【作者】 蔡琳；

【导师】 张东辉；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 产业经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 一个国家或地区的长期经济增长归结为要素投入的增加与全要素生产率(TFP)的提高,中国30余年来的经济增长主要是通过增加要素投入数量而实现的,技术进步对经济增长的贡献较低。但是,只有全要素生产率不断提高才能保证经济增长的可持续性。因此,中国经济面临一个紧迫的问题：经济增长路径必须调整,要大幅度提高全要素生产率,从而实现可持续的经济增长。一般认为,引进外国直接投资(FDI)是加快东道国经济发展的重要途径。长期以来,外国直接投资被认为是促进东道国技术进步、进而提高全要素生产率的重要力量。外国直接投资主要体现为机器设备、技术工艺、专有知识的转移,再加上人员的培训、经营管理、市场销售等专业技能的转移；一般认为FDI通过竞争效应、示范效应、产业关联效应、人员流动效应与产业集聚效应对东道国的技术进步产生积极的影响。基于这个认识,从上世纪70年代末开始,很多中国的学者与政府官员认为,引进外资是提高中国本土企业全要素生产率、促进技术进步的重要途径。经过30年的改革开放发展到今天,中国成为世界上吸引外资数量最多的国家之一。大量FDI投入中国,对中国经济的影响是广泛而深远的,FDI对促进中国的资本形成、扩大出口、增加就业与税收方面,其正面效果是毋庸置疑的。但外资究竟对东道国的技术进步会产生什么样的影响呢?从对中国的实证研究看,认为FDI对东道国技术进步起了推进作用的文献占绝对多数；然而,国际经验的研究却大多得出与此相反的结论。多数国外文献认为,在大多数东道国外资不仅没有对本地企业的技术进步产生积极的推动作用,反而还产生了消极影响。那么,是事实如此?还是研究中国外资技术溢出效应的方法存在问题?这是本文研究的核心问题。在研究中国FDI技术溢出效应的现有文献中,多数学者基本照搬国外文献的模型。但中国的技术进步与经济增长方式具有区别于其他国家的显著特征,因为中国引进外资的30年,恰恰是经济转型的30年。在这30年中,中国的经济运行具有两个显著的特征：一是改革开放引发的制度变迁,二是资源驱动型的经济增长方式。正是这两个基本的经济特征,导致研究外国直接投资在中国技术溢出效应时,不能照搬国外同类文献所采用的计量模型,对这两个特征的忽视,将会影响FDI对技术进步贡献的正确计量。在研究中考虑这两个特征对FDI技术溢出效应的影响不仅限于中国经济,因为对资源的依赖是目前大多数发展中国家的共性,制度变迁则是所有转型经济国家具有的特征,也就是说,本文的研究方法与研究结论,对研究外资在发展中国家与经济转型国家的技术溢出效应具有理论借鉴价值与实践指导意义。在考虑了中国正在经历经济转型和资源驱动型增长的背景下,外国直接投资是否产生了技术溢出效应?如果溢出效应存在它有多大?进一步的问题则是：具备什么样特征的行业获得了溢出效应?通过对这些问题进行深入研究,我们就可以回答：外国直接投资对我国产业技术进步的贡献如何?为促进FDI技术溢出,我们应该采取什么样的产业政策与外资政策?这些问题的研究对于走出金融危机,着力调整产业结构、促进经济转型的中国经济有重要的现实意义。在研究这些问题的过程中,本文遵循以下研究原则：①一分为二的原则。世界上的万事万物都是矛盾的,任何事物都具有多面性。在研究FDI的技术溢出效应过程中,本文不仅阐述了外资对本地企业技术进步与经济效率具有提高和改善的一面,而且也分析了外资可能阻碍东道国技术进步的情形,以求对FDI的技术溢出效应做出全面客观的认识；②矛盾的特殊性与一般性相结合的原则。本文在考虑FDI技术溢出的一般性规律的基础上,分析了中国经济增长的特殊性。结合技术溢出的一般性与特殊性,得出尽可能反映中国经济现实的经济模型,以分析FDI在中国技术溢出效应的本质特征。③理论分析与实证分析相结合的原则。经济理论分析是建立计量经济模型的基础和依据,本文首先基于发展经济学、新制度经济学与产业经济学进行理论分析,在此基础上建立了体现中国经济运行特征的计量经济模型；以山东省制造业为样本,通过实证分析对经济理论进行了验证。本文的创新主要体现在以下三个方面：①研究视角方面,本文在深刻把握中国经济运行特殊背景的基础上研究FDI技术溢出效应。从理论上充分考虑制度变迁和资源驱动型经济增长方式两大特征；实证研究中将代表制度变迁与资源约束的变量加入计量模型,减少了对FDI技术溢出效应参数估计的偏误。使本文从理论分析到实证检验都建立在坚实的基础之上。由此得出的结论回答了一个疑问：“为什么大多数对中国的实证研究认为FDI技术溢出效应显著为正,但大多数研究世界上其他国家的文献却得出相反结论”。②研究内容方面,本文比较深入地研究了FDI技术溢出效应的行业特征。所得结论对提高外资政策和产业政策的有效性和针对性具有指导意义。Kugler(2001)、Javorcik (2004)、姜瑾(2008)提出,溢出效应主要可能体现在行业间的技术进步,而不是行业内部,本文对此进行了检验。同时,什么样的行业特征影响了技术溢出效应,已有文献对此分析不足,本文对这个问题进行了研究。③研究对象方面,本文对实证研究的计量方法进行了改进,采用中国目前分类最细的4位码统计数据建立面板数据模型,以具有代表性的山东省制造业为例分析FDI技术溢出效应。由于行业分类更细,行业的同质性更好,有助于得到偏误更小、可靠程度更高的估计结果。由此得出的结论也更为可信。本文的研究发现：如果不考虑制度变迁与资源驱动的经济增长方式,分析外资所产生的技术溢出效应,FDI在中国的技术溢出效应显著为正；对代表制度变迁的变量与代表资源的变量实行控制后,FDI在中国的技术溢出效应转变为负效应。这与现有文献对世界上大多数国家的研究结论相吻合,同时表明目前多数研究中国FDI技术溢出效应的文献存在偏误。中国引进外资数量庞大,但从制造业领域整体看并没有发现显著为正的FDI技术溢出效应；在“以市场换技术”方面并没有达到政策制定者所希望的目标。行业特征研究表明,行业间的FDI技术溢出显著为正,前向溢出效应在10%的显著性水平上显著,后向溢出效应在5%的显著性水平上显著；出口导向的FDI技术溢出效应显著为正,在1%的显著性水平上显著；行业技术特征与FDI技术溢出效应有一定程度的相关性,但必须考察具体行业。本文的研究还表明,扩大企业规模、增加企业研发投入可以改善FDI技术溢出的效果。本文结合我国实际情况,探索经济变量之间的内在联系和变动规律,进行理论分析、模型构建和实证检验,以推动我国对FDI技术溢出效应研究的不断深入。由此得出以下政策建议。(1)中国需要制定审慎的引进外资政策。如果错误地认为,引进外资能理所当然地产生正向技术溢出效应,那么可能会得到南辕北辙的结果。在制定外资政策时必须立足行业特征、更具针对性。对具有负面溢出效应的外资实施管制,为中国本地企业的技术进步与成长壮大创造更多的空间和机遇。对于可能产生正向技术溢出效应的外资,可以根据国家的产业政策与宏观经济管理政策的需要,给予放松管制或创造更为优越的条件,促进这些外资的引进。否则,希望通过资本积累和改变要素禀赋结构来摆脱技术约束、导入最佳的技术选择,从而实现追赶发达国家的战略目标就难以达成。(2)限制资源耗费型外资的引进。长期以来,价格低廉的资源是驱动中国经济增长的一个主要因素,也是大量FDI来中国的一个重要原因。这其中很多外资都属于全球价值链中的资源耗费型产业,这些资本进行跨国流动的主要动机就是在全球寻找低廉的生产要素,扩大企业日益缩小的利润空间,以延长企业的生命周期。这类企业往往也是技术含量低的企业,因而难以对中国本地企业产生积极的技术溢出效应。由于中国的经济增长逐渐受到资源环境的约束,而引进的资源耗费型外资在增加中国资源环境负担的同时却没有推动本地产业的技术进步。因此,对这些资源耗费型外资应该加以限制。(3)进一步深化改革和扩大开放。单纯引进外资并不能必然地促进国内技术进步,如果不继续深化改革,在目前的经济体制、市场环境与企业素质条件下,从总体上看,外国直接投资反而会对国内产业的技术进步会产生消极影响。所以,中国政府应该进一步加大对内改革的力度,继续深化国有企业的改革,遏制“国进民退”这种不正常现象。其次,降低市场进入壁垒,有针对性地放宽对外资的管制条款。切实把握机遇,在世界经济再平衡的过程中继续扩大开放。(4)加大对人力资本的投资,更加重视研发投入,提高企业的的消化吸收能力以及再创新能力。人是技术发明和知识传承的重要载体,没有充足的人力资本投资,技术进步就成为空谈。通过大力发展教育培训事业来储备和提升人力资本,可以提高本地企业的技术吸收水平,促进本地企业从外资企业学习、模仿到更多的技术。增加研发投入,则能提高中国企业自主创新的能力。单纯从国外引进先进的仪器设备与工艺流程已难以实现中国企业技术的可持续发展。本土企业只有加大自主研发投入和管理,正向的FDI技术溢出效益才能更好地体现出来。(5)从行业特征的角度看,必须提高中国本土企业的规模经济水平。本文的实证研究发现,企业规模经济是影响FDI技术溢出效应的重要因素。政府应该一方面通过税收调节、融资支持等手段,鼓励发展潜力大、具有竞争优势的企业依靠自身经营不断做大做强；另一方面,鼓励企业在正当的市场竞争中通过兼并收购等渠道,提高规模经济水平,从而引导资源向技术进步快、具有更高经济效率的企业流动。更多还原

