【作者】 王元明；

【导师】 赵道致；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 工业工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 项目的快速灵活反应能力,资源的优化组合能力,学习能力、探索能力等等,都是新经济环境中的关键的成功因素。但传统的项目管理问题,质量事故、工期拖延、费用超支、工程索赔等依然很严重。主要原因是,以项目为合作核心、一次性的定制化生产方式使得项目多方参与者之间以对抗性的短期合作关系出现。因此,供应链环境下的项目集成管理应运而生。但是这种生产组织模式下使得项目风险的发生增加了联动性,存在严重风险的传递问题。一个环节的风险可能随着项目的交付成果沿着供应链的渠道而传递到相关企业中,扩大风险的波及范围,增加风险控制的难度,从而影响整个项目的绩效。本文的目的就在于揭示这种风险传递的动态规律,同时提出相应的风险管理对策。结合供应链管理和项目特性提出了项目型供应链的概念及其风险管理要素特征。包括风险源的变化、风险渠道、风险阀值的变化、企业抗风险能力、抗风险努力程度等。在形式上对项目供应链的风险传递过程做了定性的描述。考虑项目供应链中的风险传递方式,将其分为单向传递和反馈式传递两种。分别考虑以项目管理中的两大目标,项目工期和项目质量为代表说明了这两类风险传递的动态过程。发现,在项目单向传递的过程中,主要的可控参数在于环节的风险阀值。因此,本文提出了基于风险储备思想的优化分配。结果表明,将风险储备较多的分配在项目前期工作中可以有效的降低整个项目的风险。在项目供应链反馈式风险传递中,主要的问题在于使这种反馈有效化。因此本文提出了模块化的管理思想,将项目任务划分为若干个内部高度关联、存在有效反馈,而外部相对独立的模块,以降低整个项目中的无效迭代,将不确定性更多的限制在模块内部,并通过统计知识证明了模块化的价值所在。通过将监控机制引入到项目的一次性合作过程中来,使一次性合作成为多阶段的激励过程,明确了项目管理者对于各合作方的抗风险努力程度的控制方向。最后还证明了,应当将激励的重点放在抗风险能力较强的环节,这样有利于项目整体利益的改善。更多还原

【Abstract】 Many abilities of project are the key successful factors under the new economicenvironment, such as quick response ability, resource optimum combination ability,learning ability, forward-looking exploration ability and so on. But the traditionalproblems of project management (ex, quality accident, duration dragging, expenseoverspending, and engineering claim) are still very serious, and the primary cause isproject participants share an oppositional and short-term relationship to each otherwhich results by one-off custom-made production mode cored by project.Consequently, project integration management emerges as the times require under thesupply chain circumstance. But this production organization mode increases thelinkage of project risk and brings serious risk transmission problem. The risk of onelink may transmit with the project deliverable to the related enterprises in the supplychain, so affection scope of risk is expanded and the difficulty of risk control is addedand the entire project performance is affected. The goal of this paper is to discover thedynamic rule of risk transmission and propose the corresponding risk managementcountermeasure.With the combination of supply chain management and project character, thispaper presents the concept of project supply chain and the characters of riskmanagement factors which include the change of risk source, risk channel, the changeof risk valve value, anti-risk ability, effort level of anti-risk and so on. And this paperformally gives a qualitative description of risk transmission process in project supplychain.Considering the transmission mode, the risk transmission in project supply chaincan be divided into two kinds: one-way transmission and feedback transmission. Thedynamic process of these two kinds risk transmission can be illuminated by projectduration and project quality which are the two main goals in project management. Wefind that, in the one-way transmission, risk valve value is the maincontrollableparameter.Therefore, the paper proposes the optimized distribution of risk reserve. It turns outthat assigning more risk reserve in the initial work can reduce the risk of entire projecteffectively, that means the later performance of a project is determined by the qualityof initial planning work. And in the feedback transmission, making sure the feedbackeffective is essential. So this paper presents modularization method, which means dividing the project into many modules which has high interior relation and effectivefeedback but has relative exterior independence. It can reduce the invalid iteration inthe entire project and keep more uncertainty within the module, and statisticalknowledge can prove the value of modularization.With introducing monitoring mechanism into one-off cooperation process,one-off cooperation becomes multi-stage incentive process and project manager canbe clear about how to control the anti-risk effort of each participant. And at last thispaper demonstrates that it would be helpful to the improvement of overall benefit iffocusing incentive on the link which has high anti-risk ability.更多还原