【作者】 高琴；

【导师】 马军海；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 经济全球化时代的到来,使我国面临着千载难逢的机遇和挑战。全球化时代的世界经济和贸易活动产生了对航运的新需求,特别是加入世贸组织(WTO)后,我国对外开放进一步扩大,对外贸易将会快速增长,港口经济的发展也将面临着更多的机遇。同时,随着三十年的改革开放不断深入和进出口贸易的不断发展,港口经济作为我国沿海区域出现的一种新兴经济模式正在快速有力地发展着。而集装箱运输作为一种新的运输方式,适应了全球经济一体化的发展要求,适应了杂货运输标准化、高效率、信息化的要求,能够为全球经济一体化提供必要的运输服务。因此,深入研究港口产业集群的复杂性,从而有效地协调港口产业集群内部企业之间的关系,是一个十分具有现实意义的问题。在此背景下,本文创新性地提出借助于生态学中关于各种种间关系的相关理论,在反映种间关系的基本模型-Lotka-Volterra模型的基础上加以改进和创新,建立了能够反映港口产业集群内部企业之间关系的非线性模型,并对模型的复杂性进行了深入细致的分析,以期为此类问题的研究提供方法和思路。本文主要完成了以下工作:1、研究了生态学中的共生理论以及港务集团与其所在港区的集装箱码头公司之间的关系,建立了反映港务集团与码头公司之间依托型互利共生关系的非线性模型,以及更为符合实际的时滞模型。利用非线性动力学的理论和方法分析了模型的平衡态和稳定性,并通过数值模拟进行了验证,为依托型互利共生模式下的产业集群实现区域的规模经济进行了理论阐述。2、介绍了竞争理论的发展演化过程,从生态学的角度分析了企业之间的竞争,引出生态位的概念。在此基础上建立了反映集装箱码头公司之间竞合关系的非线性模型,同样分无时滞和有时滞两种情况,利用非线性动力学的理论和方法,研究了模型的稳定性和Hopf分岔情况,并通过数值模拟进行了验证,为集装箱港口企业间探索如何实现既有竞争又有合作的经营态势提供了理论依据。3、在前两部分的基础上进一步分析了港务集团与两个码头公司之间的复杂关系,建立了反映它们之间关系的非线性竞合-共生时滞模型,研究了模型的稳定性,给出了对时滞的估计,并通过数值模拟进行了验证,最后给出了分析结果所对应的实际意义,为港口产业集群实现和谐发展提供了一定的理论支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 The coming of the economic globalization time has brought very rare opportunities, as well as challenges to our country. The world economy and international trade in globalization time bring new demand to shipping, especially after the World Tourism Organization (WTO) accession, with the extending of the open policy, the international trade will increase rapidly. At the same time, with the continuously penetration of the 30 years’reforming and open policy, and the continuously development of the international trade, port economy is developing fleetly and effectively as a new economic mode in the coastland of our country. While as a new traffic mode, containerized traffic fits the demand of economic globalization and the standardization, high efficiency and informationization for break bulk transport, and can provide necessary traffic service. So it has much practical meaning to study the complexity of port industrial clusters in-depth, sequentially to harmonize the interior relation effectually among enterprises.With this background, this dissertation brings forward innovatively to recur to the correlative theory about various interspecific relationships in ecology, bases on the basic Lotka-Volterra model which reflects the interspecific relationship and adds some improvement and innovation, constitutes the nonlinear models which reflect the interior relation among enterprises in port industrial clusters, analyses the complexity of the models. The main content of this dissertation is as follows:First, the symbiosis theory and the relationship between the port group and a container terminal company are studied and the nonlinear model reflects the supporting mutualism relation is established, as well as the delay model. By means of the nonlinear dynamic theory and method, the equilibrium and stability of the models are investigated and the numerical simulations validate the conclusion. It gives the theoretically expatiation for the realization of territorial scale economy of industrial clusters in supporting mutualism mode.Second, the evolution process of the competition theory is introduced and the competition between container terminals companies is investigated from the ecological point, the conception of niche is educed. Base on these, the nonlinear models reflect the co-opetition relation between container terminal companies are established, which are also classified as no-delay and delay models. By means of the nonlinear dynamic theory and method, the stability and Hopf bifurcation of the models are studied and the numerical simulations are given, which provide the theoretically warranty for the realization of co-opetition between container port companies.Third, the complex relationship between the port group and two container terminal companies are investigated based on the first two parts, a nonlinear co-opetition-symbiosis delay model is established, the stability of the model is studied, the estimation of delay and the numerical simulations are given also. The practical meaning is analyzed and the theoretical sustainment is provided for the harmonious development of port industrial clusters.更多还原