【作者】 朱孟晓；

【导师】 臧旭恒；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 产业经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 转型期间,我国经济稳步而持续的发展已成为共识。其中消费在经济发展中具有重要地位,直接关系到了我国宏观经济运行态势,同时经济发展成果的首要表现之一就是居民消费水平的提高和消费结构的升级。转型时期居民消费表现出明显的消费需求升级特征,消费结构转变快速。同时备受关注的问题是,随着经济的增长、居民收入的提高,我国居民消费率持续走低,居民消费倾向不足、消费不振等问题日益凸显,如何振兴和发展消费是我国经济持续发展过程中需要着力解决的问题。深入考察我国居民消费行为、采取有效政策振兴消费成为本文的研究目的和主题。经典消费理论对消费倾向的决定或影响因素进行了一般性的论述,其研究路径主要从收入因素和需求因素两个方面展开和深化。现有文献从不同的视点和角度分别对我国居民消费倾向进行研究,其研究方法及研究结论存在较大的差异性。本文在已有理论和研究的基础上,充分考虑制度因素、收入因素和需求因素几个方面,重在结合我国居民的消费需求变化实际来研究其消费倾向。在经济和收入的增长背景下,居民的消费领域不断扩展,消费构成多元化,并且各消费项目存在量的消长差异和质的区别,居民交通通信、教育、医疗和住房等新兴消费项目逐渐构成消费行为的主要方面。总消费支出是各项消费支出的综合,居民消费需求升级的程度决定着消费的规模,因此有必要打开消费“黑箱”,在消费内容分解的基础上来研究消费行为,从消费结构变化的内部发展来考察消费行为变化。已有文献的消费研究虽多,但对消费需求升级因素重视不够,几乎没有直接从消费需求变化角度来对我国居民当前的消费问题进行研究和分析。从消费的内部结构变化作为切入点来研究居民消费行为以及消费倾向变化既是消费需求发展变化现实的要求,也是消费问题研究的一种本质上的回归。因此,以消费理论发展与演进为基础,结合我国经济转型的现实,在对消费内部进行内容分解的基础上,本文把制度和收入等因素渗透在居民消费需求变化中,把居民消费需求变化与消费倾向变化联系起来,探讨二者之间的内在关系,在此基础之上回归到制度和政策等因素为消费倾向提高提供具体建议,使得对策的制定和实践更加有的放矢。论文基于转型时期居民消费需求升级视角,建立了收入因素、消费需求升级和消费倾向之间的动态关系。经济增长与转型过程中,居民消费选择机制是收入因素、消费需求升级和消费倾向三个方面相互作用的结果,居民消费需求升级与消费倾向之间存在动态影响关系。具体而言,居民收入水平的增长提供基础支持,居民消费需求升级选择和实现与从收入到消费倾向的决策形成动态关系,同时居民消费倾向的高低决定了消费需求升级的空间和程度,结果消费倾向与消费需求升级形成动态均衡。经济转型过程中的制度因素以及经济增长中的收入因素既构成了居民消费的基本约束,也渗透到居民具体消费项目的消费决策中,从而共同决定了居民消费倾向水平。消费结构中各消费项目之间既有替代性又有互补性。当居民消费的结构升级需求更强时,如果对新兴消费项目的消费意愿不能即时实现转化为实际需求,这部分消费潜力就不容易被替代转移到其他消费项目。医疗改革、教育改革以及住房改革等政策和体制变革直接影响到对应的消费项目；收入水平的提高使得房车等支出量级较高的大型消费项目成为消费重点。当新兴消费项目的消费需求不能快速实现时,消费支出就会受到抑制,结果是储蓄水平提高和消费倾向下降。我国的市场化推进、政策制度不完善以及二者的不匹配会引发居民消费需求升级难题：消费倾向可能被消费自身的升级需求所抑制,消费需求升级不足外化为消费倾向下降。另外,转型中制度和收入不确定性以及新兴消费项目存在的支出不确定性也是影响居民消费倾向的重要因素。在定量分析方面,关于居民消费结构升级因素对消费倾向演变的影响,时间序列分析表明消费结构变动度与消费倾向之间具有长期均衡的协整关系；ELES的模型从理论上说明了消费结构变化因素对消费倾向的影响,实证分析表明消费结构升级因素对消费支出变动有越来越强的作用。对消费倾向变化的消费结构因素定量分析表明了消费结构升级与消费倾向变化之间的密切联系,以及结构中各项消费对消费倾向的区别影响。进一步本文基于消费需求升级、消费倾向与收入之间复杂关系以及变量之间作用关系不确定的分析,采用向量自回归模型(VAR)和面板数据(Panel Data)计量模型来进行实证研究。向量自回归模型(VAR)实证考察了消费结构变化对消费倾向的动态影响。分析表明各大消费项目对消费倾向有不同方向和程度的影响作用。具体来讲,对于城镇居民,食物、衣着和家庭设备用品及服务三个传统消费项目比重变化对消费倾向有反向作用。医疗保健和个人用品、交通通信、娱乐教育和居住四个热点型消费项目对消费倾向的影响出现分化。教育、交通通信和居住类消费比重的变化对消费倾向有明显正向影响；而医疗消费比重变化对消费倾向有非常突出的、持续的负向影响,是消费不振的重要原因,反映了医疗改革带来的医疗负担对居民消费造成的抑制作用。从影响程度大小比较来看,热点型消费比传统型消费对消费倾向的影响程度更大,这也体现了消费需求升级因素在消费行为中的影响力。农村的实证分析结果体现出与城镇居民的差异,主要表现在,相对于城镇居民来讲,农村居民的家庭设备用品及服务消费比重对于消费倾向的正向影响较大,说明家庭设备用品及服务消费仍是农村居民消费需求升级的重点项目,应成为促进农村消费政策的重点关注对象：农村居民医疗保健方面的消费比重对消费倾向构成较大的正向影响,说明农村居民的医疗支出构成了农村居民消费的切实负担。相比较而言,城镇居民的消费需求升级与消费倾向的关系受政策和体制变化(如医疗、教育等消费)影响较大；建立在较低的收入水平制约之上,农村居民的消费需求升级与消费倾向关系受到实物性消费(如家用电器、住房支出等)的影响强烈,较低的收入水平使得农村居民的消费需求升级处于较低阶段。进一步的面板数据(PanelData)计量模型实证分析考察了各方面因素与消费倾向的作用关系。分析结论有助于建立推动居民消费、提高居民消费倾向的政策与消费结构升级中具体消费项目之间的关系,实现消费需求升级和消费倾向提高的一致性。消费需求变化对消费倾向影响的分析结论对倡导热点型消费、高度重视医疗行业的改革和发展、减小人们医疗支出方面的不确定性和经济压力、尽快建立积极有效的社会保障制度和推动农村消费等诸方面的振兴消费政策有重要启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 In transition period, the steady and sustainable development of China economy has become a consensus. Consumption, directly relating to China macroeconomic situation, has an important position in economic development. At the same time, the first performance of economic development is to raise consumption level and speed up consumption structure upgrading. In transition period, upgrading features of consumption is clear, and consumption structure is fast-changing. But one major concern is, with economic and income growth, that China’s consumption rate has been falling, and the issues of low propensity to Consume or consumption sluggish has been increasingly prominent. How to expand consumption demand and stimulate economic growth is currently a major problem. Deep survey of consumer behavior of Chinese residents and adopting effective policies to revitalize consumption become the subject of our study.Classical consumption theories present a general exposition of influencing factors for propensity to consume, expanding and deepening from both income and demand factors. The existing literatures study Chinese resident’s propensity to consume from different perspectives and angles, and there are big differences among their research methodology and conclusions. Based on existing theory and research, this paper studies Chinese resident’s propensity to consume, fully taking into account institutional factors, income factors and