【作者】 任凯；

【导师】 赵黎明；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 国内基础设施投资布局不合理、部门之间投资不均衡,存在低水平重复建设、资源投入损耗及资金浪费等现象,造成部分基础设施投资不足,严重制约了我国经济社会的发展,因此,基础设施投资需要科学、合理的决策,而合理决策需要科学理论的支持。在目前相关的文献研究中,都没有针对基础设施产品的特殊性提出完整的决策理论与方法。考虑到基础设施投资对国民经济的重要性,本文所选论题《基础设施投资决策系统理论与方法研究》具有重大的社会意义、经济意义及研究意义。本文首先对基础设施进行概念性综述,整合基础设施投资决策的理论基础,并在此基础上运用系统理论与方法对基础设施投资决策系统进行研究,建立整体系统框架。其次,在理论体系构建的基础上,构建基础设施投资宏观决策的系统动力学模型,针对基础设施投资微观决策行为,建立其在模糊环境下的多属性群决策模型。最后,针对微观决策行为中群体决策的个体偏好问题,进行个体偏好一致化研究,提出基础设施投资群体决策中个体评价一致化集结方法。本文主要有以下几个方面的创新:⑴本文结合支付意愿、消费者剩余理论、资源最优配置理论、外部性理论和无形效果理论等经济学理论,基于有限理性假设,建立基础设施投资的决策理论框架。⑵运用系统理论对基础设施投资决策进行系统界定与分析,探讨系统的演化过程,并通过对基础设施投资宏微观决策系统分析,建立基础设施投资决策系统框架。⑶提出基础设施投资的宏观决策层次与微观决策层次,构造基础设施投资决策的整体结构。同时对基础设施投资的宏观决策及微观决策模型与方法进行研究,构造基础设施投资宏观决策的系统动力学模型,及微观决策在模糊环境下的多属性群体决策模型。⑷运用模糊偏好理论对基础设施投资群体决策中的个体偏好一致性进行研究与探讨,通过模糊偏好集结方法,提出并解决群体决策中个体偏好的一致性问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 The arrangement of domestic infrastructure investment is unreasonable, in that there exists an inequality between different investing departments, low-level repeating constructions, attrition of resources, and waste of capital, which caused insufficiency in the investment of some areas of infrastructure construction. This severely impedes the development of our economy and society. Therefore, the investment in infrastructures should be supported by scientific, reasonable decisions, which are based on scientific theories. So far, as existing literature shows that no research has been done to provide theories and methods which are specific to infrastructure products. Since infrastructure investment is crucial and significant to national economy, the present dissertation, A Study on the System Theories and Methods of Infrastructure Investment Decision, has social, economical, and theoretical significance.The dissertation first reviews the definitions of infrastructures, integrates the theoretical basis of infrastructure investment decisions, and studies the infrastructure investment decision system on the basis of system theories and methods. Secondly, based on the theoretical system construction, a system dynamic model of infrastructure investment decision is constructed, and a multi-property decision model under fuzzy environments is designed for infrastructure micro decision behaviours. Lastly, for the problem of individual preference in infrastructure micro decision behaviours, a study of the conformity of individual preference is carried out, and a building-up method of conformity of individual evaluation in infrastructure investment group decision is proposed.Innovations presenting in the dissertation are as follow:⑴Based on theories in Economics, such as payment willing theory, theory of consumer surplus, theory of resource optimal allocation, externality theory and incorporeal effect theory, the paper sets up a framework for decision-making system of infrastructure investment.(2) Infrastructure investment decision is defined and analyzed by using system theories. And the process of system evolution is discussed. Moreover, a framework of infrastructure investment decision is built up, after the analysis of the micro and macro decision systems of infrastructure investment.(3) Micro and Macro levels of decision in infrastructure investment are proposed, and a holistic structure of infrastructure investment decision is constructed. Meanwhile, models and methods of the micro and macro decision in infrastructural investment are studied, and a system dynamic model of infrastructure investment macro decision is designed. Apart from that, a multi-property group decision model of micro decision under fuzzy environments is also constructed.(4) The conformity of individual preference in infrastructure investment group decision is studied and discussed by applying fuzzy preference theory, and ways of solving problems of individual preference in group decision is proposed also by using such theory.更多还原