【Abstract】 As to the studies on technology spillover effects of FDI in China, most articles cite the models in foreign literatures, but the technical progress and economic growth in China have distinct features that are different from other countries. It was just the period of economic transition when China introducing foreign investment. During the past 30 years, the economic operation has two notable features:one is the evolution of institutions; the other one is that the natural resources still plays an important role in promoting the economic growth. Exactly because of the above two features, we shouldn’t copy the econometric model in the similar foreign literatures to research the spillover effects of FDI in China. Neglecting the above two features will affect the accuracy of analyzing the influence of FDI on the technical progress. Therefore, it would make sense to take the influence of the two features on FDI into consideration in our research. Relying on the resource and environment is the common character of developing countries; institutional evolution is the common character of courtiers experiencing economic transition. It means that the research method and conclusion are of important significance for researching the FDI technology spillover effects in the developing countries and the countries which experiencing economic transition, both as the theoretical reference and practical guidelines.If taking the background that China underwent economic transition in to consideration, whether FDI generated technology spillover effect? If technology spillover effects do exist, how about the extent? The further question is which industries benefit from the technology spillover effect? Finally, based on the above research, we can find the answer for which industrial policies and foreign investment policies we should adopt to promote the positive technology spillover.During the process of researching these issues, this paper comply with the following methods:①The principle of "one dividing into two". There is nothing that does not contain contradiction, everything in the world is multi-faced, in order to make an objective understanding of technology spillover effect of FDI, this paper not only elaborates the positive effects of FDI in promoting the technical progress of local enterprises and enhancing the economic efficiency, but also analyze the negative effects of FDI in impeding the technical progress.②Combine the particularity and generality of contradiction; Based on considering the universal laws of FDI technology spillover, this paper analyze the particular feature of economic growth in China, combining the particularity and generality, it conclude the economic model to reflect the situation of Chinese economy, and then analyze the case of FDI technology spillover in China.③Combine the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis together. Building up the basis and guideline of econometric model through theoretical analysis, this paper makes theoretical analysis based on development economics, new institutional economics and Industrial Economics, and then verify the economic theory through empirical analysis.The innovations of this paper can be described as the following three aspects:①Put the influence of changes in institution and resources environment into the econometric model, we can reduce the biased error in estimating the parameter of FDI technology spillover effect, therefore this paper can explain that "Why most empirical analysis show that FDI promote the technical progress in China, while most articles in studying the situation in other countries draw the opposite conclusions".