【作者】 张昕；

【导师】 臧旭恒；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 产业经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 伴随着全球经济一体化程度的加深,产业安全问题日益受到重视。本文在全球生产网络的框架下,结合产业安全理论来对中国大豆产业安全问题进行分析。在借鉴前人研究成果的基础上,力求客观地分析出影响大豆产业安全的几个最重要因素,并分别对这几个因素并试图提出一种真正有效而可行的实战方案来帮助中国的大豆压榨企业规避急剧波动的大豆、豆油及豆粕价格的风险。本文采用理论加实证的分析方法,理论方面提出了基于全球生产网络的新产业安全观,即要从资源要素、国际产业竞争力、引进外资和金融产业安全四个方面系统阐释全球生产网络形成对中国现实产业安全形成的威胁。实证方面,采用了灰色系统模型、因子分析模型、DEA数据包络分析和案例研究方法。希望架构起一个中国产业安全的指标体系和计量模型,进而构筑起中国大豆产安全的指标体系和风险计量模型。本文的实证结论是：用DEA模型计算的2009-2019年的大豆产业安全度结果显示,中国大豆产业处于危机和不安全状态。并且因子模型结果显示,产业控制指标,产业对外依存度排在前两名,或者说明影响大豆产业安全的最重要的两个指标是产业控制指标和产业对外依存度。随后两章本文便针对这两个影响因子进行了详细的分视角研究。本文的主要创新点包括以下四个方面：第一,大豆期货价格暴涨暴跌、急剧动荡,已经使得大豆产业由实体经济里的供给安全向虚拟经济里的价格安全发生了转变。仅从实体经济即大豆生产的供给需求视角来研究中国大豆产业的安全问题显然已经不够,本文提出了一个全新的分析框架：“货币信用—虚拟经济—实体经济”。在这一框架下,我们能得到大豆价格暴涨暴跌的合理性解释：即三个两极分化导致了大豆价格的急剧波动。“货币信用分配的两极分化”制造和加剧“真实收入分配的两极分化”,制造和加剧“真实经济和虚拟经济的严重背离和两极分化”,美元本位制加上浮动汇率制使得天量货币泛滥人间,这些资金在实体经济里找不到投资的热土,便冲进了虚拟经济领域,导致了大豆等全球大宗商品价格的暴涨暴跌。第二,目前文献对中国大豆产安全的研究仅仅局限于一些表面数据的分析,而没有定量的计量模型的计算。本文在第3章建立起产业安全研究的指标体系的基础上,第4章构筑了专门研究中国大豆产业安全的指标体系。即产业发展环境、产业竞争力、产业对外依存及产业外资控制率四个指标体系,并且进一步地利用灰色模型、DEA模型、趋势外推等方法对大豆产业进行了评价,预测在未来十年中国大豆产业仍将处于危机状态,前景堪忧。第三,以往的文献基本都是强调大豆及大豆产业的商品属性,本文强调的是大豆的金融属性。即大豆不仅仅是一种生产原材料和消费必需品,进一步作为一种投资手段,被国际粮商或国际投机资金所操纵。第四,在研究中国大豆产业价格安全的时候,在“货币信用—虚拟经济—实体经济”的视角下,发现投机逐步主导了虚拟经济的发展。“经济人”假设是人们在从事经济活动时候追逐个人利益最大化。本文则尝试提出“投机人”假设。所谓“投机人”就是人们在从事虚拟经济投资之时追逐个人欲望的最大化。“经济人”在面临利益最大化的时候会收手不干,保住利润,而“投机人”则在无穷贪欲的人性驱使下重仓再次交易(其结果往往是以回吐利润甚至出现大的亏损)；“经济人”在面临亏损时,出于个人利益最大化之考虑会及时止损,而“投机人”往往会沉迷于自己的分析判断,总会幻想行情会朝自己认定的方向走(其结果往往是巨额亏损)；“经济人”理性的,而“投机人”非理性；“经济人”往往投资于实体经济,而“投机人”大多痴迷在虚拟经济里面。小的散户“投机人”往往输给大的机构“投机人”(比如对冲基金)。“投机人”越来越多,能踏踏实实参与实体经济财富创造的人越来越少。“投机人”的投机成功催生一个又一个经济泡沫,营造非理性繁荣的假象；而他们的投机失败,则会给世界带来严重的经济危机。最后的案例研究给出了一个切实可行的中国大豆产业套保方案,作者正努力地开发这一套保模型,以期能实现程序化交易,更好的帮助中国的大豆企业合理的套期保值,以期更好的规避大豆产业的价格波动风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of global economic, academics take more attention to industrial safety. This article analysis security of soybean industry in the frame of international production network. In reference of former research author tried to analysis some key factors of the soybean industry security objectively, and try to make this a truly effective and practical programs to help China combat soybean crushers to avoid sharp fluctuations in the soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal price risk. Furthmore, tried to propose a real way which works to reduce the loss of currently soybean industry efficiently.empirical method is proposed based on the new global production network security industry outlook, the elements from the resources, the international industrial competitiveness, attract foreign investment and finance industry, explained the security system in four areas to form a global production network China’s industrial security threats. Empirical analysis, using the gray system model, factor analysis model, DEA data envelopment analysis and case study methods. Hope that the structure of China’s industrial safety from a system of indicators and measurement model, and then built a safety index of soybean production system and risk measurement models.The empirical conclusion is:The DEA model of the 2009-2019 year soybean industry safety has shown that the soybean industry is in crisis and insecurity. The factor model results show that indicators of industrial control, industrial dependence on foreign rank top two.In other words, description of factors influencing the safety of soybean industry the most important indicators are the industry control and industrial dependence on foreign. This will be followed by two chapters of the two impact factors for a detailed view of the sub.The main innovation of this paper include the following four aspects:First, the soybean futures price spike, sharp turbulence has made the real economy from the soybean industry in the supply of security to the virtual economy where the price of the security changes have taken place. Only from the real economy