【作者】 丁志宏；

【导师】 冯平；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 工程管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 南水北调西线一期工程是一项从长江上游支流调水入黄河上游的跨流域调水重大工程,对其水源系统的径流特征及供水风险问题进行深入和系统的研究,具有非常重要的现实意义。本文以系统工程方法论为指导,从不同的角度,在时间和空间两个维度上对南水北调西线一期工程水源系统的径流特征和供水风险问题进行了深入细致的研究,具体内容总结如下: (1)运用Kendall秩次检验法、R/S分析法、条件概率分析法和Markov过程分析法等诸多方法对调水河流年径流量时序变化的趋势性、持续性、连丰连枯概率、一步转移概率、极限概率和平均重现时间等演化特征进行了深入分析。(2)在分析小波变换方法不足之处的基础上,应用EMD方法对调水河流年径流量时序的波动特征进行了多时间尺度研究并探讨了其波动周期的物理背景。(3)针对河川径流变化所具有的复杂多时间尺度性和其间变化关系的不确定性,为更深入地研究调水河流之间径流变化关系的不确定性,将EMD方法和SPA方法相结合,对南水北调西线一期工程调水河流之间径流变化关系的不确定性在多个时间尺度上予以深刻地揭示。(4)在分析现有二维联合分布模型不足之处的基础上,应用Copula方法构建了调水区径流之间及其与黄河上游来水之间的二维联合分布模型,具体地对各调水河流之间及其与黄河上游之间的径流丰枯遭遇性进行了深入研究,给出了调水河流之间利于补偿调度的频率以及西线工程利于调水到黄河的频率。(5)在对调水枢纽供水风险影响因素进行深入识别和分析的基础上,建立了包括供水风险率和可靠性、供水恢复性、事故周期等指标在内的枢纽供水风险评价指标体系,构建了枢纽供水风险分析模型;然后,基于随机法生成的月径流量,应用蒙特卡洛方法对西线一期工程各调水枢纽的供水风险进行了研究,给出了具体的风险评价指标值。总之,南水北调西线一期工程调水河流径流变化的趋势性并不显著,工程充分发挥效益和实现补偿调度的机会是较大的,枢纽的供水效率和效益是有保证的。更多还原

【Abstract】 First Phase Project of Western Route of South to North Water Transfer Project is a great water transfer project that transfers water resources from upper branches of the Yangtze River to upper reach of the Yellow River, and it bears great important practical significance to carry thorough and systematic research on runoff characteristic and supply risk of the water resources source system. Guided by systematic engineering methodology, this dissertation carried deep and aborative research on the runoff characteristic and supply risk problem on temporal and spatial dimensions from different points of view, and the research contents can be summarized as following:(1) Such methods as Kendall test method, R/S method, conditional probabilitymethod and Markov process method are proposed and applied to analyze thoroughly such change characteristics of the rivers as trend, durative, continuous rich and poor probabilities, one-step transition probabilities, limit probabilities and average recurrence time, etc.(2) Based on analyzing problems of wavelet transformation method, the annual runoff time series at the project area are decomposed into multiple time-scale series with EMD method and the physical backgrounds of each IMF fluctuation periods are discussed(3) Through analyzing complicated multiple time-scale and uncertainty characteristics of runoff time series fluctuation, to analyze deeply fluctuation relationships of annual runoff time series between rivers, EMD and SPA methods are combined to thoroughly display fluctuation uncertainty between the rivers at the project area on different time-scale.(4) Based on analyzing the shortages of current common models for two-dimension joint distribution, Copula method is presented and applied to construct two-dimension joint distribution model between rivers at the area and that between the rivers and the Yellow River, and then the encounter probabilities of rich-poor runoff between them are thoroughly analyzed and the probabilities that are favorable to make compensatory operation between the rivers at the project area and that favorable to transfer water resources to the Yellow River are presented.(5) Based on identification and analysis of influencing factors of water-supply risk analysis of the water transfer project, a risk assessment index system including such indexes as water-supply risk rate and reliability, recovery capacity, invalidation period is constructed, and water-supply risk analysis model of the project is presented, and then the risk is studied with Monte Carlo method based on monthly runoff series generated from stochastic simulation.In a word, the runoff change trends are unremarkable at the project area, the opportunities that the project can operate efficiently and implement compensatory operation are rather big and the water-supply efficiency and benefit of the water transfer project can be ensured.更多还原