资、农村居民人均纯收入与城镇居民人均可支配收入比、农村居民家庭经营性纯收入与纯收入比、粮食单产、农业机械总动力、粮食生产价格指数、粮食消费价格指数、耕地保护政策等14个因子作为输入变量,耕地面积作为输出变量构建了耕地面积变化的社会经济驱动因素模型。并根据宁波市区1985年～2007年的数据进行了测算。结果表明,该SVM模型的预测误差在3%以内,具有较高的精度。在此基础上,探索了以上14个因素对模型的精度影响,并通过逐一排除法进行了各因素对输出变量的重要性排序和层次划分。第四,从耕地多功能价值变化的视角构建了包括农业生产资料价格损失、耕地开发成本、城市基础建设和维护成本、城市化和耕地的环境治理成本、耕地的生态服务价值损失、维护耕地粮食安全的成本、耕地的社会保障价值损失、国内生产总值、耕地发展权价值和税收等10个指标构成的城市化成本效益核算评价体系,探索了城市化进程中耕地价值转移的研究路径。实证测算显示,宁波市区城市化的成本呈缓慢上升趋势.而城市化的效益呈快速上升趋势;综合成本和效益,宁波市区城市化净效益不断增加。第五,基于以上分析,结合日本、台湾的经验,提出城市化快速发展地区的耕地多功能保护对策。包括耕地多功能保护理念的树立、耕地多功能价值评价体系和合理经济补偿机制的重建、积极发展生态农业,提高土地集约利用效果,增加科技投入等。更多还原

【Abstract】 China has 22% of the world’s population, but only 8.71% of the arable land in the world. The lack of reserve resources, uneven distribution and many more potential threatens of the quality exacerbate the importance and urgency of protecting arable land. Since 1987, the Chinese government unveiled a series of laws, regulations and policies to protect farmland. Although the implementation of these policies makes the decrease of cultivated land has been controlle, the situation of farmland protection remains grim; Especially in economically developed areas, with industrialization and rapid urbanization, and the diversity and level of land use needs are also significant, and the level of gradually manifest conflict between human and more prominent. For example, Guangdong and Zhejiang, whose farmland area per capita is 0.030 hectares and 0.038 hectares, only accounting for 40% of the national average,so the farmland protection is particularly urgent.The reason of inadequate protection of cultivated land lies in lack of knowledge on the versatility of cultivated land, and the value of it has not been properly reflected. While in all types of land use, land has an absolute advantage in terms of a single function neither, but the economic, social and ecological functions of land in such form of use has a very strong symbiosis and synergy as well as comprehensive comparison advantage, which is called the value of land greater versatility. Therefore, the research on the theoretical basis of cultivated land, the value of the structure, and scientific evaluation of the contribution of land to the society has theoretical and practical significance on the effective development and implementation of land protection policy.The research achieved the following results:Firstly, from the nature meaning and value of the inherent characteristics of land, this dissertation constructs the multi-value farmland multi-level logic model:Secondly, from the total value of the versatility of the two factors (multi-unit area of land value and the total cultivated area), this dissertation discusses choice of the method of value of the land evaluation, and the introduction of support vector machines studied on conversion factors of rapid urbanization of farmland. Thirdly,On the base of the philosophy essence of value and the intrinsic properties of the farmland, this dissertation constructs a model for multi-function conservation value of cultivated land which is in multi-level logic structure on the base of the three dimensions:the functional dimension (Supply Dimension), the utility dimension (Demand Dimension) and the values spindle, also with the analysis of its features.Secondly, With the comparison of various evaluation methods such as cultivated in the value of economic output, the value of social security, and ecological service value, this dissertation constructs the multi-functional protection of cultivated land value rating system. And take the case of Ningbo city from the aspects of economic output value, the value of social security and the ecosystem service value and analyzes the change rule since its 1996-2007. The results show that in this period, the unit value of arable land in Ningbo urban area increased 1.9 times, with the total value increased 1.16 times. From the change of the total value,this rate of growth is far from the rate of the overall socio-economic growth and non-agricultural transformation of cultivated land is the main reason to explain the reduction of total value of arable land. From the change of value structure, the value of economic output is the basis for achieving the value of social security and the value of ecological services and its growth is reasonable; The structural changes in the value of land multifunctional proves that economic output value is the base of the implement of social security value and ecological service value, and it’s increasing is reasonable.It is the change in the focus of demand that leads the share of the value of social security showing a downward trend; The smooth change in ecological value notes the lack of the supply of arable land ecological function, and the amount of cultivated land is an important aspect to reflect the ecological value.Thirdly, from the variation of value, the main reason for the total value of farmland reduction is farmland conversion, which is also an important factor of affecting the value of a particular function of the total cultivated land. In order to find the factors of farmland conversion in areas of rapid urbanization, this dissertation introduces the support vector regression machine theory, choosing the total population, the proportion of non-agricultural population, per capita GDP, the first industrial added value, industrial added value, tertiary industry, investment in fixed assets, the ratio of per capita net income of rural residents and per capita disposable income of urban residents, the ratio of rural households operating net income and net income, grain yield, the total power of agricultural machinery, food production price index, food consumption price index, farmland protection policy totally 14 factors as input variables, and the area of arable land as the output variable to build the socio-economic driving forces model of the cultivated land area change, then make an empirical analysis based on the data of the year 1985-2007 of the urban area of Ningbo. The results show that the forecast error of SVM model is less than 3% which achieves a high accuracy. On this basis, it also analyzes the influence of the 14 factors above on the accuracy of the model, ranking the 14 factors according to their importance to the output variable through the method of excluding one by one, and divides into three levels.Fourthly, this dissertation constructs an urbanization cost-effective evaluation system which is consists of 10 index system, that is the price losses of agricultural production, the cost of land development, the costs of urban infrastructure construction and maintenance, the costs of urbanization and land environmental management, the value loss of ecosystem services of land, the costs of maintain food security, the value loss of social security of land, gross domestic product value, the value of farmland development rights and tax. The result of authentic analyze of Ningbo shows that the cost of urbanization in Ningbo urban area increases gradually with slow trend, and the effectiveness increases gradually with relatively rapid changes. Integrated the cost and effectiveness, the net benefits of urbanization in Ningbo urban area is increasing.Fifthly, based on above analysi, and combined with the experience of Japan and Taiwan,this dissertation puts forward the protection countermeasure for multi-function of farmland in the rapid urbanization area, including setting the concept of protecting the multi-function of farmland, evaluating the multi-function value of farmland, reconstructing reasonable mechanism for financial compensation, developing eco-agriculture activly, improving the effectiveness of land intensive utilize, adding the technical investment, etc.更多还原