中国农村居民消费影响因素的实证分析

【作者】 胡宝娣；

【导师】 王钊；

【作者基本信息】 西南大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,中国的经济转型战略取得了巨大成功,但内需不足的结构性失衡问题一直未得到根本解决,尤其是广大农村居民消费率明显偏低,己成为中国经济长期健康运行的隐忧。伴随着世界经济进入后危机时代,以及中国改革向纵深推进,问题变得更为复杂。因此,深入研究农村居民生活消费的主要影响因素及其作用机制,是一个具有重要现实意义和丰富政策蕴含的命题。一、论文的研究内容本文在系统收集、整理和综合有关消费研究的理论与实证文献基础上,结合中国农村居民生活消费演变的历史轨迹与现实特征,运用动态面板、结构VAR等现代计量方法构建模型,实证分析农村居民收入水平及收入结构、社会保障支出、财政支农政策、货币政策等因素对农村居民生活消费支出的影响,进而探讨政府在刺激农村居民消费领域发挥作用的合理空间和有效方式,并有针对性地提出相应政策建议。全文共分四部分：第一部分为绪论,介绍论文研究背景和意义,设计中国农村居民生活消费影响因素研究的主要内容和结构框架、基本思路和方法,归纳总结论文的主要创新点及有待进一步研究的问题。第二部分包括第二和第三章,通过对国内外居民消费的理论和相关实证文献的梳理和述评,以及对中国农村居民生活消费特征的统计描述和分析,为后文的实证分析奠定基础。第三部分包括第四一第七章,分别从农村居民收入水平及收入结构、社会保障支出、财政支农政策、货币政策等角度进行了实证分析,检验相关因素对中国农村居民生活消费的影响。第四部分是研究结论及政策建议,总结实证结论,进而提出启动我国农村居民生活消费的相应政策建议。二、论文的主要研究结论1、促进农村居民生活消费,释放其潜在消费能力是当前扩大内需的重点1978-2008年期间,中国农村居民生活消费支出呈现持续上升趋势,消费结构也得以不断升级和优化,目前已从满足温饱的数量扩张型消费转向寻求发展和享受的质量提升型消费阶段,未来还蕴涵着巨大的上升空间。但是,从整体上看,农村居民消费增速长期低于城镇居民消费增速,同时,农村居民内部消费差距也趋向扩大,中国农村居民消费率明显偏低的问题依然没有得到有效解决。2008年全球金融危机后,国内外的宏观经济形势已经发生了新的变化,改变国民经济中消费、投资与净出口比重的失衡状态,显得更为迫切,而启动占全国人口54.32%的农村居民的消费需求仍是当前扩大内需的重点。2、收入是影响农村居民生活消费的核心变量,社会保障、财政和货币等政策工具也是影响农村居民生活消费的有效工具(1)收入是影响农村居民生活消费的核心变量。中国农村居民人均消费支出和人均纯收入之间在1996年之前和之后均存在长期稳定的均衡关系和短期动态调整机制,收入是影响农村居民消费的主要影响因素。由于进入20世纪90年代中期以后,经济转型使得农村居民消费的不确定性大大增强,如农村居民医疗费用上涨、农村医疗保险制度缺失、高等教育收费的压力等等,农村居民边际消费倾向呈现震荡式持续下降,持续的短期动态调低使得农村居民逐步脱离原来的消费与收入的均衡关系,形成了新的均衡状态。从收入类别来看,持久收入、暂时收入的增加均引致农村居民生活消费支出增加,但持久收入的影响远大于暂时收入；工资性收入、经营性收入以及居民财产与转移性收入的提高均引致居民生活消费的增加,但经营性收入的影响远大于工资性收入和财产与转移性收入。(2)社会保障可以大大降低农村居民未来养老、医疗等支出,改善消费者的消费预期,平滑了农村居民的收入流,对农村居民生活消费存在一定的促进作用。但是由于我国社会保障的覆盖面还较窄,使得社会保障对农村居民生活消费的拉动作用有限。(3)中国的财政支农政策及其实施过程中,具有较强的产出倾向,财政农业支出显著提升了农村总产出,但对农村居民生活消费的影响比较微弱。从细分类别来看,各类财政农业支出对农村居民消费的影响也不尽相同。事业费、救济费、科技费都对农村居民消费有正的挤入效应,而农业基本建设费对农村居民生活消费则有挤出效应。(4)扩张性货币政策对农村居民生活消费有正面影响。货币供给增加,农村居民当期消费上升。利率提高会对农村居民生活消费倾向产生消极作用,减少当期消费,但作用较微弱。3、启动农村居民生活消费,需要相关政策的协调与配合,并建立长效机制农村居民生活消费受多种因素综合作用,要想释放农村居民的消费潜力,需要相关政策的长期协调与配合。仅仅依靠单方面、短期政策调整促使农村居民收入增加,难以从根本上解决农村居民消费不足的问题。需要建立增加农村居民收入的长效机制,建立健全农业、农村和农民的各种保障制度,增加农村地区基础设施投资,完善农村消费信贷市场,努力使农村居民有钱可花,有钱敢花,有钱能花。首先要促进农村居民收入的持续稳定增加,稳定收入预期。破解农村居民家庭经营性收入的增值瓶颈,减少农业生产的自然风险和市场风险,增加农村居民持久性收入。提高农村居民文化素质和就业能力,稳定其工资性收入,努力提高农村居民财产性和转移性收入的比重。同时要为农村居民建立稳定、和谐的社会制度,稳定支出预期。其次要增加财政支农力度,并优化财政支农结构,增加农村基础设施建设投资,改善农村居民消费环境。逐步完善农村消费信贷市场,消除农村居民流动性约束。三、本文研究特色与创新之处(1)运用制度经济分析方法和经验性分析方法对中国农村居民消费变动的影响因素进行了定性分析,尝试从宏观层面构造较为全面的中国农村居民消费研究框架,搜寻和筛选影响中国农村居民消费变动的主要宏观因素,为实证研究确定假设条件提供分析前提和铺垫,充实和丰富了现有中国居民消费理论研究的体系。(2)运用新近发展的动态面板GMM估计技术、协整和VAR等时间序列建模方法构造了中国农村居民消费影响因素的计量经济模型,分别实证了农村居民收入(包括人均收入、来源结构和来源形式)、社会保障支出、财政支农政策、货币政策等宏观经济变量对农村居民消费支出的影响,是对现有中国农村居民消费影响因素实证研究的一次尝试性探索。(3)根据实证结论,提出稳定农村居民收入与支出预期、改善农村居民消费条件、消除农村居民流动性约束的政策建议,以期为刺激中国农村居民消费、扩大内需提供政策参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening up, China’s economic restructuring strategy has scored great success; however, structural imbalance caused by insufficient domestic demand has not been completely resolved. In particular, the consumption rate is strikingly low in the vast rural areas, threatening the long-term and healthy growth of China’s economy. The problem is complicated with the coming of post-crisis era for world economy as well as the deepening and widening of China’s reform. Therefore, in-depth study of the factors influencing the household consumption in rural areas and of their mechanism is a subject with realistic significance and rich policy implications.I. Main ContentThe article makes empirical analysis on the influence of income level and structure, social security expenditure, financial support for agriculture, monetary policies and other factors on household consumption in rural areas by reviewing the historical records and realistic features of household consumption evolution in rural China and by building the models in ways of dynamic panel and structural VAR models on basis of collecting, summarizing the consumption research theories and related empirical data. It also discusses the reasonable space as well as effective methods for the government to spur rural household consumption, and then proposes policy recommendations with clear focuses. The article consists of four parts:The first part is an introduction on research background and significance, in which the main content, structure, thread of