【作者】 黄奕；

【导师】 黄文杰；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（北京） ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 清洁能源发电项目是我国能源行业的重要组成部分,在能源平衡和能源工业的可持续发展中占有重要地位。自上世纪90年代以来,我国清洁能源发电项目在国内外能源需求、环境保护的双重压力下,随着国家科技和经济实力的逐步提高,在国家的重视和支持下迅速发展,取得了举世瞩目的成就。然而,回顾清洁能源发电项目建设成就、总结项目建设经验、展望未来任务的过程中,应该清醒地认识到,我国目前清洁能源发电工程项目的建设、管理及政策支持方面与世界发达国家还存在着比较明显的差距,未来的清洁能源发电工程项目的管理工作还将面临着严峻的挑战。因此,全面学习国内外先进的全寿命周期管理理论和方法,并将其贯穿在清洁能源发电工程项目的规划决策、设计建设、运行管理、拆除报废等各个阶段,对于我国的清洁能源发电工程项目具有重大的意义。论文首先系统地对发电工程项目相关管理理论的文献进行了综述,包括全寿命周期管理理论及其在国内外特别是电力系统的应用现状,现行发电工程项目投资决策理论和模型、全寿命周期工程造价理论、评标、后评价、激励机制设计理论等理论综述,为论文的研究奠定了理论基础。其次,基于以上的文献综述构建了基于全寿命周期管理理论的清洁能源发电工程项目的管理理论框架,针对项目全寿命期六大阶段,给出了各阶段的重点工作,和理论制定的目的、原则、整体框架,以及保障理论顺利实施的组织结构；介绍了基于全寿命周期的清洁能源发电工程项目的成本组成、数学模型,重点分析了发电企业环境成本的概念、内容以及计算公式；使用层次分析法对四种发电模式的全寿命周期成本进行了实例分析和评估,说明了全寿命周期分析法对清洁能源建设的优势,且对清洁能源发电工程项目应用全寿命周期管理理论给出了一些初步的政策建议。第三,基于行为经济学视角,研究投资者的期望回报率与其风险偏好之间的函数关系,并以此为基础对期权博弈理论中折现率固定不变的缺陷进行修正,构造了一种基于投资者不同风险偏好的清洁能源发电项目期权博弈投资决策模型,并对其进行了仿真分析,增加了发电投资决策的科学性和合理性；基于全寿命周期成本和实物期权理论对传统的LCC成本估算模型进行了修正,建立了考虑实物期权理论和环境成本的、动态、开放的清洁能源发电工程项目全寿命周期成本的投资决策模型。最后,详细阐述了基于全寿命期的清洁能源发电项目的造价管理、评标管理和包括立项决策正确性的后评价指标体系,并给出了具体的案例分析。在稀缺的化石能源条件下,要满足未来迅速发展的一次能源供应的需要,同时也要面对全球可持续发展的需要,我国正在大力调整电力工业结构,尽快建立以煤为主的多元化发展的清洁能源体系。本文的研究对于清洁能源发电工程项目的管理工作具有一定的理论和实践的意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 In China, clean-energy generation project was an important part of the energy industry, which played a significant role in sustainable development of energy balance and industry. Since the 1990’s, with the gradual improvement of technological and economic strength, China’s clean-energy generation projects developed rapidly and had earned remarkable achievement under the dual pressures of environmental protection and great energy demand from both domestic and overseas. However, when reviewing the achievements of clean-energy generation projects, summing up the experience in project construction, forecasting the future tasks, we should clearly understand the obvious gap of current clean-energy generation project construction, management and policy support between China and other developed countries. The future of clean-energy generation project management would be faced with severe challenges. Therefore, a comprehensive study of the advanced Life Cycle Management (LCM) theory, a totally throughout application in stage of planning decisions, design and construction, operation management, removal of scrap and so on had great meaning for our country’s clean-energy generation projects.First, the thesis reviewed literature of power management theory, including LCM theory with its application status especially in power system at home and abroad, the existing power generation project investment decision theories and models, and Life Cycle Cost (LCC) theory, evaluation, post-evaluation, incentive mechanism design theory, and other management theories, which established the theoretical foundation for the thesis.Secondly, the thesis put forward a LCM theoretical framework for clean-energy generation project based on above literature review. Aiming at the six stages of project life cycle, the paper brought forward the focus of the each stage, the purpose, principle, overall framework of theoretical development, and the organizational structure to guarantee the smooth implementation of the theory. Then the article introduced generation cost components, mathematical model based on the LCC of clean-energy generation project, emphatically analyzed the concept, content and formula of the environmental cost of power generation enterprise. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was used in analysis and evaluation of LCC of four generation models, illustrating the LCC analysis on the advantages of clean-energy development. Some preliminary policy recommendations for LCM in the clean-energy generation projects application were also given in the thesis. Thirdly, based on behavioral economics view, the article researched on the different risk preference of the investor, modified the limitation of the changeless discounting rate in the option-game theory, and constructed a model of generation investment decision-making based on different risk preference and option-game theory. The Matlab simulation analysis was carried out to validate the science and rationality of investment decisions. In addition, on the basis of whole LCC and real option theory, the traditional LCC estimation model was modified. A dynamic, open clean-energy generation project LCC cost model for investment decisions was constructed in consideration of real options theory and environmental cost.Finally, the costing theory, evaluation and post-evaluation systems including correctness of the project establishment decision-making of the clean-energy generation project based on LCM were presented in detail and specific case studies are given.In conditions of scarce fossil fuels, to meet the rapid development of a future energy supply needs and to face the global sustainable development, China was now undergoing a large number of power industry structure adjustments, which aimed to build a diversified-develop clean-energy system as quickly as possible. The research of this thesis had great significance in theory and practice for the management of clean-energy generation project.更多还原