【作者】 杨振林；

【导师】 刘金兰；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 作为安全生产工作的重要组成部分之一,经过长期不懈的努力,我国特种设备安全监察工作取得了显著的成效,重特大事故得到了有效的遏制,事故总体数量得到了有效的控制。然而,至今我国特种设备的事故发生率仍是世界发达国家的5～10倍,特种设备安全形势依然严峻。为了进一步提高特种设备安全监察工作的有效性,实现“保安全、促发展”的工作目标,必须强化安全管理的理论研究,通过科技进步,依靠监管理念、监管机制、监管手段的创新,全面提升特种设备安全监察工作的科学管理水平。为此,本研究将安全系统工程和风险管理理论全面引入特种设备安全监察工作,按照安全生产风险管理的原理、程序和方法,分别就特种设备重大危险源辨识、风险评价、风险控制等主要环节进行了全面、系统的研究。首先,本文介绍了国内外重大危险源辨识的研究现状,就现行重大危险源辨识标准的若干问题进行了探讨,提出了符合特种设备特点的重大危险源辨识数学模型,对相关辨识基数、辨识因子、辨识指数及辨识阈值进行了明确的界定,进而开创性地完成了以半定量方法为基础的特种设备重大危险源辨识标准的基本框架,为规范、指导特种设备重大危险源的辨识行为提供了具有较强实用性和可操作性的技术法规保障。其次,本文利用层次分析法(AHP)兼顾定性分析的科学性和定量分析的准确性、将决策者对复杂系统的决策思维过程模型化、数量化的特点,借助于这一有效的系统分析数学工具,对特种设备风险评价体系进行了深入的分析、研究,构建了特种设备风险评价的层次结构模型及相关数学模型,并以此为基础,结合风险可接受准则,将特种设备风险划分为五个级别,实现了风险分析的层次化、风险程度的数值化、风险分级的定量化,为规范、指导分类监管,提高特种设备安全监察工作的有效性做出了有益的探索。同时,本文结合特种设备安全管理工作实际,通过对历年来特种设备事故统计数据及原因分析的综合研究,深入剖析了特种设备事故的因果关系,提出符合特种设备事故特点的事故因果连锁模型,并就特种设备的风险防范、事故预防及应急管理进行较为深入地阐述,从而为科学有效地开展特种设备的风险控制提供了基础性的理论保证和实践指导。更多还原

【Abstract】 Qua one of the important composing parts of the production safety, safety supervision of special equipment in China has made remarkable achievements by long-term unremitting efforts. As the symbol of the achievements, serious or outsize production safety accidents have been kept within limits effectively, and the total number of the production safety accidents has been controlled effectively. But so far, the domestic accident ratio of special equipment is still 5 to 10 times higher than that in the developed countries in the world. Consequently, the domestic safety situation of special equipment is still austere. In order to enhance the validity of the safety supervision so that the objectives of pledging safety and accelerated development could be realized, the theory research on the safety management of special equipment must be strengthened. Therefore, the theories on safety system engineering and risk management have been introduced into the safety supervision of special equipment. According to the principium, program and method of the risk management, the identification of major hazard, the risk evaluation and the risk control has been studied systemically in this article.The article began with an introduction on current overseas and domestic research status on major hazard identification, and discussed issues related to the identifying standards. Applying semi-ration method, based on the design of identifying mathematics model as well as the affirmance of identifying radix, modulus, index and threshold value, the basic frame of the identifying standard of special equipment’s major hazard is completed creatively. As technical statute, the identifying standard is able to provide practical and operational criteria and guidance for actual identifying behaviors of special equipment’s major hazard.Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) possesses synchronously the scientificalness of qualitative analysis and the veracity of quantitative analysis, and enables the decision-maker to analyse in models and quantification methods. Utilizing the specialty of AHP, and recurring to AHP as an effective systems analysis mathematics tool, the risk evaluation system of special equipment has been studied systemically by the author. The risk evaluation hierarchy model and the evaluating mathematics models in accordance with special equipment’s characteristics have been brought forward. Based upon the evaluating method, combining with the risk acceptable rule, the special equipment’s risks are classified into five grades. The research has been very instrumental in providing practical criteria and guidance for special equipment’s classified supervision and management.In the mean while, this article also made in-depth research and analysis on the accident-causing theory of special equipment based on the collected statistic data as well as the causes derived from the analysis of accidents of special equipment in the previous years. And the accident’s cause and effect linkage model of special equipment is therefore suggested and completed. The Risk Avoidance, Accident Prevention and Emergency Management on special equipment are expatiated thoroughly in this study, so as to provide a fundamental theory and a practice guidance to special equipment’s safety supervision and risk control.更多还原