②A dedicated study of industrial features is presented on the FDI technology spillover in different manufacturing industries. Kugler (2001), Javorcik (2004), JiangJin (2008) presented opinions that the technology spillover effects are mainly generated between industries, not inside the industry. However, the existing articles didn’t analyze which features of industry affect the technology spillover effect among industries; this paper gives an answer to the question.③Establish the panel data model by using statistical data of four digits to analyze FDI technology spillover effect in China; Since the classification of industry is more explicit, and the industry has better common characteristics, the conclusion is more reliable.After introducing the resources environment and institutions as variables into econometric model, we find that the FDI technology spillover effect can’t pass the significance test, or FDI has negative effects on the technical progress of the local enterprises in China, this conclusion coincides with the situation of most other countries in the world. Considering the actual condition in China, this paper researches the internal connections and laws of change among the economic variables, summarizes the theories and establishes the model; it can push the research on FDI technology spillover effects becoming deeper and more profound.This paper finds that:the technology spillover effects can be enlarged by expanding the size of local enterprise, strengthening the input of R&D and reducing the capital gap between the local enterprises and foreign enterprises. Therefore, we can conclude the policy suggestions as followed:1) attach importance to investment in human capital. It is the human who invent and inherit technologies, if there aren’t enough investment in human capital, it will make no sense to talk about technical progress; Through empirical analysis, we find that introducing foreign investment and human capital are restricting while promoting each other. Therefore, we should develop education for human capital.2) Increase R&D investment. Just importing the advanced instruments and equipments, processing methods, such behaviors of copying the foreign enterprises can’t help realize the sustainable technical progress. Only increasing independent R&D, enhancing the level of absorbing technology and the standard of R&D, the technology spillover effects can be more obvious.3) In terms of the industrial features, we should promote scale economy in the enterprise, and increase the amount of capital in the individual enterprise.The empirical analysis shows that:the two factors are critical for generating FDI technology spillover effects, with larger of scale economy of the enterprise and more human capital, there will be more obvious spillover effects. Therefore, on one hand, encourage the enterprises which have competitive advantages to grow stronger through various ways such as tax adjustment, financial support. On the other hand, the local government should encourage merger and acquisition of enterprises through fair market competition; guide the sources flowing to the effective enterprise, provide conditions for enterprises to imitate and absorb advanced technologies.更多还原