【作者】 曹希绅；

【导师】 雷涯邻；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学（北京） ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 在资源与环境问题日益严峻的形势下,地质工作受到国家越来越多的关注。地质工作的发展关键在于人才。目前,我国地质人才队伍还存在诸多问题,这些问题的存在,制约了我国地质工作质量和效率的提高,影响着我国资源与环境问题的有效解决。论文“中国地质人才需求预测及发展战略研究”,力求在总结前人研究成果的基础上,借助于现代预测理论、方法和人才战略理论,基于相关权威数据和实证资料展开系统研究。论文的研究工作与取得的成果如下:1、全面分析了我国地质人才的规模与结构现状,提出了我国地质人才队伍目前存在的诸多不足,包括一线骨干人才不足、高学历人才不足、复合型人才不足、国际化人才不足、拔尖创新人才不足、人才体制机制不合理等。2、系统分析了影响地质人才总量需求的诸多因素,研究提出了地质人才需求机理的框架模型,阐述了地质人才潜在需求与有效需求及其决定因素,运用人工神经网络模型以及灰色模型等对我国地质人才2015年、2020年、2030年的需求总量进行了预测,为制定地质人才发展战略奠定了基础。3、系统分析了影响地质人才结构需求的诸因素,结合有关调研和对未来环境变化的综合分析,对地质人才的一般结构——“硬结构”和素质结构——“软结构”进行了综合分析,为促进地质人才结构优化和提升核心竞争力提供了依据。4、在上述研究的基础上,系统提出了我国地质人才的战略构想,包括战略指导思想、战略目标和战略措施。论文取得的创新性成果包括:(1)运用人工神经网络模型、回归模型、幂函数模型和灰色模型对我国地质人才未来的需求总量进行了预测;(2)研究提出了地质人才的“5Q”素质模型,构建了地矿企业经理、地质工程师和地质科学家素质模型;(3)研究提出了地质人才三个发展阶段的战略目标、具体指标及战略措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the increasingly serious situation of resources and environmental issues, more and more national and social concern is attached to geological work. The key point of the development and revitalization of geological work lies in talents. By now, there are some problems in China’s geological talents personnel, which will negatively impact the quality and efficiency of geological work, thereby, affecting effective solution of our resources and environmental problems.On the basis of previous results, the paper acquired the following achievements by modern predication theories and talents strategic theories, with the help of related data and practical research.1. The paper analyzed the scale and the structure situation of China’s geological talents systematically, and pointed out some existing problems of China’s geological talents, including the insufficiency of talents in first line, with high education, compound fields, international background, innovation consciousness, and unreasonable talents system.2. The paper analyzed systematically the factors that affected the total demand on geological talents, proposed the frame model of demand mechanism of geological talents, explained the potential demands and effective demands on geological talents and its determinants, predicted the demand scales on geological talents in 2015, 2020, in 2030 by artificial neural network model and the gray models, which solidified the foundation of making up the development strategy on geological talents.3. The paper made a compound analysis on the general structure– hard structure, and qualification structure– soft structure of geological talents, with the combination of associated survey and future environmental changes, which provided the foundation to promote the structure optimization of geological talents and enhance the core competencies.4. On the basis of above-mentioned studies, the paper put forward the strategic blueprint of geological talents in China, including the strategic guiding ideology, strategic objectives and strategic measures.The innovative achievements included: (1) the prediction of the demand scales on geological talents by artificial neural network model and the gray models; (2) the proposal of "5Q" model on geological talents and the construction of qualification models on mine managers, engineers and geologists; (3) The proposal of the strategic blueprint of geological talents in China, including the strategic guiding ideology, strategic objectives and strategic measures更多还原