【作者】 吴雄周；

【导师】 曾福生；

【作者基本信息】 湖南农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 十六届三中全会提出统筹城乡发展战略后,湖南新农村建设和城镇化在稳步推进。要顺利推进湖南的新农村建设和城镇化,需要对其新农村建设和城镇化协调发展的程度有一个清醒的认识。只有这样,我们才可以比较准确地找到湖南新农村建设和城镇化发展过程中的具体问题,提出切实可行的解决措施。这正是本文研究的切入点。为此,我们首先简要探讨了新农村建设和城镇化的概念、特征、意义和目标,分析了湖南坚持新农村建设与城镇化两条腿走路的必然性、必要性,指出城乡协调发展的目标是城乡一体化。湖南新农村建设和城镇化的协调发展水平需要借助众多的指标才能评价,在科学性、操作性、系统性和可比性原则的要求下,构建了经济子系统、社会子系统、生活子系统和生态环境子系统的描述性指标体系,并精简提炼出评价性指标体系。介绍了给本文的指标赋权的两种方法(网络层次分析法和主成分分析法)的基本原理和操作步骤,指出用来衡量湖南新农村建设和城镇化协调发展状况的综合指标是城乡协调度。在查阅统计年鉴资料并进行实地调查的基础上,运用网络层次法确定了各项评价指标的权重。指标权重与各市、州的指标数据线性加权的结果就是该市、州2008年的城乡协调度绝对水平评价值。结果表明,湖南2008年14个市、州的城乡协调度呈现较为明显的区域非均衡发展局面,东部地区的协调度高于中西部地区的协调度。各个市、州协调度的高低为我们判断该市、州处于经济发展的哪个阶段提供了直接的、重要的参考依据。为了验证网络层次分析法分析结果的相对科学性,我们再运用主成分分析法,分析了湖南14个市、州2008年新农村建设和城镇化协调发展的情况。该方法的分析结果基本支持了网络分析法的实证分析结论。不仅如此,我们进一步对用主成分分析法得出的因子综合得分进行了聚类分析,聚类结果同样支持网络分析法的结论。上述分析只是横向层面的分析,要全面认识湖南新农村建设和城镇化协调发展的情况,需要做纵向分析。从数据的获取性要求下,我们只选择了城乡居民恩格尔系数之比、城乡居民人均收入之比、城乡二元劳动生产率之比、城乡居民居住面积之比、支农支出占一般财政预算支出比重共五个指标,以期最大程度地代表原来的评价性指标体系。指标选定后,我们首先分析了每个指标的历史演化趋势,作出了相应的演化趋势图,并做了简要的结果分析。许多指标的演化结果都表明,湖南的城乡差异总体趋势是不断扩大的,尽管在少数年份某些指标的演化朝城乡差异不断缩小的方向演化。显然,这种多指标纵向分析不能使我们形成一个对湖南城乡差异演化的总体认识。据此,我们继续运用网络层次分析法和主成分分析法,对湖南1978-2008年的城乡协调发展情况作了单指标纵向分析。该实证结果表明,无论从相对还是从绝对综合得分来看,湖南1978-2008年的城乡协调发展都不容乐观,湖南尚处于二元结构阶段。二元结构的长期存在显然不利于湖南经济、社会的发展,破除二元结构成为湖南经济社会发展的艰难任务。据此,必须认清湖南新农村建设和城镇化协调发展具有的优势和劣势,面临的机遇和挑战。韩国新村运动是破除二元结构的成功例子,经验值得借鉴；拉美过度城市化是失败的佐证,教训应该谨记。基于正反两方面的考虑,我们探讨了韩国新村运动和拉美过度城市化的过程,总结了成功的经验,思考了失败的原因和教训。湖南新农村建设和城镇化的协调发展要求我们既要认清现实,又要借鉴经验。应建立以工促农和以城带乡的长效机制、城乡生产要素自由流动机制、城乡公共产品均衡配置机制、城市群形成培育机制以及城乡户籍制度一元化推动机制,从经济发展、社会事业、生活状态、生态环境等多角度统筹兼顾,有的放矢,发扬农民的首创精神,发挥政府的主导作用,尽快破除城乡二元结构,早日实现城乡一体化的宏伟目标。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the Third Session of the Sixteenth Central Committee of the CPC (Communist Party of China), the balance of urban and rural development is proposed. So far, the construction of new socialist countryside of 14 cities and towns has been constantly advancing under the national instruction. In order to promote the new rural construction in Hunan successfully, we need to have a clear understanding of the degree of balancing the rural construction and urbanization. Only in this way, we can successfully find out the specific problems in the process of new rural construction and modernization in Hunan and propose practical solutions to these problems, which are the starting point and the way of thinking of this research. First, we briefly discuss the concept, characteristics, significance, and aim of new rural construction and modernization. Meanwhile, we analyze the inevitability and necessity of balancing the new rural construction and modernization in Hunan. The measurement of the degree of Hunan new rural construction and urbanization requires the help of a large number of indicators. In scientific, operational, systematic and comparable principle, we build a descriptive index system with the economic subsystem, social subsystem, life subsystems and ecological subsystems and extract the evaluation index system. The basic principles and steps of the two methods of index weighing (network-level analysis and principal components analysis) is introduced in the dissertation, proposing that the degree of urban and rural integration is the comprehensive indicator of the Hunan new rural construction and urbanization. In order to measure the integration of urban and rural areas in Hunan, we have access to a large amount of statistics materials and conduct field surveys to obtain the data of a variety of evaluation indexes. After the investigation of experts, the roles of evaluation indexes are determined by using network-level analysis. The result of the linear weighing of index weighing and index data of cities and towns is the horizontal measure value of the absolute level of the integration of urban and rural areas in 2008, which indicates the obvious unbalanced development of 14 cities and towns in Hunan, i.e., the integration degree of the eastern region is higher than the middle and western region. The difference of integration degree among cities and towns provide