demand factors, and focusing on the role of consumer demand upgrading of Chinese resident in propensity to consume. Following the economic and income growth, people’s consumption field gets ever-expanding, and consumption structure has a move toward diversification, and there are the quantity and nature differences among various consumption items. Emerging consumer items, such as transportation and communication, education, health care and housing, gradually constitute the main aspects of consumer behavior. Total consumption expenditure is the result of al! items expenditure and the level of consumption structure upgrading determines the size of consumption. So it is necessary to open the "black box" of consumption, study consumer behavior based on the decomposition of consumer content and examine behavior change from internal development of consumption structure changing. Although the literatures on consumer behavior have been more, it is rare to study current issue of Chinese resident consumption from the point of consumption upgrading. It is not only the demands of reality in consumer demand changing, but also the nature return of research on consumption issues to study consumer behavior and propensity to consume from the pointcut of internal development of consumption structure changing. Therefore, based on advance and evolution of consumer theory and combined with the reality of China economic transition, from the perspective of consumption upgrading, this paper infiltrates institution, income and other factors into consumer demand changing, relates propensity to consume to consumption upgrading, investigate their intrinsic relationship and then return to institution and policy to provide specific and targeted recommendations for the growth of propensity to consume.Based on the perspective of consumption structure upgrading in the transition period, this paper establishes dynamic relationship of income, consumption upgrading and propensity to consume. During the Economic growth and transition, consumer choice mechanism is the interaction of consumption structure upgrading, propensity to consume and income. There is dynamic effect between consumption upgrading and propensity to consume. In particular, the growth in income level is the basic support, the choice and achievement of resident consumption upgrading forms a dynamic relationship with the decision from income to propensity to consume, while the level of propensity to consume determines the space and extent of consumption upgrading, and in the end dynamic equilibrium between propensity to consume and consumption upgrading is obtained. Institutional factors in the economic transition period and income factors in economic growth constitute the basic constraints of resident consumption, and penetrate to the consumer decision-making for specific consumer items, which jointly determine the level of propensity to consume. There are both alternative relationship and complementary relationship among various consumer items. When the consumption structure upgrading is more important, if consumption growth in emerging consumer items can not immediately be transferred to actual demand, this potential spending is not easily transferred to other consumer items. Health care reform, education reform and housing reform directly affect the corresponding consumer items; Income growth makes house and car become the main consumer items. As consumer demand of emerging consumer items can not be quickly realized, the decline of alternative relationship among various consumer items inhibits total consumption expenditure, allowing savings increase and expenditure decline. China’s market-oriented forward, the imperfect of policies and systems, and the mismatch between them lead to the difficult of consumption upgrading, and inadequate of consumption upgrading is reflected in the decline of propensity to consume, and then harms the interaction between consumption upgrading and propensity to consume. In addition, the uncertainty of institution, income and expenditure of emerging consumer items are also important factors affecting propensity to consume.In the quantitative analysis, with regard to the effect from consumption upgrading on