【作者】 付聪；

【导师】 尹贻林；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 工程管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 城市燃气失效事故的发生往往伴随火灾、爆炸等严重灾害,造成人员的伤亡和重大财产损失。因此,本论文以城市燃气输配管网系统作为危机管理的研究对象,基于危机管理的研究框架,对城市燃气输配管网系统危机管理中的风险辨识、风险分析与评价、事故后果分析、预警及应急几个环节研究中存在的不足进行改善和创新研究。1.在燃气管网的风险研究中,提出了将故障树分析(FTA)法,管道风险指数评价法及基于风险的检测(RBI)三个方法组合应用,实现了包含风险辨识——风险分析——风险评价的一套完整的风险评估方法体系。第一,采用故障树分析(FTA),实现了对燃气管网系统的完整的危险辨识,第二,采用管道风险指数评价法完成风险评价的定量分析。第三,通过采用基于风险的检测(RBI)方法完成了燃气管网失效率和失效后果的分析和定量评价,实现了城市燃气管网系统的风险分级。2.通过分析不同模式下气体泄漏、扩散等模型的适用范围,结合城市燃气输配管网系统的特点,首先确定了泄漏、扩散、火灾及爆炸模型,形成了泄漏事故后果系统分析组合模型框架。其次根据燃气输配管网的实际特性,有效简化了模型,对城市燃气输配管网系统泄漏后果进行分析,建立了失效事故预测预警模型,实现了预测事故伤亡范围及后果分析,实现了预警分级与应急分级的相互关联。3.采用MATLAB,VC++语言编辑开发了应用程序,通过与ARCGIS数据平台的接口编辑,开发了基于GIS(地评价理信息系统)的城市燃气输配管网事故分析功能模块。借助GIS数据平台系统的可视化功能实现了燃气泄漏点的警戒区域的划分,实现了城市燃气输配管网系统失效的应急管理中事故后果预测预警实时分析与应急预案启动的联动功能,为采取有效的应急措施提供了决策支持。提出了城市燃气事故应急指挥平台的概念框架设想。4.将应急救援能力与应急预案两方面的指标相结合,确定了城市燃气输配管网的应急能力评价指标体系,采用G1法确定指标权重,包含了应急管理、应急预案、应急救援能力、应急平台等重要指标,评价结果能准确地反映了各项指标的所处水平,为系统、完整的评价应急能力提供了科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The failure of urban gas pipeline always cause fire disaster and explosion, the accident can threaten people and property in the vicinity of the failure location. It is important and necessary to study the failure crisis of urban gas pipeline. Theories and methodologies of risk analysis, early warning and emergency management are integrated under the structure of crisis management theory. Through reviewing deficiency of the researches on urban gas pipeline system in these three fields, this dissertation mainly studied the failure of urban gas pipeline system Based on the crisis management theory.1. In the research on risk of pipeline. Firstly, using the FTA (fault tree analysis) to implement a systemically risk identification of urban gas pipeline. Second, restructuring the pipeline risk index system to improve the analysis and assessment of risk more efficiency and applicable for gas pipeline system. Then, combining the fault probability and effects analysis by RBI (risk based inspection) method to quantitative risk evaluation and risk ranking. A risk assessment system is constructed by integrating this three-step method. It provides an entire pipeline risk assessment with identification, analysis, evaluation and ranking.2. On the base of studies on applicable scope for gas leakage and diffusion models in gas pipeline, models of failure consequence analysis, including hole leakage, Gaussian diffusion, jet fire and explosion, are selected just for fault of gas pipeline. Then, according to the characters of gas pipeline, simplified models are proposed. Based on them, a failure forecast warning model is obtained. The as damage scope and fatalities is calculated and warning ranking is defined consistent to initiate ranking in gas pipeline emergency plan.3. Programs based on GIS are developed with failure forecast warning model via VC++ programming and MATLAB. A function module of fault consequence analysis is obtained. With the advantages of visualization in GIS, the warning area of gas leakage location can be divisional, and integrated emergency response is realized. More scientific decisions and effective supports can be acquired by this function. A conceptual framework of gas pipeline emergency platform is proposed based on GIS.4. Indexes of emergency capability assessment are selected and determine weights by G1 method. Two major kinds of emergency indexes, plan and rescue are combined in this system that makes the result more comprehensive and scientific.更多还原