us with the direct and important data for reference with which we can judge the stages of the economic development of each city or state. To verify that the result from the network-level analysis is relatively scientific, we analyze the situation of new rural construction and urbanization in 14 cities and states in Hunan with principal components analysis, which shows that the two results are the same. Moreover, we further get the result of cluster analysis by analyzing the factor composite scores with the principal component analysis. The result also supports the conclusion of the network-level analysis. The above analysis is conducted from the horizontal level. We still need to do longitudinal analysis to have a overall understanding of Hunan new rural construction and urbanization. With the request of data accessibility, we only choose five indicators to have a maximized representation of the original evaluative index system., namely, the Engel coefficient of urban residents, rural income difference coefficient, urban binary labor productivity ratio, residents living area ratio, and the proportion of agriculture expending in general budget expenditure. After selecting the indicators, we first analyze the historical evolution of each indicator, then make the evolutionary trends and analyze the result briefly. The evolution results of the indicators suggest that the overall trend of the difference between urban and rural areas is enlarging, even though some of the indicators in certain years indicate the difference continue to shrink. Obviously, this longitudinal analysis of multiple indicators cannot make us know the overall situation of the evolution of the difference between urban and rural areas in Hunan. Accordingly, by using the network-level analysis and principal components analysis, we continue to do the longitudinal analysis of a single index of the integration of urban and rural areas in Hunan from 1978 to 2008. The empirical results show that the integration of urban and rural areas in Hunan from 1978 to 2008 is not so optimistic in terms of relative or absolute synthesis rates. Hunan is still at the stage of the dual structure. The long-term presence of the dual structure is clearly not conducive to the social and economic development of Hunan. It becomes the tough task in the process of the social and economic development of Hunan to eliminate the dual structure. The new village campaign in South Korean is a good example of eliminating the dual structure, which is worth learning. We should learn lessons from the failure of the over-urbanized Latin America. Based on the positive and negative aspects, we examined the process of both the new village campaign in South Korean and over-urbanization in Latin America, thus summing up the successful experience and analyzing the reasons of the failure. However, this is not enough. The more important is that we should recognize not only the advantages and disadvantages of the integration of new rural construction and urbanization in Hunan, but also the opportunities and challenges. By learning from experience and recognizing the reality, we should take measures from the multiple perspectives of economic development, social enterprise, living conditions and ecological environment. Apart from the specific measures, it is essential to build such integration mechanism as a long-term mechanism of promoting agriculture through industries, a mechanism of the free movement of production factors between urban and rural areas, the even distribution mechanism of public facilities between urban and rural areas, a unified mechanism of the formation of urban agglomeration and a mechanism for unifying the urban and rural household registration system. In short, the promotion of the integration of Hunan new rural construction and urbanization requires the initiative spirit of farmers and the leading role of government to eliminate the dual structure of urban and rural areas, making the grand goal of the integration of urban and rural areas come true early.更多还原