贵阳市城市化经济成本研究

【作者】 高红艳；

【导师】 刁承泰；

【作者基本信息】 西南大学 ， 自然地理学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 城市化作为最重要的社会现象和经济现象成为近年来学术界探讨的热门话题。城市化进程与区域经济发展密切相关,经济发展水平决定城市化进程和水平,而城市化引起的外部性经济又成为推动经济发展的重要驱动力。按照经济学的观点,经济的发展是城市发展最根本的活力源泉,城市规模(包括人口、用地)的大小和城市化水平的高低,实质上都取决于城市经济实力的强弱。城市的发展需要大量资金的投入,其资金投入包括直接的生产投入和大量的公共投入,如果资金投入低于城市发展的最低经济成本,城市的发展和城市化进程就会受到制约,城市发展所需经济成本的研究对城市化可持续发展具有重要意义,而对城市化经济成本的科学分析需要一个科学系统的理论框架,因此对城市化经济成本的构成及其核算体系进行理论和实证研究,具有紧迫性。本文运用地理学、经济学基本原理,综合城市经济学、公共经济学、劳动经济学、产业经济学、发展经济学、城市地貌学、人口学等学科相关理论知识,在对“城市”、“城市化”、“成本”、“城市化成本”等基本概念进行阐述的基础上,系统论述了城市化经济成本的概念与构成,对各要素成本的进行确认和计量,并对城市化经济成本的影响要素进行分析。然后以贵阳市为例对城市化经济成本进行实证分析,对未来一定时期内贵阳市城市化发展所需的经济投资额进行测算。论文研究的主要目的是通过对城市化经济成本构成的辨识以及其计量模型的建立,对城市化发展所需的资金需求量进行预测,以期能为城市化投资效率研究提供依据,同时将城市化经济成本观念引入城市总体规划中以增加未来城市规划的可操作性和科学性。通过研究取得以下主要成果：1、基于广义的成本概念,认为城市化经济成本有狭义和广义之分,以城市化狭义经济成本为主要研究对象对其概念与构成进行界定和辨识。从人口城市化角度定性分析与城市化进程密切相关要素,辨识出城市化经济成本由就业岗位投资成本、城市用地投资成本、城市基础设施投资成本以及城市管理投资成本四个要素构成。并在此基础上指出自然环境、区域经济发展水平、城市类型与性质以及政府政策是影响城市化经济成本的主要因素。2、在对城市化经济成本构成进行辨识基础上,本文从狭义和广义两个角度分别构建了城市化经济成本的计量模型。借助劳动经济学、产业经济学等相关理论构建城市化经济成本各成本要素测算的方法,指出将狭义城市化经济成本计量模型作为分析城市化发展最小经济投资需求量的主要手段。3、对喀斯特山区城市贵阳的城市化经济成本进行实证分析。用时间序列数据和界面数据对贵阳市城市化发展与现状进行了分析,从狭义和广义两个角度对贵阳市城市化经济成本进行计量分析,计算得知在目前贵阳市的社会、经济发展水平下,贵阳市城市化经济成本为17.15万元／人(狭义平均值)或515.73亿元／一个百分点(广义)。4、从定性和定量两方面对贵阳市城市化经济成本各构成要素进行分析得出：喀斯特地貌对贵阳基础设施投资成本影响明显；不同行业、不同所有制和不同规模企业就业投资成本存在明显差异。5、用经济因素相关分析法和趋势外推法对贵阳市未来城市化水平进行了预测,预计贵阳市2010年、2015年、2020年城市化水平将达到66.71%、70.13%、73.41%。6、2011-2015年、2016-2020年两个时期内贵阳市实现城市化预测目标所需的最小经济投资量分别为999.93亿元和1463.99亿元。将政府作为城市化发展的投资主体前提下,用未来贵阳市的财政收入预测对应时期贵阳市可运用于城市化发展的资金量分别为678.10亿元和1077.852亿元,因此预见贵阳市城市化的发展将面临资金瓶颈。7提出调整产业结构、制定合理城市发展战略等措施及建议,有效降低贵阳市城市化经济成本以实现贵阳城市化发展预测目标。最后对全文研究的成果进行了总结,指出城市化经济成本在构成辨识以及计量方法上还需要更深入的研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the most important social and economic phenomena, urbanization has become a hot topic in academic circles in recent years. The procedure of urbanization is closely related with regional economic development. The level and procedure of urbanization is determined by the level of economic development, and the external economic caused by urbanization become an important driving force in economic development。In accordance with the economic point of view, economic development is the most fundamental lifeblood of urban development。The scale of city size (including population, land use) and the level of urbanization, in essence, will depend on the strength of the city’s economic strength. Urban development needs huge capital investments, which includes production inputs and a lot of public input。If capital investment is lower than the minimum urbanization economic cost, urban development and urbanization process will be constrained, Therefore, study on the economic costs of urban development have great significance in the sustainable development of city. The analysis of economic costs of urbanization requires the theoretical framework of the scientific system, Therefore, the composition of urbanization and economic accounting system of theory and practice become more urgent.Based on explaining concept of city、urbanization,、cost、urbanization cost. Using the theory of geography, economics and labor economics and the basic principles of integrated urban economics, public economics, industrial economics, development economics, urban geomorphology, demography and other disciplines related to theoretical knowledge, discusses the recognition and measurement the elements of the urbanization economic costs. analysis of factors affecting the economic costs of urbanization。