basic thoughts and methods for this research are designed and the major innovative ideas and the problems to be studied are summarized. The second part includes Chapter 2 and 3, which lay a foundation for the empirical analysis in the following paragraphs by sorting out and commenting on the household consumption theories as well as related empirical data both at home and abroad and by describing, analyzing the statistical characteristics of household consumption in rural China. The third part covers the chapters from 4 to 7, making empirical analysis from the perspectives of income level and income structure of rural households, social security expenditure, financial support for agriculture, as well as monetary policies and examining the influence of relevant factors on household consumption in rural China. The forth part is about the conclusions and policy recommendations, in which the conclusions of the empirical analysis are summarized, and policy recommendations on spurring the rural household consumption are advanced.II. Conclusions1. Boosting rural household consumption and unleashing the potential spending power are the focuses of the efforts to expand domestic demandBetween 1978 and 2008, household consumption in rural China continued to show an upward tendency, and the consumption structure was kept upgraded and optimized. At present consumption has changed from the quantitative expansion to seek adequate food and clothing to qualitative improvement to seek development and comfort, and there exists enormous space for further upgrading in the future. However, in view of the overall situation, the growth rate of rural household consumption is lower than that of urban household consumption over a long period of time; meanwhile, the consumption gap among rural residents tends to widen and the problem that consumption rate of China’s rural residents is strikingly low is not effectively addressed. After the 2008 global financial crisis, the macro economic situation in China and other countries has changed. As a result, it is more urgent to change the unbalanced proportions of consumption, investment and net export in national economy, while to spur the consumption demand of rural residents who account for 54.32% of the Chinese population remains the focus of efforts to expand the domestic demand.2. Income is the core variable affecting the rural household consumption; social security, fiscal and monetary policies are also effective tools influencing rural household consumption(1) Income is the core variable affecting the rural household consumption. A long-term and steady equilibrium relationship and short-term dynamic adjustment mechanism stand between the per capita consumption expenditure and per capita net income of China’s rural households before and after 1996. Income is the main factor influencing the consumption of rural households. With the coming of mid 1990s, economic restructuring increased the uncertainty of rural household consumption. For instance, rising medical costs, the absence of medical insurance system in rural areas, the pressure of higher tuitions for higher education made MPC decline continuously. Short-term dynamic adjustment enabled the rural households to derail from the original equilibrium relationship between the expenditure and the income, and a new equilibrium relationship was thus formed.In terms of income category, the increase in permanent income, temporary income will pick up consumption of rural households. Permanent income exerts a far greater influence on consumption of rural households than the temporary income. The increase in salary income, operational income, property income, transfer income of rural residents will give catalyst to household consumption; comparatively, operational income exerts a greater influence on household consumption than the other three incomes.(2) A sound social security is supposed to greatly reduce the future healthcare and medical expenditure for rural residents; thus increasing the anticipated consumption of consumers and promoting the consumption of rural households. However, as the social security coverage in our country is relatively narrow, social securities only play a limited role in spurring the consumption of rural households.