【作者】 颜士锋；

【导师】 臧旭恒；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 产业经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 食品消费是城乡居民日常生活的重要内容,也影响着政府的农产品生产、流通、消费的政策,更关系到国家的长治久安。转型时期,由于居民收入提高、食品价格调整、取消粮油统销制度、加入世界贸易组织和食品禀赋的丰富,我国城乡居民食品消费的外部环境发生了一系列变化,这些变化加强了城乡居民食品消费的市场化程度,增加了食品禀赋,因而引起城乡居民的食品消费行为的变化。城乡居民食品消费的变化表现为,食品支出水平不断提高,取消粮油统销制度和加入世界贸易组织以后,食品消费结构剧烈调整,食品消费的城乡差距和区域差异明显。本文研究取消粮油统销制度和加入世界贸易组织以及食品禀赋变化对城乡居民食品消费行为的影响。重点是食品消费市场化对食品消费的收入弹性和价格弹性的影响,交易成本引起的食品禀赋对食品消费区域差异的影响,取消粮油统销制度、加入世界贸易组织和食品消费突变之间的关系。论文首先归纳城乡居民食品消费变化特点,即消费变化的阶段性、消费的城乡差异和消费的区域差异。然后分析城乡居民食品消费选择行为,在消费者选择行为框架内分析了粮油统销制度对城镇居民食品消费的影响,在存在交易成本假定下食品禀赋对城乡居民食品消费的影响,解释城乡居民食品消费的阶段性特点和区域差异。使用家庭生产理论,在家庭生产技术和农业生产技术的边际产出存在上界的假定下,提出城乡居民食品消费的临界价格假说,用来解释城乡居民食品消费的突变。并进行实证检验,使用城乡居民各类食品消费量、人均可支配收入(纯收入)、食品价格指数的时间序列数据、横截面数据、以及面板数据进行回归分析,验证提出的假说,回归分析使用了扩展线性支出系统模型、几乎理想需求系统模型、线性回归模型以及双线性对数回归模型。最后针对相关研究结论,提出了政策性建议。论文采用了归纳总结、逻辑推理、实证检验、对比分析等研究方法。根据城乡居民食品消费支出数据和各类食品消费量数据归纳整理了城乡居民食品消费的特点。使用新古典消费者选择模型的扩展模型从逻辑上分析城乡居民的食品消费选择行为,这些扩展模型分别为非线性约束模型、交易成本下的食品禀赋模型、家庭生产模型等。采用时间序列数据、横截面数据和面板数据全面检验有关城乡居民食品消费支出水平和食品消费结构的结论。对城镇和农村居民的食品消费分别建立模型,对比分析城乡居民的食品消费,既体现了城乡城乡食品消费差距,又符合城乡居民食品消费模式不同的实际状况。研究的主要结论体现在几个假说上。取消粮油统销制度使得城镇居民食品消费的市场化程度加强,食品消费的价格弹性变大,消费惯性变小,提高了食品消费支出,促进了食品消费结构的调整；在存在交易成本的情况下,不同的食品禀赋使城乡居民面对不同的食品相对价格体系,这造成了城乡居民食品消费的区域差异；市场商品需要加工之后才能消费,食品消费的影子价格受家庭生产技术的影响,“干中学”的影响形成居民食品消费的惯性；在农业生产和家庭生产的边际产出存在上界的假定下,食品消费存在临界价格,在临界价格上,食品消费量突然大幅度上升或者下降,城乡居民两次食品消费突变是取消粮油统销制度和加入世界贸易组织引起的,市场化进程使得某些食品的价格达到临界点上,因而引起了一些食品消费量的大幅度增加或者减少。本文研究的创新之处主要体现在三方面。分析视角上的创新。从食品消费市场化程度和食品禀赋的角度,分析市场条件对食品消费选择行为的影响,着重分析取消粮油统销制度和加入世界贸易组织这种市场化改革对居民食品消费选择环境的影响,进而分析食品消费对收入及价格变化的敏感度的变化,即随市场化程度的加强,食品消费选择行为对市场条件反应方式的变化,以及食品消费量怎样变化。利用食品禀赋模型和家庭生产模型在边际产出存在上界的假设下提出临界价格理论解释城乡居民食品消费的突变。分析方法上的创新。对新古典消费者选择理论进行系统的扩展,分别使用非线性约束模型、具有交易成本的资源约束模型、家庭生产模型分析收入和价格对居民食品消费的影响。这些模型即具有内在统一性,又贴近中国居民食品消费的现实状况,形成系统而符合实际的居民食品消费分析方法,可以综合使用消费理论、生产理论研究居民食品消费。理论上的创新。将转型时期的制度变化因素纳入到居民食品消费的研究中,在食品市场存在交易成本、生产技术的有界性假设下,提出了有关收入、价格、食品禀赋如何影响居民食品消费的假说,系统解释了城乡居民食品消费的突变性、区域差异性和弹性变化,并得到了数据分析的支持。本文基于我国居民食品消费现状的研究结论,既丰富了食品消费的理论成果,又加深了对城乡居民食品消费的理解。研究结论具有很强的政策意义。随市场化程度的加强,居民的食品消费对市场价格和收入的变化做出敏感反应,适应这种变化的农业生产调整和食品安全政策的重要性凸显出来。重要市场化改革措施引起食品消费的突变,适应食品消费突变的配套政策应该与市场化改革措施同步出台。市场交易成本使城乡居民的食品消费受本地食品禀赋状况的约束,降低食品市场交易成本的政策能够改善城乡居民食品消费。更多还原

【Abstract】 Food consumption affects urban and rural inhabitants’life and government policy of production, circulation and consumption of agricultural products, it is also the base of the political stabilization.Transition China has seen the per capita income enhancement, the price adjustment, the cancellation of the grain and cooking oil state monopoly for marketing system, the entrance to the World Trade Organization and food endowment enrichment, which lead to a series of changes of the external environment of urban and rural inhabitants food consumption. There is three characteristics of the changes of urban and rural inhabitants’ food consumption:the food consumption level enhancement, the food consumption pattern fierce adjustment after the cancellation of state monopoly for marketing system of grain and cooking oil and the entrance to World Trade Organization, obvious disparity between urban and rural inhabitants food consumption and that of differential regions.This article studies the influence on urban and rural inhabitants food consumer behavior of the cancelltion of state monopoly for marketing system of the grain and cooking oil,the entrance to the World Trade Organization.The key point is the influence of food marketability on the income elasticity and the price elasticity of food consumption, the influence of the transaction cost on the region difference of food consumption, the relations between the cancellation of the grain and cooking oil state monopoly for marketing system and food consumption sudden changes, the relations between entrance to the World Trade Organization and food consumption sudden changes.First we induce three major characteristics of urban and rural inhabitants food consumption:the stages of food consumption change, the difference beween urban and rural inhabitants’ food consumption, and the difference between regions. Then we use the neoclassical consumer behavior theory to analyze the influence of the grain and cooking oil state monopoly for marketing system on urban