【作者】 肖培灵；

【导师】 马军海；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 可持续发展是一种新型的发展战略理念,涉及自然科学与社会科学众多领域。改革开放以来,山东省潍坊市的经济、社会发展取得了巨大进步。如何评价经济和社会发展成果、不同行业的发展水平以及协调发展能力对制定该城市未来的可持续发展规划来说是一项重要课题。本文在国内外相关领域研究成果的基础上,运用管理学理论、动态经济学理论、可持续发展理论、系统评价理论和复杂网络理论,对影响潍坊市可持续发展能力的交通网络以及农产品产量预测进行了研究;建立了潍坊市可持续发展评价模型,剖析了当前经济、社会运行状态,对潍坊市可持续发展状况做出较为科学的评价,并对制约该地区经济、社会进一步发展的因素做出分析,以期为该地区相关政策的制定提供充分的理论依据和定量模型支撑。本文的主要研究内容及创新点如下:1.基于可持续发展的理念,研究了潍坊市公交网络现状,从网络规划的视角分析潍坊及其周边四城市公交网络的分布状况,并从一般运筹学的角度提出优化算法;2.依据灰色预测理论建立支持向量基组合模型,对潍坊市农产品产量进行预测,预测结果为潍坊市可持续发展战略的制定提供了更为可靠的理论依据。3.对可持续发展评价指标体系的构建模式以及国内外可持续发展评价指标体系的研究现状进行综述分析,根据可持续发展评价指标体系的选取原则并结合潍坊市的实际情况,建立了基于社会-经济-环境模式的区域可持续发展评价指标体系;4.构建了基于数据包络分析方法的潍坊市可持续发展评价模型,对该地区的经济、社会、环境等发展现状进行客观评价,分析制约当地可持续发展的因素,为制定相关政策提供理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The sustainable development is a kind of view of development strategy, it involves in natural science field and social science field. Since the reform and open policy, great progress has been made in economy and society in Weifang of Shandong province, yet how to evaluate results of economic and social and different industry development is one of the critical issues at present. Transit network and forcasting of the output of farm product that has important effect on sustainable development ability of Weifang have been studied according to the theory of management, dynamic economics, sustainable development, synthetic appraisal and complex network based on domestic and foreign research. By the sustainable development appraisal model of Weifang, analysis on current economic and society running status and sustainable development condition of this area is carried, and the factors that restricts the further development of this area is conducted. In this thesis, Theory and model basis are expected to be made for policy making.The main content and innovative points are as follows:1.Situation of transit network of Weifang and other four cities has been studied according to a perspective of network programming on the view of sustainable development, and the optimization method based on OR is proposed.2.A GM-SVR model based on Grey forecasting theory is set up to forecast the output of agricultural products of Weifang, and the accurate results offers more reliable data for policy making.3.Mainly from two aspects, the construction model, and the situation of domestic and foreign sustainable development research, to discuss the sustainable development appraisal index. The model of sustainable development appraisal index based on the mode of Society-Economy-Environment according to the principle of sustainable development appraisal and the actual situation of Weifang.4.Sustainable development appraisal model of Weifang has been set up based on the method of DEA, and the evaluation on development situation of weifang is carried on. Besides, what restricts the sustainable development is also considered, and thus provides theoretical support for policy making.更多还原