【作者】 徐向广；

【导师】 冯平；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 水库群联合供水优化调度是一项庞大的、复杂的系统优化问题。本文根据滦河中下游地理、气候、水文和引滦供水地区社会经济特征,结合潘家口、大黑汀、桃林口三水库和天津、唐山、秦皇岛三市的实际情况,在系统科学和方法论的指导下,综合运用水文学、风险分析评估、模糊识别、数理统计等理论方法,对潘家口、大黑汀、桃林口水库引滦供水联合调度问题进行了分析研究。本文主要研究内容和成果如下:1、通过引滦水库多年实际来水,采用滑动平均法、坎德尔(Kendall)秩次相关检验方法,对引滦水库来水序列的趋势特征进行检验和分析。总的来说,各水库来水趋势都呈下降的趋势,尤其是90年代后,下降趋势明显。2、通过对滦河中下游潘、大、桃三水库联合供水情况的分析,分别在现状供水情况和将来南水北调通水后整体考虑水资源情况下,拟定了各种可供水情况下的潘、大、桃三水库联合供水调度方案,采用一种聚合分解算法对水库系统进行优化调度,最后通过动态规划法计算出各方案的调度结果。3、在引滦供水水库联合优化调度结果的基础上,将调度方案分为两类,即第一类为各方面用水需求都能满足的方案和第二类为不能完全满足各方面用水需求的方案。对于第一类,不需采用优选模型进行方案的评价和优选,对于第二类,采用模糊优选模型进行方案的评价和优选。4、在现有分水原则和联合优化供水调度条件下,采用幕景分析法对水库联合供水调度进行风险分析。从计算结果上可以看出,在不改变供水原则的情况下,供水缺水风险较大,但通过优化联合调度,供水缺水风险大大降低。5、在现状供水情况和南水北调通水后两种状态下,通过单独调度和联合优化调度后供水量的改变,对各市的效益变化进行分析,对受水区和行业的效益进行估算,提出合理的利益分配方案。6、在潘家口水库和桃林口水库来水分析的基础上,应用Copula方法计算两个水库来水的丰枯遭遇频率。采用频率法进行径流的丰枯划分,将两者之间的丰枯遭遇情形分为9种,并将这9种情形按照丰枯同步和丰枯异步两种类型分别计算出相应的遭遇频率。更多还原

【Abstract】 The optimal operation of joint water supply of reservoir group is a big and complicated system optimization problem. Based on the geography, climate and hydrology of middle-down streams of Luan River, the social and economic features of Luan River water-supplying areas, and the actual situation of three reservoirs of Panjiakou, Daheiting, and Taolinkou and three cities of Tianjin, Tangshan and Qinghuangdao, under the guidance of system science and methodology, with integrated application of the theoretical methods of hydrology, risk analysis evaluation, fuzzy recognition, and mathematic statistics, the joint operation of supplying water from Luanhe River by Panjiakou, Daheiting and Taolinkuo Reservoirs is analyzed and studied in this paper.1) Based on the annually actual inflow of reservoirs which divert water from Luan River, inflow series trend features of Luan River Diversion reservoirs have been verified and analyzed with sliding average method and Kendall rank correlation verification method. Generally, inflow of every reservoir is on the trend of decline, especially after 1990’s, declining trend is obvious.2) Through the analysis of joint water supply from three reservoirs of Panjiakou, Daheting and Taolinkou in the middle-down streams of Luan River, with the consideration of current water supply situation and water resources condition after diverting water from the South to the North, the joint water supply operation schemes of the three reservoirs under every water supply condition are studied out, reservoir system is optimized and operated through aggregation-decomposition algorithm,and finally the operation result of every scheme is analyzed by dynamic planning method.3) Based on the Luan River water diversion reservoir joint optimal operation result, the operation scheme is classified into two types. The first type is the scheme that could meet water demands of all sides, and the second type is the scheme that could not meet the water demands of all sides. For the first type, optimization model need not to be applied for the evaluation and selection of scheme, and for the second type, fuzzy optimization model need to be applied for the evaluation and selection of scheme.4) Under the current water allocation principle and the condition of joint optimal water supply operation, the scenarios analysis method is applied to make risk analysis of reservoir joint water supply operation. From the calculation result, under the condition of not changing water supply principle, the risk of water deficiency during water supply is high, but, the risk of water deficiency during water supply decreases greatly through optimal joint operation.5) Under the two states of current water supply and water supply after South-to-North Water Transfer Project, through the change of water supply quantity after independent operation and joint optimal operation, benefit variation of every city is analyzed, the benefit of water-receiving areas and industries is estimated, and the rational benefit distribution scheme is brought forward.6) Based on the inflow analysis of Panjiakou Reservoir and Taolinkou Reservoir, Copula method is adopted to calculate the encounter frequency of wetness and dryness of two reservoirs’inflow. The frequency method is applied to divide the wetness and dryness of the runoff. The encounter between wetness and dryness are divided into 9 types of states, and the corresponding encounter frequencies under 9 types of states are respectively calculated according synchronous wetness-dryness and asynchronous wetness-dryness.更多还原