【作者】 冯科；

【导师】 吴次芳；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 城市用地蔓延自出现以来,就得到了普遍关注,并成为世界性的热点话题。西方对其研究已经颇为丰富,无论是概念、效应、机理、测度乃至控制策略都有广泛涉及且较为深入。但在国内,却仅处于起步阶段,已有的文献绝大部分都集中在经验的综述上,少有定量探讨和系统分析。与此同时,学术界对该现象的争议也很大,甚至对它的存在性都各执一词。在此背景下,选择该问题进行研究就不得不慎行。Berlin (2002)曾做过一个令学术界所普遍接受的假定：当城市发展导致的土地消费增长率超过了本地区人口增长率时,蔓延便发生了。基于此,作者相信蔓延是一个全球现象,只不过需要因地制宜,酌情分析。尤其是对中国,经济转型以及城市化进程的高速推进,都昭示着城市发展井喷时代的来临。而海外蔓延所表现出的多种症状在国内都已明显出现,如土地的低效利用、扩展形态的无序、蛙跳式发展、交通拥挤以及开敞空间的损耗等,不仅破坏了生态环境,加大了居民的出行成本,还对城市的健康发展构成潜在阻碍。所以,该项研究的进行就显得非常必要。再者,国内的各项制度安排与西方差异很大,必然导致该现象的内涵、机理等都极富中国特色,如此以来,就更需要深入探讨。全文主要以杭州为例,通过多方位的比较与综合,对蔓延现象的发生程度、内在机理及其控制策略进行了系统研究,并提出部分对策建议。本研究的主要内容如下：第一,内涵重构。利用搜集到的经济、人口、交通及规划数据,论文进行了细致的比较和分析,发现国内外的蔓延特征既存有共性,也存在不同。并据此给出了可能符合国内发展实际的新定义：“中国式城市用地蔓延”是在城市建设用地快速、无序扩展的同时,伴随着交通拥塞、绿地被侵蚀、农田被占用等诸多问题的一种郊区化和城市化共振现象。第二,定量表达。在内涵重构的基础上,依据特征差异选择性地构建了杭州城市用地蔓延的多指标测度体系,并结合五期Landsat TM影像(1982、1991、1996、2000、2005)、四次人口普查数据、土地利用现状图及其它辅助资料,对主城区(上城、下城、西湖、拱墅、江干、滨江)的蔓延程度进行了实证测算。发现中心区的人口外迁趋势明显,转移的方向主要集中在近郊区；建设用地和耕地斑块呈现出破碎化和不规则态势；蛙跳式土地利用明显,扩展形态不尽合理；交通拥挤的加剧增大了私人及社会成本,并且绿色空间损耗严重。另外,杭州的蔓延现象呈现出了典型的阶段性特征。第三,机理探索。西方城市用地蔓延的机理解释丰富多彩,但有一点毋庸置疑,其重心都围绕着市场。但杭州乃至中国却不一样,整个制度背景(如土地所有制类型、城市行政基础)以及城市化阶段、经济发展速度都不一样。经过总结,发现国内的用地蔓延现象具有典型的“制度导向”特征,而非“市场导向”。无论是行政区划的频繁调整、低成本的征地制度以及开发区的盲目建设等,都表征出了“政府失灵”一面,都是土地产权不明晰以及政治体制改革滞后等多重制度缺陷综合作用的产物。第四,控制策略。国内的土地利用规划制度是一种类“增长管理”的制度安排,即通过规模控制、时序把握、区位确定等来引导城市建设和发展。但是,以往的规划政策评价局限性比较明显,基本都是通过复杂的因子体系来测度规划实施前后的相关控制指标,仅仅体现出了数量的变化,而对区位的控制效能鲜有关注。文章引进界线评价法,利用边界容纳度、边界充足度、边界临近开发度3项指标对杭州土地利用总体规划(1997-2010年)中的建设用地控制成效进行了空间定量分析。结果表明,规划建设用地边界的控制成效不尽如人意,约束力也不强：(1)规划实施期间(1997-2005年),规划建设用地边界外的实际建设用地增长规模(33.9km~2)要高于边界内的增长规模(29.1km~2)；(2)大量建设用地增长发生在规划建设用地边界的外边缘,其中共有66.3公里长的规划建设用地边界出现了边缘式土地开发,占总长度(239.3公里)的28%,且整个规划边界的划定范围过小。在此基础上,引进了城市增长边界(UGB)和转移发展权(TDR),对用地蔓延的治理策略进行了理论思考。通过上述的努力和探索,论文可能取得的创新成果有：(1)界定了国内外蔓延特征的异同点,并据此构建出了一套三维度9指标的混合测度体系；(2)重点从“土地制度安排”视阈阐述了杭州城市用地蔓延的内在机理；(3)引进界线评价法对规划的边界控制效能进行了实证研究,实现了图形和数据的有机结合。当然,囿于数据和时间的限制,本项研究还存在诸多不足,但毕竟迈开了尝试性的一步,未来可从机理的实证演算以及策略的细化等方面予以丰富和完善。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since its appearance, urban land sprawl as a hot topic has been got wide attention. So far, plentiful research about it has been conducted in western countries, including the concept, impact, mechanism, measurement and control strategy. However, in China, it is still at the initial stage. Existing literatures mainly focused on the experience review, lacking quantitative study and systematic analysis. Meanwhile, there is great disputation about this phenomenon in domestic academia. Even worse, there is still no agreement on whether it exists or not. Therefore, special attention must be paid to when conducting research in this field.Berlin (2002) ever made a hypothesis generally accepted by academia:When the land consumption growth rate caused by urban development exceeded the population growth rate, it indicates the starting of urban land sprawl. Based on this, I believe that urban land sprawl is a global phenomenon, with no exception for China. The difference is that the research on the phenomenon should be conducted according to the local conditions.With rapid urbanization and economic transition, some typical characteristics of urban land sprawl in western countries also occur in China. For example, inefficient land use, disorder of urban expansion, scattered and leapfrogs development, traffic congestion and loss of open air are apparent in China. These negative impacts not only ruin the environment and increased the travel cost, but also hamper urban healthy development. Furthermore, the domestic institutional arrangement varies greatly with that of western, which inevitably leads to much difference in the characteristics and mechanism of this phenomenon. So we need to investigate urban land sprawl deeply. Taking Hangzhou as an example, this dissertation mainly discussed how to measure it, and tried to find the internal mechanism and effective control strategy. Finally, some countermeasures and suggestions were put forward, mainly including urban growth boundary (UGB) and transferable development rights (TDR).First, the concept was reconstructed. Using data such as economy, population, traffic and planning, this dissertation carried out detailed comparison and analysis. We could find that there were not only some commonalities, but also some differences in the characteristics of urban land sprawl at home and abroad. Then, a new definition was given out. "Chinese