【作者】 刘广迎；

【导师】 乞建勋； 李翔；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（北京） ， 技术经济及管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 电力需求属于引申需求,国民经济的发展变化直接决定着电力需求的变化,电力事业的发展与否和国民经济的涨落具有强正相关的关系,事实也表明我国的电力需求处于周期性波动状态。只有掌握影响电力需求波动的主要因素,才能做出正确的投资决策,促进电力事业健康发展。本文首先对基德兰德经济周期理论及模型做了一个比较系统的介绍,阐述了基德兰德经济周期理论的渊源与发展,介绍了基德兰德经济周期模型,并且将基德兰德经济周期理论与传统经济周期理论的差异做了详细的比较,为以后的理论应用打下了坚实的理论基础。其次,对我国1978-2008年间电力需求状况进行了分析,继而对我国电力需求波动中的周期进行了分解。首先将电力需求时间序列分为趋势分量、周期分量、季节性分量、随机波动,然后研究了电力需求趋势成分与周期成分的分解方法,最后对中国电力需求周期进行了H-P滤波和B-P滤波分解,并对基于H-P滤波分解和B-P滤波分解的电力需求周期特征进行了分析。在前述研究的基础上,对消费、贸易、投资的周期波动特征进行了研究,并将最终消费周期成分、净出口的周期分量、投资周期分量与电力需求增长率周期成分进行了比较。同时研究了资本、劳动、全要素生产率的周期波动特征,并将资本周期成分、劳动的周期分量、全要素生产率周期分量和电力需求增长率周期成分进行了比较。研究了要素波动对电力需求波动的影响,进行了要素波动对电力需求波动影响的线性回归分析、要素波动对电力需求波动影响的脉冲响应分析、要素波动对电力需求波动的相对贡献率分析、要素波动对电力需求波动影响的GM(1,N)分析、要素波动对电力需求波动影响的灰色多元回归分析。根据上述研究结果,判定基德兰德周期理论与电力需求周期波动的吻合性,并据此结果,依据目前我国技术发展变化的趋势,提出此形势下电网企业应对电力需求波动的措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Power demand is a derived demand. The development and changes of the national economy directly determine the changes of the electricity demand. There is a strong positive correlation between the development of the electric power industry and fluctuations of national economy. The facts also showed that Chinese power demand is in the state of cyclical fluctuations. Only by mastering the main influencing factors of power demand fluctuations that the right investment decisions could be made and the healthy development of the electric power industry could be promoted.This paper makes a systematic presentation about Kydland economic cycle theory and model at first, and demonstrates the origin and development of Kydland Business Cycle Theory, and introduces Kydland economic cycle model. Meanwhile this paper compares Kydland economic cycle theory with traditional economic cycle theory in detail and finds the differences between the two, in order to lay a solid theoretical foundation for future application. Secondly, this paper analyzes the demand situation of electric power in China’s 1978-2008 year period, and then decomposes the fluctuation cycle of electric power demand in China:Firstly, this paper divides the time series of electric power demand into trend component, cycle component, seasonal component and random fluctuations. And then it researches the decomposition methods of trend component and cycle component. Finally, it makes HP filter and BP filter decompositions of China’s electric power demand cycle and the characteristics of the electric power demand cycle based on HP filter and BP filter decompositions are analyzed.On the basis of the studies above, the research on the cycle fluctuations characteristics of consumption and trade and investment was carried on. A comparison between final consumption periodic component and periodic component of net export and investment periodic component and power demand growth rate periodic component was made. At the same time, the study on the cycle fluctuations characteristics of capital and labor and total factor productivity was carried on. A comparison between capital periodic component and periodic component of labor and total factor productivity periodic component and power demand growth rate periodic component was made. The influences of factor fluctuations on power demand fluctuations were researched. The linear regression analysis and impulse response analysis and relative contribution rate analysis and GM(1,N) analysis and Grey multiple regression analysis of the influences of factor fluctuations on power demand fluctuations were conducted. According to the results of researches above, the coincidence of Kydland cycle theory and power demand cycle fluctuations could be determined. On the basis of the trend of development and changes of current Chinese technology, the measures of the power grid enterprises coping with the power demand fluctuations in this situation were proposed.更多还原