propensity to consume, time series analysis shows that the degree of change in consumption structure and propensity to consume have cointegration relationship of long-term equilibrium; ELES model theoretically describes the effect of consumption structure changing on propensity to consume, and empirical analysis shows that consumption structure factor plays more and more important role in propensity to consume changing. Quantitative analysis shows that there is close link between consumption structure upgrading and propensity to consume, and the different impact from different consumption item. Furthermore, based the complex relationship among consumption upgrading, propensity to consume and income, and the uncertainty of their relationship, this paper uses vector autoregression (VAR) and panel data model to carry out empirical research. Much relevant research has been the lack of the dynamic system relation among consumption upgrading, propensity to consume and income, so has not do the research of consumer behavior from the perspective of consumption upgrading. Vector autoregression (VAR) empirically studies the dynamic effects of consumption structure changing on propensity to consume. Empirical analysis shows the difference of directions and degrees of various major consumption items’effect on propensity to consume. Specifically, for urban residents, changes in the proportion of three traditional consumption items, food, clothing and household appliances and services, have reverse effect on propensity to consume. Four hot consumption items, medical care and personal products, transportation and telecommunications, entertainment and education and housing produce different impact on average propensity to consume. The proportion change of education, transportation and communication and housing produce significant positive influence on propensity to consume; while the proportion change in health care spending tends to have very prominent and sustained negative effect, and is an important reason for consumption sluggish, reflecting burden caused by the health care reform. As for the impact degree, emerging consumption items have greater impact than the traditional consumption items on propensity to consume, which also reflects consumption upgrading influence on consumer behavior. Empirical analysis of rural residents reflects the differences from urban residents:compared with urban residents, the proportion of consumption of household appliances and services in rural residents has a greater positive impact on propensity to consume, indicating that consumption of household appliances and services is still a key project for consumption upgrading in rural areas, and it should be the focus of rural consumption policy; Proportion change of rural residents’health care spending tends to constitute the positive impact on propensity to consume, indicating the practical burden from health care spending. In comparison, the relation between consumption upgrading and propensity to consume in urban residents is influenced more by the policy and institutional changes (such as health, education and other consumption); Based on the lower level of income, the relation between consumption upgrading and propensity to consume in rural residents is subject to physical consumption(such as household appliances, housing, etc.) more, and lower income level makes the consumption upgrading of rural residents at a lower stage. Further, panel data analysis examines long-term relationship between various factors and propensity to consume. Conclusions contribute to the establishment of relation between consumption promoting policy and consumption structure upgrading to achieve their consistency. Conclusions on the effect from the proportion change of various consumption items on propensity to consume provide important inspiration as fallowing aspects:to promote emerging consumption items, attaching great importance to the reform and development of medical industry, to reduce residents pressures and uncertainty from health care spending, as soon as possible to establish positive and effective social protection system and to promote rural consumption for the revitalization of consumption and so on.更多还原