urban land sprawl" is a resonance phenomenon of suburbanization and urbanization, with chaotic expansion of construction land, traffic congestion and great loss of green space and farmland.Second, the quantitative measurement was conducted. Based on the characteristics of China urban land sprawl, new multi-index measurement system was reconstructed. Then, combining with five Landsat thematic mapper(TM) satellite images of 1982,1991,1996,2000 and 2005, census data, present land-use map and other supporting data, the extent of urban land sprawl in Hangzhou’s main city zone (Shangcheng, Xiacheng, Xihu, Gongshu, Jianggan, Binjiang) was measured as an empirical study. Results showed that:(1) the population reduced gradually from urban center to suburb; (2) the pattern of construction land and farmland was increasingly becoming fragmentized and irregular; (3) low growth efficiency such as leapfrog development had negative impacts on agriculture, environment and city life. Besides, the urban land sprawl of Hangzhou had shown a typical stage characteristic.Third, the mechanism was explored. At present, although the mechanism explanations of urban land sprawl in west academia was rich, the focus was still on the market-oriented. However, there are many differences between China and western countries in many aspects such as the urbanization process, the land ownership system, and the marketization level. Therefore, west explanations could not be copied without any innovation. After summing up, we found that this phenomenon in China was mainly caused by system arrangement, rather than market power, including frequent administrative division adjustment, low-cost land requisition system and the blindfold construction of economic development zone. They were all characterized by government failure and products of system defects such as unclear property rights and political reform lags.Fourth, the control strategy was assessed and given out. To solve these problems and utilize land resource rationally, there is a tradition of managing urban growth through land use regulation tools, especially as land use planning in China. It is quite similar to the western policy named "growth management", both of which are system arrangement to control urban sprawl through location, scale and time. At present, policy evaluation on land use planning in our country only focused on the comparison between planned indices from beginning to end, lacking sense of space. Combing with literature review, the method of "boundary evaluation" was introduced. Based on the remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) analysis, this research examined the control effectiveness of UCBs (Urban Construction Boundary). Three indicators on boundary control were proposed, including the effectiveness of boundary containment, land inventory sufficiency and illegal adjacent development to the UCBs. Results showed that:(1) the UCBs was so limited in guiding urban growth that most new development occurred outside. The scale of new development land outside UCBs was 33.9 km2 and that inside UCBs was 29.1 km2; (2) many new growths occurred near the boundary. In details, a total of 66.3 kilometers UCBs emerged the edge-type land development, which accounted for 28% of total length (239.3 km); (3) the area encompassed by the UCBs might not be large enough to accommodate new development. The frustration of the urban growth control through the UCBs mainly resulted from the lack of a transparent system for urban land use planning and control to provide sufficient information, the limitation of the traditional land use prediction method to consider contingencies, and the absence of a mechanism to monitor and adjust the UCBs to respond just in time to urban change. In the future, there is still much room for improvement through policy such as UGB and TDR.Possible innovations:(1) Carefully clarified the similarities and difference of urban land sprawl at home and abroad, thus constructed a three-dimensional measurement system consisted of nine indicators; (2) interpreted the inherent mechanism of Hangzhou’s sprawl primly from land institutional arrangement; (3) carried out empirical studies on boundary evaluation method, and achieved a combination of graphics and data. Of course, limited by data and time, there was still much inadequacy needed to be perfected in the future.更多还原