【作者】 罗汉武；

【导师】 齐二石；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 在“十一五”国民经济发展规划中,中国政府提出了节能降耗和污染物减排的具体目标,这是当前中国构建社会主义和谐社会的一个重要举措。然而遗憾的是,但从几年的效果来看,上述节能降耗和污染物减排目标未能实现。这反映了一个重要问题,中国尚未建立有效的能源与经济、环境协调发展的机制和体制。而这一机制是中国在保持良好经济发展态势的同时实现能源和环境目标的重要保障。能源与经济、环境协调发展机制的不完善并非中国所独有的发展难题,而是世界各国普遍面临的难题。不过,作为世界最大的发展中国家,该问题在中国表现得更加突出。本文综合运用经济学、系统工程、计量经济学、能源经济学等多学科的理论与分析方法,尝试着综合运用多种定量方法,系统地、全面地对能源与经济、环境协调发展水平进行评价,对于中国能源经济理论的发展是一个必要的补充,对能源与经济、环境协调发展的状况以及影响因素的准确评价,为制定中国能源与经济、环境协调发展战略提供基本依据,对于实现中国能源的可持续发展、资源永续利用,缓解环境压力,实现小康社会及现代化目标,建设节约型社会、和谐社会和生态文明都具有重要的现实意义,同时本文的研究对于各省市的能源问题具有指导意义。基于以上理论,本文的主要工作有:1、提出煤炭峰值理论及在河南省的实际应用,运用Logistic增长曲线模型、Gaussian曲线模型对河南煤炭产量的峰值进行预测,根据logistic增长曲线模型预测出的煤炭产量峰值,并结合前文对煤炭消费需求的预测,估算出煤炭的净输入趋势,这对河南省的自身发展是一个非常大的约束,另一方面也将对全国的煤炭市场造成巨大的压力。2、通过引入外部成本的概念,试图从环境、人力资本等角度更加全面的考察各种不同的能源运输方式的成本,考虑送受端发电外部成本差异及输送中能源损耗因素,在经济成本和外部成本基础上得到各种输送方式的社会总成本,得出未来应该兴建从火电和水电送端分别向河南修建输电线路的结论。3、为了更好的度量能源价格上涨,对一般价格水平的影响,我们构建投入产出价格影响模型,计算出这些能源价格上涨对其他商品成本产生的影响,进而计算出对一系列商品价格产生的连锁反应,并能模拟出对一般价格水平的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the "Eleventh Five-Year" plan for national economic development, Chinese government set energy saving and pollutants emission reduction as a target, which is currently measure to building a harmonious society. Unfortunately, judging from the effect of a few years, the target did not materialize. So ,china has yet to establish an effective Mechanism of energy ,economic, and environmental.But,this mechanism is an important guarantee of chinese economic development to maintain good posture at the same time to achieve the objectives of energy and environment.The coordinated development of energy,economy and environment is not unique to China, but to the world . However, as the world’s largest developing countries, the problem have become more prominent.Using economics, engineering, econometrics, energy economics and the theory of multi-disciplinary analysis,try to make coordinated development evaluation in energy,economic environmen,which is a necessary complement to the energy ,economy,and environment, as well as the coordination of the development of an accurate evaluation of the impact factors for the development of Chinese energy , economy and environmen. the coordinated development of the strategic environment to provide the basis for the realization of Chinese energy sustainable development, sustainable use of resources to ease the pressure on the environment.To achieve well-off society and modernization goals, building a conservation-minded society, a harmonious social and ecological civilization is an important practical significance, at the same time the research for this paper, the various provinces and cities of guiding significance for the energy issue.Based on the above theory, the main work of this article1.This paper first proposed coal peak of theory and practical application in Henan Province, the use of Logistic growth curve model, Gaussian curve model to the peak of coal production in Henan Province to predict, according to logistic growth curve model to predict the peak of coal production, combined with earlier consumption of coal demand, can estimate the trend of a net importer of coal, which is the self-development in Henan Province is a very big constraint, on the other hand, the country’s coal market will be enormous pressure.2.By introducing the concept of external costs, trying to environment, human capital in terms of a more comprehensive study of various modes of transport energy costs, sent by the client to consider the external costs of power generation and transmission of the difference in energy loss factor in the economic costs and external Based on the cost of various transportation modes of the total cost of the community, come to the future construction of thermal power and hydropower from the client to send to the construction of transmission lines in Henan conclusions.3.In order to better measure of energy prices, the general price level, we construct the input-output price model to calculate these higher energy prices on other commodities the cost impact, and then calculate a series of commodity prices knock-on effect, and to simulate the impact of the general price level.更多还原