inhabitants’food consumption,to explaine the stages of urban and rural inhabitants food consumpton change and region difference,use house production theory, under the hypothesis of the upper boundary of the house production technology and the agricultural production technology, to deliver the critical price hypothesis, to explain the sudden change of urban and rural inhabitants food consumption.And we have carried on the empirical analysis using time series data, the cross section data, and the panel data of each kind food urban and rural inhabitants’consumed. In the end are the policy proposals.The techniques such as induction, logic, empirical examination, contrast analysis are used.Reorganize urban and rural inhabitants’ food consumption level and structure datas to induce the characteristics of inhabitants’ food consumption. The expansioned neoclassical consumer model is used to analyze inhabitants’ food choice behavior, these expansioned models are respectively the non-linear restraint model, the endowmenttalent model under transaction cost,and house production model.The inhabitants’food consumption level and structure conclusions are tested empirically. Urban and rural inhabitants’ food consumptions are analyzed separately, conforming to the different environments of urban and rural inhabitants’ food consumption.The main conclusions are several hypotheses. The cancellation of the grain and cooking oil state monopoly for marketing system strengthened the marketability of urban and rural inhabitants’ food consumption, the price elasticity of food consumption become bigger, the inertia smaller, also has accelerated food expenditure level and food consumption structure adjustment;If there are costs in the food transaction, the urban and rural inhabitants face the different relative food price system, this has created the region difference of urban and rural inhabitants food consumption. After food purchase, food procession can be found, the food shadow prices are influenced by the house production technology, the inertia of inhabitants’ food consumption is formed by "learn from doing". Under the hypotheses of the upper boundary in the agricultural production and the house production, there is the critical price where the food consumption quantity suddenly rises or drops largely. The two sudden changes of urban and rural inhabitants food consumption are caused by the cancellation of the grain and cooking oil state monopoly for marketing system and the entrance to the World Trade Organization. The innovations are mainly found in three aspects.The innovation of view angle, we analyze the influence of the market condition on food consumption under the view of food marketability and food endowment, the influence of the cancellation of the grain and cooking oil state monopoly for marketing system and the enterance to the World Trade Organization are mainly analyzed.The innovation of analysis method. We have extended the neoclassical consumer theory to the non-linear restraint model, the endowment model under the transaction cost, the house production model to analyze the influence of income and price on inhabitants’ food consumption.These models have the intrinsic unity, and close to the realistic food consumption condition, form an system conforming to the actual consumption condition, synthesize the consumer theory and the producer theory.The innovation of theory. Under the hypothesis of the transaction cost and the production technology boundary, the theory of the influence on food consumption of the income, the price, the food endowment have been proposed to explain the discontinuity of food consumption change, the region difference, the elasticity change. The conclusions have very strong policy significance.Along with the marketability enhancement, the reaction of inhabitants’ food consumption to the market price and the income becomes allergic. The important reform measure causes the sudden food consumption change, the necessary policy adapting to the change should be put up. The transaction cost causes inhabitants’ food consumption subject to the local food endowment, the policy of reducing transaction cost can promote inhabitants’ food consumption adjustment.更多还原