demand that the supply of soybean production perspective to study the safety of Chinese soybean industry has apparently not enough, this paper presents a new framework of analysis:"Money Credit-Virtual economy-the real economy." In this framework, we can get skyrocketing soybean prices plummeting reasonable explanation:that the three polarization leads to sharp fluctuations in soybean prices. "Monetary Credit Allocation polarization" manufacturing and increase the "real polarization of income distribution", manufacture and increase the "real economy and the virtual economy and the polarization of serious departure from the" dollar standard system with a floating exchange rate system makes the amount of money flooding, these funds invest in the real economy are useless, they rushed into the virtual economy, led to global commodity prices fluctuation.Second, the current literature on the safety of China’s soybean production limited to superficial analysis of the data, have no quantitative calculation of the measurement model.In Chapter 3, this article established the index system of industrial safety research.In Chapter 4, author built a special study of Chinese soybean industry security index system. The index system including four factors, they are:the industry environment, industry competitiveness, industry and the dependence on foreign control of industry rates. Further more, make use of the gray model, DEA model, trend extrapolation and other methods were evaluated on the soybean industry is forecast during the next decade China soybean industry will remain state of crisis.Third, the previous literature are basically stressed soybeans and soybean industries, product attributes, the paper stressed that the financial attributes of soybean. The raw material of soybean production and consumption is not only a necessity, and further as an investment tool, the international food provider or controlled by international speculative capital.Last but most important, the study of Chinese soybean industry when the price of security, in the "currency of credit-Virtual economy-the real economy" perspective, found that speculation gradually dominated the virtual economy. "Economic man" assumption is that when people engage in economic activities, pursue personal interests of the maximum. This article will try to make "speculative" hypothesis. The so-called "speculative" and that the people engaged in the virtual economy, when investment in pursuit of personal desire to maximize. "Economic Man" in the face when the maximum benefit will receive hands quit, keep the profit, and "speculation" and in the endless greed of human nature once again driven Shigekura transactions (which often results in taking the profit is even larger loss); "economic man" in the face of loss, out of personal interest will be considered to maximize the time stop, and "speculation" and tend to indulge in their own analysis to judge, always finds his fantasy market would move in the direction of (which often results in huge losses); "economic man", and so the "speculative" and non-rational; "economic man" is always investing in the real economy, and "speculation" and most obsessed inside the virtual economy. "speculative" often lost to a large organization "speculative" (eg hedge funds). "Speculative" and more and more involved in the real economy can be encouraged to go fewer and fewer people to create wealth. "Speculative" and the successful birth of a speculative bubble after another, creating the illusion of irrational exuberance; and their speculation fails, the world will have serious economic crisis.At last, provided a strategy for Chinese soybean crusher company:tripartite hedging of soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal.In the hope of developing a hedging model, making it a programmed deal which helps Chinese Soybean Company better to complete the reasonable hedging and protect Chinese soybean industry.更多还原