【作者】 郭艳红；

【导师】 肖荣阁；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学（北京） ， 资源产业经济， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 本文根据北京市城市发展战略的要求,立足于土地资源开发利用现状,将现状评价与未来预测相结合,对北京市土地资源承载力进行评价与分析,并提出土地资源可持续利用模式。土地问题已成为北京现代化建设的“瓶颈”,通过此项研究,为北京市建立稳定、协调、持续发展的人地关系提供科学的理论依据。本文在土地资源承载力和可持续利用研究及综述的基础上,综合运用国内外资源稀缺理论、可持续发展理论、区域产业布局理论、产权理论和世界城市等相关理论,采用定量和定性相结合的分析方法,以定量分析评价为主,对土地资源人口承载力、建设规模承载力、经济承载力、生态承载力、综合承载力及土地可持续利用模式等进行了分析研究。本文通过对北京市城市发展现状及土地开发利用情况的分析与研究,建立土地资源承载力综合评价指标体系,分别对北京市土地资源人口承载力、生态承载力、建设规模承载力、经济承载力进行评价。在土地资源人口承载力评价研究中,采用人均指标法分别对城市建设用地人口承载力和耕地农村人口承载力进行定量现状评价。在城市建设用地人口承载力中,采用人均指标法分区域进行评价,得出首都功能核心区人口处于超载状态;功能拓展区人口承载潜力有限等。在耕地农村人口承载力评价中,按人均粮食占有量400kg为评价标准,耕地承地力已基本满足北京农业人口粮食需求,并能满足一小部分城市人口的粮食需求。按照建设用地生态适宜量计算方法评价,北京市建设用地的生态适宜量略有盈余。通过土地资源建设规模承载力评价,认为北京市土地资源特别是城镇建设用地还有很大的建造潜力。同时,由于自然条件的不足和城市发展模式的缺陷,造成北京土地资源经济承载力与发达国家大都市相比存在一定差距。综合各单项承载力评价,采用“均方差决策法”得出北京市土地资源综合承载能力为较强级。最后,通过对北京市土地资源利用现状模式进行分析,提出了土地资源可持续利用战略模式,提出了提升土地承载力、实现土地资源可持续利用战略模式的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the development strategy of Beijing city and the statue of land development and utilization, this study combined the evaluation of present situation and analyses of the future forecast, evaluated and analyzed the carrying capacity of the land resource in Beijing, and proposed the Sustainable using pattern of land resource. Since the fact that the problem of land resource has become a“bottleneck”to the modernization construction of Beijing, the study provides scientific theory source for establishing a steady, coordinated and sustainable relationship between population and land using.This paper based on the carrying capacity of land resource and Sustainable Utilization of study and review. The advanced theories both at home and abroad, such as Resource Scarcity Theory , Sustainable Development Theory, Regional Industrial Distribution Theory , Property Theory and World City Theory and so on, are used to evaluate and analyze the land resource capability, including population capability, ecology capability, construction scale capability, ecology capability, comprehensive capability and the model of the sustainable utilization. Both quantitative and qualitative evaluating methods are employed, and the former is major.On the basis of analysis and research of the development status of Beijing City and land development and utilization, establishing the carrying capacity of land resources integrated evaluation index system, respectively evaluate the land resource population capability, ecology capability, construction scale capability, ecology capability. In the population capability evaluation part, the average per land area and food demand is adopted to evaluate the present situation of construction land and farmland capability in Beijing. Per capita index method used to evaluate the urban construction land population capability in the sub-region. The conclusion is that the existing population scale has exceeded the reasonable capability of the core area of the capital function, and there is some construction potentiality in functional development district. Land carrying capacity in the evaluation of the rural population, 400kg per capita share of grain for the evaluation criteria, the carrying capacity of land resources has been basically to meet the food needs of agricultural population in Beijing, and a small part of the urban population. According to the ecological suitability assessment of the amount calculated in Beijing, the amount of land for construction is small surplus. There is great construction potentiality in urban construction land resources. Because of the deficiency of natural condition and the city development policy, the land economic carrying capacity of Beijing has fallen behind the level of some development international cities. Comprehensive evaluation of each single capacity, the study used "decision-making analysis of variance were", obtained the overall carrying capacity of land resources in Beijing which is middle powerful. Through analysis the utilization of Land Resources in Beijing, the study put forward sustainable using of land resources and a series of suggestion to realize the strategy model of Sustainable using of land resources.更多还原