Then, make economic costs of urbanization study of Guiyang City as the empirical case study, calculate the economic investment for Guiyang City development in the future. This article aims to forecast funds needed for urban development through measurement model of economic costs of urbanization. It is also our hope to introduce the concept of economic cost in order to increase the operational and scientific city planning in the future.The main results are as follows:1.based on the concept of generalized cost, defining and identifying the narrow economic costs of urbanization and its components; the economic costs of urbanization form by the jobs investment cost, investment cost of urban land, urban infrastructure investment costs and City management investment costs. Pointed out the natural environment, regional economic development, urban type and nature of government policies are the main factors of economic costs.2. Construct econometric models of economic costs of urbanization from the broad and narrow perspective. With the theory of labor economics, industrial economics theory, construct the calculation method of elements of urbanization economic costs. The narrowed economic costs of urbanization is expected to regarded as a means of measuring model in forecasting the minimum economic investment in urban developmentEstablish the measurement methods of the constituent elements after analyzing the various elements of narrowed economic costs of urbanization.3. Empirical analysis of economic costs of urbanization of Karst mountain city Guiyang.By use of time-series data and interface data, analyzing the development and urbanization situation of the Guiyang city, calculating the economic costs of Guiyang city from the narrow and broad scales. The results indicates that: the narrowed economic costs of urbanization was￥17.15 person; General economic cost is￥515. 73 billion/one percentage point.4. Through analyzing the various elements of economic costs of Guiyang City on both qualitative and quantitative. The results show that Karst topography has a significant effect on infrastructure investment costs.The difference are very clear in the cost of employment investment among Enterprises of different industries, different sizes and different ownership.5. Forecast the level of urbanization of Guiyang with economic factors analysis and trend extrapolation.The level of urbanization Guiyang City will reach 66.71%, 70.13%,73.41%in 2010,2015,2020.6. During the period of 2011-2015,2016-2020, to achieve the expected targets investment of Y999.93 billion and Y 1463.99 billion at least are required in Guiyang city.Under the assumption that the government will be the main urban development investor, we can predict the amount of funds of Guiyang City in development for the responding period, based on the future financial income of Guiyang city,is￥678.10billionto￥1077.852billion,so the there is vaseneck for forcasting the urbanization development of Guiyang city. 7. Proposal in adjusting the industrial structure, developing and recommending reasonable urban development strategies to reduce the economic costs of urbanization and achieve the urbanization development expected targets of Guiyang City.Finally, the paper summarizes the results of the study and pointes out that the form identification and measurement methods of economic costs of urbanization needed to be further studied.更多还原