(3) China’s policy of financial support for agriculture shows strong output tendency in the course of implementation. The agricultural fiscal expenditure of China significantly boosts the gross output in the rural areas; however its influence on rural household consumption is comparatively weak. In terms of subdivided category, different kinds of agricultural fiscal expenditures exert different influences on the consumption of rural households. Funds for public utilities, poverty relief and technology have positive effects in stimulating the consumption of rural households; whereas the expenditure on agricultural capital construction generates a negative effect on the consumption of rural households. (4) Expansionary monetary policy is negatively related with rural household consumption. More money supply results in immediate increase of the consumption. The rising of interest rate will produce a negative, though weak effect on the rural household consumption by reducing the immediate consumption.3. Stimulating rural household consumption in China requires policy support as well as an enduring effective systemRural household consumption is influenced by various factors. Therefore, releasing the potential of rural household consumption requires policy support. It is difficult to basically address insufficient rural household consumption in China singly by short-term policy adjustment to result in income increase of rural residents. It is also required to establish a long-term effective system for income increase of rural residents; set up various guarantee systems for rural residents and areas; pump more investment in the infrastructure of rural areas; improve consumption credit market in rural areas. All these are intended to make rural residents get richer, to encourage them to consume and help them know where to use their money.Firstly, it is required to promote constant and stable income increase of rural residents and stabilize income expectation. It is required to break the bottleneck for the increase of operational income of rural households, reduce the natural and market risks of agricultural production, and increase permanent income of rural residents. It is required to improve the literacy and capabilities of rural residents, stabilize their salary income, and increase the percentage of property income and transfer income of rural residents. Besides, it is also required to establish a stable and harmonious social system.Secondly, it is required to strengthen the financial support to agriculture, optimize the structure of financial support to agriculture, and improve the environment for household consumption. It is also needed to gradually improve the credit market for household consumption in rural areas, and eliminate the liquidity constraints for the rural residents. Ⅲ. Characteristics and New Methods(1) Under many research angles of views, this paper innovatively constructs a more general theoretic framework of rural household consumption in China, and search the main factors affect rural household consumption, provide analysis premise for hypothesis condition of empirical study, and this is an attempting development to existing theoretic study of household consumption.(2) This paper innovatively construct econometric model of China’s rural household consumption fluctuation with dynamic GMM method,Co-integration and VAR etc. time series modeling technique, empirically studies the influence of various macroeconomic variables such as income, social security, financial expenditures for agriculture and monetary policy etc. on rural household consumption, and this is an innovative explore to existing empirical study.(3) This paper brings forward the policy advice that can effectively stimulate rural household consumption in china. it is required to stabilize income and expenditure expectation. and improve the environment for household consumption. It is also needed to gradually improve the credit market for household consumption in rural areas, and eliminate the liquidity constraints for the rural residents.更多还原