【作者】 刘予胜；

【导师】 乞建勋； 李翔；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（北京） ， 技术经济及管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 论文以生态承载力为约束,以实现电力可持续发展为目标,以自然环境、社会经济发展、自然资源开发和电力发展现状为基础,以山西省为例应用生态足迹理论对电力发展占用资源的需求和供给进行分析,寻求实现电力可持续发展的途径方法。论文的主要研究内容和研究成果分为以下几部分。第一,研究目前电力工业发展所处的内外部环境,分析了电力与经济、资源、环境子系统之间的关系,构建了电力与经济、资源、环境系统协调性的评价指标体系和协调度测量模型,并以山西省为例进行了算例分析。第二,通过分析现有生态足迹计算模型的相关理论,结合电力工业的具体情况,提出了电力生态足迹的概念,并从电力工业的发电、供电、用电三个环节考虑,构建了基于资源和环境的电力消费资源账户；在此基础上,建立了电力生态足迹模型,并提出了输电走廊影响因子的概念,对输电线路占用土地面积的生态足迹计算做出了修正；然后以山西省电力工业为例进行了测算。第三,在电力生态足迹模型研究的基础上,着重探讨电力生态承载力计算模型的建立。根据生态承载力的概念,结合电力工业的具体情况,提出以万元GDP电耗占万元GDP能耗的比例来代表电力工业在整个生态系统中的生态承载力份额,修正了水力发电生态承载力的计算模型；在此基础上,建立了电力生态承载力计算模型,并以山西省电力工业为例进行了算例分析。第四,为寻找更为恰当的电力发展模式,应用经验模式分解方法和动力学理论建立了电力生态足迹和生态承载力预测模型,并以山西省为例对“牧童经济”、生态阈值约束、“宇宙飞船经济”三种模式下电力发展可持续性进行预测和对比分析。第五,基于我国政府制定的2020年节能减排目标,首先建立了节能减排双目标下电力可持续发展规划模型,然后根据电力发展规划,分别给出了企业生产用电和居民生活用电节能减排考核优化模型,着重研究了发电生产节能减排问题,建立了节能减排双目标下发电置换优化模型。最后,以山西省为例,给出了2009-2020年山西省电力发展规划目标,并基于该规划目标分析了电力与经济、资源、环境之间的协调性。第六,在前面研究的基础上,从环境、经济、资源、电力四个方面提出了的相应的政策建议,以求对帮助实现电力可持续发展有所帮助。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the aim of achieving electric power sustainable development, and based on the constraint of ecological carrying capacity and natural environment, socio-economic development, natural resource development and power development status, the demand and supply of resource consumed by electric power development are analyzed with applying the ecological footprint theory, analyzes the results of Shanxi province as an example, seeks the measures to achieve electric power sustainable development. The main contents and results are divided into the following sections.First, this paper analyzes the relationships among the economy, resources, environment subsystems and the power system; Establishes the evaluation index system and coordination degree model on the base of investigation of the power industry’s internal and external environment; Makes a calculation example analysis using Shanxi Province as a numerical example.Second, through analyzing the theory of the existing ecological footprint computation model, this paper puts forward the concept of electricity ecological footprint, combining with the specific situation of the power industry, and constructs an electricity consumption account about resources and environment from three segments: power generation supply, use and so on. On this basis, the ecological footprint model was established and the concept of impact factor transmission corridor was proposed in order to modify the ecological footprint calculation about the area of land occupied by the transmission line. Then this paper estimates the ecological footprint of Shanxi province.Third, the thesis focuses on the establishment of power ecological carrying capacity calculation model based on the research of power ecological footprint model. According to the concept of ecological carrying capacity, combined with the specific circumstances of the power industry, the ratio of electricity consumption accounts for energy consumption of 10,000 yuan GDP is proposed to represent the ecological carrying capacity share of power industry in the entire ecosystem, hydroelectric power ecological carrying calculation model is amend; On this basis, a power calculation model of ecological carrying capacity is established and power industry in Shanxi Province as an example makes a numerical example.Fourth, to search for the more suitable power development model, empirical mode decomposition method and kinetic theory is applied to establish power ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity prediction model and use Shanxi as an example to predict and comparative analyze the sustainability of power development under three modes of shepherd boy economic, ecological threshold constraint economic, universe spacecraft economic.Fifth, based on the energy-saving and emission reduction targets for 2020 that drafted by our government, power sustainable development planning model is established under dual targets of energy saving and emission reduction firstly, then the power production, electricity production and residents power consumption optimization model of energy conservation assessment are given in which the paper focused on energy saving and emission reduction of power production, and established the replacement power optimization model under dual goals of energy saving and emission reduction. The power development plan object of 2009-2020 are given by analyzes shanxi province, and coordination between power and economic, resources, environment is given based on the analysis of planning object finally.Sixth, In order to help achieve power sustainable development, the paper brought out corresponding policy recommendations from four aspects including environment, economy, resources and power based on the front research.更多还原