【作者】 吕晓岚；

【导师】 崔彬；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学（北京） ， 资源产业经济， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 随着全球经济的快速发展,尤其是发展中国家工业化程度的不断提升,各国对能源的需求也在急速增长,常规油气资源已经呈现出了供不应求的局面,为了增加能源供应,并且满足可持续发展的需要,对非常规能源进行开发与应用变得越发重要。作为一种非常规天然气,煤层气资源受到了越来越多的关注。我国是仅次于俄罗斯、加拿大的世界第三大煤层气储藏国。据2006年国家新一轮油气资源评价,我国埋深浅于2000m的煤层气地质资源量达到36.81×1012m3,与陆上常规天然气储量相当,发展潜力巨大。近年来,我国政府非常重视对煤层气资源的开发利用,各项有力措施使得我国煤层气产业大规模商业化发展将得以实现。开发煤层气资源所带来的社会效应,它体现在战略影响、煤矿安全、环境保护、能源安全、经济效益五个方面。开发利用煤层气在我国具有特殊的紧迫性和重要性,我国是世界产煤大国,煤层气如不及时开发利用,将伴随着采煤过程继续大量排入大气,既浪费了宝贵资源,又造成温室效应。对煤层气的开发和利用不仅可以缓解我国优质能源供需矛盾,改善能源结构,也可以从根本上保障煤矿安全生产和改善全球大气环境。届时,煤层气资源产业还将成为我国国民经济新的增长点。本文主要把我国的煤层气资源开发应用看作一个产业,从可持续发展的要求出发,利用迈克尔·波特的钻石模型,从生产要素、需求条件、相关支持性产业、同业竞争、政府和机会六个方面对我国的煤层气资源产业发展战略影响因素进行分析。本文采用时间序列预测法中的二次平均移动法和最小二乘法,通过预测未来20年我国天然气的生产量和消费量,确定天然气的供需矛盾;预测未来20年我国煤层气的抽采量,计算出我国煤层气抽采量占天然气生产量的比例,来分析我国煤层气资源开发的发展前景。利用战略管理中常用的SWOT矩阵分析方法,对我国煤层气产业发展外部环境中存在的机会、威胁以及内部条件的优势、劣势进行综合分析,并对各种组合情况进行我国煤层气资源产业发展战略分析。最后结合我国煤层气资源产业发展现状,总结我国煤层气资源产业发展战略。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of the global economy, the energy demands are sharply increased in many countries, especially in some developing continuous. To increase energy supply and meet the sustainable development need, it is important to develop and apply some unconventional energy resources. As one kind of unconventional natural gases, coal-bed methane (CBM) resource is important and gained more usage.China’s CBM reserve is the third largest in the world. According to the oil and gas resource evaluation in China (2006), the geological resources of CBM that underground depth is less than 2000m reach 36.81 trillion m3, and equal to the onshore conventional gas reserves.In recent years, China attaches great importance to the CBM development and utilization, and take various effective action to make large-scale commercialization of CBM. The social effects of development of CBM are the strategic impact, safety of coal mine, environmental protection, energy security, and economic benefits. The development and utilization of CBM in China become urgent and important. If CBM is not timely developed and utilized, it will pollute the atmosphere and result in the greenhouse effect. The development and utilization of CBM can increase energy supply, improve energy structure, protect the coal mine safety and improve the global environment.In this thesis, based on the requirements of sustainable development, CBM resources industrial development strategy factors are analyzed by using Michael Porter’s diamond model. The factors include factors of production, demand conditions, related supporting industries, intra-industry competition, government and opportunities.In this thesis, the industrial development strategy of CBM resources is analyzed by mathematical tools and strategic management tools. The production and consumption of natural gas and the extraction of CBM till 2029 are determined by using time series forecasting method. The proportion of CBM and natural gas can be calculated. By using SWOT matrix, China’s CBM industry development strategy is analyzed.更多还原