【作者】 武俊芳；

【导师】 牛东晓；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（北京） ， 技术经济及管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 电力行业是国民经济的主要能源提供者,地位十分重要。由于我国一次能源分布和生产力发展水平不均衡,水能、煤炭主要分布在西部和北部,能源和电力需求主要集中在东部和中部经济发达地区,通过煤炭长距离运输、就地发电、自求平衡的发展方式将难以为继。内蒙古自治区有丰富的煤炭资源优势,大力发展以煤电为主的电力工业,结合内蒙古电网的网架结构,加强跨区交易,实现跨区域送电,可以有效缓解电煤等一次能源运输压力,同时可以取得地区间错峰、水火调剂、降低备用容量、节省投资等巨大经济效益,大大提高区域电网可靠性,保障内蒙古经济、环境和电力工业和谐、可持续发展。本文主要研究了以下四个问题：(1)内蒙古区域性能源生产现状研究。从电源规模、电源结构、以及电网输配承载能力三个方面详细地分析内蒙古区域性能源资源和电力生产的优势和存在的问题,论述了内蒙古自治区增发电能消纳的必要性和可行性；(2)内蒙古电力市场供需预测及平衡分析。论文采用回归、最小二乘支持向量机预测等多种方法对内蒙古自治区的电力需求和电力供给做了分析和预测,通过平衡分析以及电网外送能力分析,估计了内蒙古增发电力外送潜力；(3)内蒙古增发电能消纳研究。针对内蒙古地区的实际情况,将技术问题与经济问题融合在一起,设计了增发电能消纳的运营模式、价格机制、交易流程、阻塞管理、辅助服务、运营监管等机制,规范了内蒙古增发电能消纳的操作流程,明确了具体的实施细则。实现国家和区域电力市场有机结合,构建电力多边交易市场和公平、规范、高效的电力交易平台,充分发挥市场配置资源的基础性作用,科学合理的引导电力工业的可持续发展；(4)增发电能的消纳风险评估与预警系统研究。针对内蒙古自治区增发电能消纳风险,提出消纳风险的评估和预警系统框架,设计了风险评估和预警系统,采用交互式人工智能的方法,将风险事项的属性值特征化,建立风险事项和风险值之间的模糊映射关系,形成面向主题的数据仓库。这个系统在经过大量训练后,面临新的分析环境,系统自动调用知识库中的储备,监测系统运营状态与系统知识库状态的差异,作出类似专家的风险判断。并用支持向量机(SVM)分类算法实现了消纳风险的预警。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a major energy provider of the national economy, the status of the power industry is very important. Because of disequilibrium of energy and uneven levels of economic development in China, it is difficult to sustain a balanced balance of supply and demand, through long-distance transport of coal and generating power locally. Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is rich in coal resources, it is advisable to develop coal-based electric power industry under the existing grid structure. Inter-regional power transmission can effectively alleviate the transport pressure of primary energy such as coal, and in the same time, we can gain the advantages of inter-regional peak load shifting, hydro power and thermal power transferring, reserve capacity reduceing and other benefits. All these will do good to improve the regional power grid reliability, promote economic, environmental and power industry harmoniously and sustainable development in Inner Mongolia.In this thesis, four questions are mainly studied as the following:Firstly, Inner Mongolia regional energy production status of research.three aspects of regional energy resources, the power supply size, power structures, as well as the carrying capacity of power transmission, are studied to analysis the advantages and problems in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region electricity production.Secondly, Inner Mongolia Electric Power market supply and demand forecasting and balance analysis. The thesis using regression, least squares support vector machines and other methods to predict demand and supply for electricity on the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. By equilibrium analysis, potential outgoing capacity is estimated.Thirdly, additional electric power consumption research. For the actual situation of Inner Mongolia region, operating mode, price mechanism, transaction process, congestion management, ancillary services, and supervision mechanism are studied for additional electric power consumption, which regulated the operating procedures and specificed implementation electric in details.Fourthly, risk assessment and early warning system study in additional electricity consumption. A risk assessment and early warning system construction framework is proposed, in which, interactive artificial intelligence approaches are established to map fuzzy relations between the risk issues and its’values. After a large number of training, this system can automatically calls Knowledge Base reserves to do judgments likes expert. Risk early warning system are realized by the classification algorithm of Support Vector Machine (SVM).更多还原