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基于生态足迹模型的矿区复合生态系统分析及动态预测

Analysis and Dynamic Prediction of Compound Ecosystem in Mining Area Based on Ecological Footprint Model

【作者】 薛建春

【导师】 白中科;

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学(北京) , 土地资源管理, 2010, 博士

【摘要】 矿区复合生态系统是一个多层次、多功能的复杂动态生态系统。它是以矿产资源开发利用为主导的自然生态环境、经济与社会复合生态系统。它具有整体性、开放性、地域性、非自律性和人类的主体性等特性;系统发展的主要动力源是自然资源与人类,同时,人类的剧烈干扰打破了矿区自然复合生态系统的营养循环,加剧了矿区生态环境的恶化,使得原本处于生态脆弱区的矿区复合生态系统出现不协调发展。选取平朔矿区作为研究对象,分析平朔矿区复合生态系统内部社会子系统、经济子系统、资源与环境子系统之间的反馈关系。认为:生态环境是社会进步、经济发展的客观条件,社会进步是发展经济的基础与保障,经济建设是影响生态环境的主要原因:并详细分析了各子系统内部的因果反馈关系。将长时间序列分析法、经验模态分解、动力学建模预测等方法用于生态足迹模型的综合,克服了生态足迹模型静态性、不可预测性的缺点,分析了平朔矿区复合生态系统20年间的生态足迹、生态承载力及生态赤字,结果表明:自1999年起矿区土地供给结构和社会经济发展的需求结构之间具有明显不对称性,2008年生态赤字0.7141hm~2/cap;而且其模型预测显示:如果矿区依旧按照目前的消费模式与生态管理方式进行下去,那么复合生态系统的生态赤字会进一步加大。如果采取以维持耕地总量平衡为原则进行人工土地恢复,则系统的生态承载力最大。为了增加生态足迹模型的多样化,分析了平朔矿区复合生态系统的生态足迹指数、生态足迹效率、生态多样性指数和生态经济发展能力,从生态足迹指数看,系统处于弱可持续状态;从生态经济发展能力分析来看,目前及未来一段时间里,平朔矿区复合生态系统的生态经济发展能力增长主要依赖生态足迹的增长,是以牺牲自然资本存量来换取经济增长的,因此,矿区复合生态系统必须探索系统的生态管理方式。矿区生产运作应从链式产业转向生态产业,矿区生活方式从物质文明转向生态文明,矿区管理决策从线性思维转向系统思维,加强矿区土地复垦与生态重建,建立生态产业链式的循环经济发展模式,保证矿区复合生态系统的可持续发展。

【Abstract】 The compound ecosystem in mining area is a complex dynamic ecosystem of multi-level and multi-function.It is a compound ecosystem of natural ecological environment,economy and society which dominated by mineral resources exploitation and utilization. Integrity,openness,regional,non-self-discipline and human subjectivity are its characters. The natural resources and human are the main power for ecosystem development. at the same time,the human’s disturbance broke the naturtion cycling of natural compound ecosystem and aggravated degeneration of ecological environment in mining area, there are out of line development for compound ecosystem in mining area which located in the ecological fragile area.Selected Pingshuo mining area as the research object. analysed the feedback relationship between the society subsystem,economy subsystem, resources and environment subsystem of compound ecosystem in Pingshuo mining area.Indication: ecological environment is the objective conditions of society progress and economy development. Society progress is the foundation and security for economy development. economy development is the main reason which affected the ecological environment, and detaily analysed the cause and effect feedback in various subsystems.Combined the long time sequence analysis method,empirical mode decomposition, dynamic prediction model with ecological footprint model. overcomed the defects of static and unpredictable of ecological footprint model.analysed the ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and ecological deficit of the compound secosystem for Pingshuo mining area in 20 years.The results show that:There is asymmetry between the mining land supply construction and society-economy development demand construction since 1999. the ecological deficit is 0.7141hm2/cap in 2008. Its prediction model indicate that if the current consumption patterns and ecological management continued in Pingshuo mining area, Then the ecological deficit will further increase in compound ecosystem. adopted the principle of overall balance to recover land.the ecological carrying capacity in compound ecosystem is the largest. In order to increase the diversity of ecological footprint model.Analysed the ecological footprint index,ecological footprint efficiency,ecological diversity index and ecological economic development capacity of compound ecosystem in Pingshuo mining area. From the view of ecological footprint index, the system is in weak state.Analysed the ecological economic development capacity, the economic development capacity growth is mainly depended on the growth of ecological footprint of compound ecosystem in Pingshuo mining area at present or the next decade, economy increases at the expense of natural capital stock. Therefore, It is necessary to explore ecosystem management of compound ecosystem in mining area. The production in mining area should shift from industry chain to the ecological industry chain,the life way shift from material civilization to ecological civilization. and the management and decision-making of mining area should shift from linear thinking to system thinking.Strengthen land reclamation and ecological restoration, build the recycling economy development model of ecological industry chain, ensure compound ecosystem in mining area to develop continually.

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